OIL PULLS BACK BUT INFLATION RISKS REMAIN AS MARKETS FACE THE FED – w/ K... youtube.com/live/2EYDG9xeLR4… via @YouTube
Great exposure for @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough
RT @TailThatWagsDog: Get your heads around this:
The concept = A dry forest, then sparks.
Crises need two things: dry conditions and a s…
Jon Weaks retweeted
Jeepers. This is a good indicator of where the global airline industry is heading with the current political and economic environment. It’s difficult to argue against these numbers. Perhaps near $1B loss for the FY. That’s brutal and the cost of travel will have to go up to make running an airline viable, unless there is immediate change in the global fuel picture.
American Airlines just announced their financial results for Q3 2026:
Pre Tax Highlights:
- Loss for Q3 2026: $334 Million
- Loss for YTD 2026: $702 Million
American Airlines Group reported third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22, posting total revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year over year and above the top of its guidance range.
Fuel drove the bottom line. American paid an average of $3.85 per gallon in the quarter, raising fuel expense by $1.9 billion, or 67.5%, compared with the third quarter of 2025. The carrier reported a GAAP net loss of $269 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, and an adjusted net loss of $182 million, or $0.28 per share.
Premium revenue rose 22.9% and Main Cabin revenue rose 19.5%. Managed corporate revenue increased 27.6%, the sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth. CASM-ex rose 3.0%.
American ended the quarter with 1,624 aircraft, including 1,037 mainline, and about 141,100 full-time equivalent employees. Total available liquidity stood at $11.8 billion.
For the fourth quarter, American expects revenue growth of 19.5% to 22.5% and an average fuel price of about $4.70 per gallon, which would add roughly $2.8 billion in fuel expense year over year. The company said it expects network growth in 2027 to slow from 2026 levels because of elevated fuel prices.
The airline also reaffirmed plans to install Starlink Wi-Fi across its entire mainline fleet of more than 1,000 aircraft.
Full release from American Airlines, click here: aerocrewnews.com/zqrx
#AmericanAirlines #AirlineEarnings #JetFuel #AirlineIndustry #Aviation #AeroCrewNews
Jon Weaks retweeted
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
Jon Weaks retweeted
You can see the pressure building in the CDS market. Insuring hyperscalers is now very expensive. At the same time, multiples are contracting. The sector is finally coming under pressure.
Jon Weaks retweeted
My friends Anthropic/OAI have about >$800bn in commitments to keep the AI “fire” going, contingent on IPOs /debt offering - what looks to be in double digits % yield
Recall, the 2008 US housing bailout was of a similar size
This is a debt/raise number similar to 2% of US GDP
Jon Weaks retweeted
This is for all the writers ( and want to be writers) in this beautiful community 💖✍🏼👩💻👨🏻💻📝. This gave me some serious guffaws and I hope it does for you as well 👍🏼💙. Happy writing ✍🏼🙏🏼. @LouDPhillips @DzintraSullivan @ChrisBohjalian @therealSIR3 @hwinkler4real @AuthorFleur @donnacox1021 @drdoomed01 @jameshealyjr
Jon Weaks retweeted
I sense $NVDA may take extreme measures, as if guaranteeing returns to their client debt investors is not extreme enough.
Extreme-er on the Horizon!!
(IMHO We have an inventory problem, soon to be a rev rec problem).
Jon Weaks retweeted
The NFL and the Philadelphia Eagles almost killed Jalen Hurts for a Week 5 international showcase.
The full details of what happened behind closed doors in London just surfaced, and the negligence is staggering.
Before kickoff in London, Hurts was in a hospital bed until 4:00 AM undergoing emergency vascular testing. Medical staff instructed him not to sleep because sleep was considered an active health risk.
Instead of shutting down their $255 million franchise quarterback, the team cleared him to play 60 minutes of brutal, high-impact collision football on zero sleep.
Then, they loaded him onto a pressurized, 8-hour transatlantic flight back to Philadelphia.
Every doctor on the planet knows that long-haul flights and cabin pressure are the exact triggers that cause lower-extremity blood clots to break free. The Eagles spent days assuring the public it was just a "minor, superficial calf clot".
Now the truth comes out: the clot dislodged, shot through his bloodstream, and caused multiple pulmonary emboli in his lungs.
Hurts is officially out for the season, placed on blood thinners where taking a single routine tackle could cause a fatal internal hemorrhage.
He isn't just lucky to play football again, he is lucky to be alive.
When the NFL preaches "player safety," remember this moment. They ran a human being into the ground for television ratings in the UK, almost lost him to a preventable medical catastrophe, and cratered their entire season in the process.
Who inside that building signed off on letting him play and board that flight?
Jon Weaks retweeted
JUST IN: Judge Reyes takes note of Trump’s post re the golf course and asks whether the government is abandoning its original position that there has been no final decision. She’s also summoning @ASGWoodward to court Monday, presumably to address his disqualification motion.
Jon Weaks retweeted
Part 2, and my last post about my Shawn Ryan Show episode.
Last I heard, it had been edited. Then Shawn went on Diary of a CEO and described a woman whose interview he’d never release. That woman wasn’t me, unless he was lying.
But I never expected it to air, and here’s why:
I spent weeks prepping with Shawn’s team. I was booked to follow the money on TPUSA and the surveillance state, and naming names is what I do. I’m meticulous, and I never say anything I can’t prove. Then, right before we started filming, I was told I couldn’t name names. When I brought up who funds Flock Safety, the license plate cameras now in thousands of American towns, I was told not to say Andreessen Horowitz or Peter Thiel. You can’t follow the money without showing where the money flows. That’s when I realized this episode would never air, before we had even started.
So when I got home, I did what I do. I followed the money. And, turns out Shawn Ryan is invested in companies backed by the exact people I was told not to name, plus Israel.
(1) Anduril Industries: Ryan has been an investor since October 2025. Anduril started with surveillance towers and now builds drones and autonomous weapons. Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led its June 2025 round, and Andreessen Horowitz co-led its $5 billion round in May 2026. Those are the two names I was told to leave out. In February 2026, Anduril’s founder, Palmer Luckey, made an undisclosed trip to Israel and met with Netanyahu and senior defense officials. By June, Anduril was setting up an Israel operation to sell to Israel’s Ministry of Defense. Shawn had Palmer on his show in February 2025 and invested eight months later.
(2) Shield AI: Ryan has been an investor since November 2025. It builds AI-piloted drones and fighter jets. Andreessen Horowitz led its first major round and has kept investing ever since. Shawn had its co-founder on the show the same season he invested.
(3) Sesh: Ryan has been an investor since August 2025. Its $40 million round was led by 8VC, the venture firm of Joe Lonsdale, who co-founded Palantir with Peter Thiel. Lonsdale was a guest on Shawn’s show on May 7, 2026, less than three months before I taped. Palantir signed a strategic partnership with Israel’s Ministry of Defense in 2024.
And Flock Safety, the company I came to talk about, is backed by Andreessen Horowitz, which led two of its rounds, and by Founders Fund, Peter Thiel’s fund.
So I was booked to expose who funds the surveillance state. I was told not to name Andreessen Horowitz or Peter Thiel. And the host has money in companies backed by Andreessen Horowitz, by Thiel’s fund, and by Thiel’s Palantir co-founder, including one that is building its business in Israel.
Then there’s the rest of it. Sarah Adams, his former network host, was messaging his team to keep me off (see Part 1 if you missed it). An IDF settlement contractor tagged the two of them together. Pro-Israel groups passed around her clip from his show as proof that Israel didn’t drive the war. And after his Diary of a CEO interview, accounts from the same network that spent the summer smearing me told everyone his “CIA woman” was me, citing “sources.” It wasn’t me. I never discussed a polygraph with Shawn Ryan, and it was never why I went on. So either he was talking about someone else, or somebody turned his story into a weapon against me.
Honestly, I don’t want the episode to air, and I told them so right after we taped, because it was a watered-down version of my work. How it all happened was a tough lesson learned for me in this industry. Now you know what was going on behind the scenes. If this episode doesn’t air, I can assure you it’s not because I’m a fraud. It’s because I won’t water down who funds the surveillance state, and I won’t sell out to protect anyone’s investments.
So there you have it.
Jon Weaks retweeted
Eric Deters has released the 16 minute phone call from Greece where Kimberly Guilfoyle is accused of accepting up to $3 million in bribes, doing cocaine, and (allegedly) leaking government information to China.
This is absolutely wild.
































