A Fountain of Useless Information: Business, Sports & anything else interesting or funny. Un-retired accountant, economist, stockbroker. Former Series 4 license
All over
Joined October 2011
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Female Chiefs fan calls KC sports radio station to talk about them signing Justin Tucker….absolutely on point…no notes!
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WOW -- Trump's riff about Jon Husted's ass is interrupted by somebody yelling, "Trump went on Epstein's plane!"
The protester flips Trump fans the bird as he's hauled out
Trump is then immediately interrupted by another protester!
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Bloomberg: "A new anxiety is gripping Wall Street as it bankrolls the vast network of data centers and chips behind the artificial intelligence boom: Early signs suggest that the credit market is approaching the limits of how much more debt it can absorb.
One after another, yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors."
#economy #markets #debt #ai #ArtificialIntelligence #bonds
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Downtown Seattle's decline is impossible to ignore...
The city's PLUMMETING commercial real estate valuations tell the story
Just look at these recent deals:
Roosevelt Commons: Bought for $157M in 2019, sold for $27M - an ~83% discount
901 Fifth Avenue: $304M in 2019, sold for $48M - an ~84% discount
Plaza 600: Valued at $97M in a 2019, sold for $12.5M - a MASSIVE ~87% decline
And it's not just office buildings. Retail centers and hotels have been DECIMATED over the last several years
Seattle was truly one of the great American cities but has been destroyed in recent years due to obvious reasons
How does downtown Seattle recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
Around half of Seattle businesses report that are considering moving or shrinking, blaming a business environment that they say is getting worse and don’t believe it looks like it will get better, according to a survey from the Downtown Seattle Association and Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce. kiro7.com/news/local/survey-…
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Phil Mickelson owed money to his Las Vegas gambling buddy, Billy Walters. Billy gave him a secret stock tip, Phil made $931,000 in a week and paid him back. Billy went to prison for 5 years. Phil was never charged.
When Billy got out, he wrote a book about Phil.
More than $1 billion in bets, by Billy's count.
In the video below, Billy tells ESPN what would have kept him out of prison.
Billy spent decades as one of the biggest sports bettors in America. Phil was his golf partner, his friend and a man who owed him money.
July 2012. Phil owes Billy gambling money. Billy calls him and tells him to buy Dean Foods.
Billy's information came from a Dean Foods board member. He owed Billy money too.
A week later, the stock jumped 40%. Phil sold with more than $931,000 in profit. In September, he paid Billy back, partly with that money.
The money went in a circle. Only one man went to prison.
In 2016, the SEC named Phil a "relief defendant." That means he wasn't accused of anything, but he was holding money that wasn't his to keep. He paid back $1,037,029 and never admitted or denied a thing.
In 2017, Billy was convicted and got 5 years. Phil never testified.
"All Phil had to do was publicly say it. He refused," Billy wrote.
While Billy was inside, his daughter died. He wrote that he still believes he could have saved her if he'd been on the outside.
In 2023, his book came out. At least $1 billion wagered. At least $100 million lost. More than 1,115 bets over $100,000. Phil denied one claim: "I never bet on the Ryder Cup."
$931,000: what Phil made on the tip.
5 years: what Billy got.
$1 billion: what Billy says Phil bet.
Phil kept his silence, his career and a reported $200 million LIV deal.
Billy kept the receipts.
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I think this is the right take. There could be some modest downward pressure in ON, but worst is behind us. Quebec and BC will grind lower most likely. AB flat-ish.
Hanif continues to turn out fantastic content both on @WOWA_Canada and in these Globe features
📉 The 2023 rebound was a false bottom.
🇨🇦 MLS benchmark: $651,400, down 22.5% from the 2022 peak and the lowest since Feb 2021.
🔻 Ontario: −26.7% from peak. The typical home has lost ~$269K.
🔻 B.C.: −4.7% y/y, falling fast.
🔼 Quebec: hit record high in April.
🏔️Alberta: 3.6% off its peak.
🔮 My take for 2027:
No growth in ON or BC, and likely flat in QC and AB too.
My latest @globeandmail column 👇
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Provided by WOWA
Simply Know Your Options🔍
Trump is killing the U.S. economy. Imports are up; exports are down!
“The Sept. U.S. trade deficit in goods was $134.9 billion, the highest ever recorded in September. There were only three months in history when the deficit was higher, all under Trump in 2025.”
The Sept. U.S. trade deficit in goods was $134.9 billion, the highest ever recorded in Sept. There were only three months in history when the deficit was higher, all under Trump in 2025.
Here are the facts. Measured by the size of our trade deficits, Trump has been the worst president in history on trade. The tariffs have been a complete failure. Not only have they failed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but the U.S. is now more dependent than ever on foreign producers. Not only are we importing more than ever, but we are now paying Trump's tariffs on those imports.
Trump says trade deficits represent a loss. Judged by his own standard, Trump is the biggest loser in the history of the presidency. Also, if the economy is booming as Republicans claim, why have our trade deficits gone way up? Why are the trade deficits under Trump so much larger than they were under Biden, when, according to Trump, we had the worst economy in U.S. history?
Here are the facts. When you compare Trump's first two years to Biden's last two, GDP growth and job creation are slower, inflation is higher, and budget and trade deficits are bigger. If Trump is right that under Biden we had the worst economy in history, and the Trump economy is objectively worse on all counts, then the Trump economy is now the worst economy in history.
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quite the scene at the UN yesterday as tough guy Mike Waltz cuts a WWE promo on the Cuban delegation
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The most interesting about this graphic is that it was created and shared by Al Jazeera.
Lots of potential AI doom and gloom:
All possible? But how probable? Or not?
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
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Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
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CMHC just dropped the Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report.
Among private lenders in the GTHA, 11.1% of mortgage dollars are 90+ days in arrears. Rest of Canada: 3.8%. In Q3 2023 that GTHA number was 3.0%.
Same book: 69.7% interest-only. 9.2% of balances over 80% LTV (was 1.6% in early 2024). 29% of balances belong to borrowers paying more than 60% of income toward debt.
CMHC sees Ontario 90+ day delinquency going from 0.33% to 0.44% by June 2027. Toronto is the most exposed CMA.
This is the first official data showing the private-lender corner of the GTA is where stress is piling up. CMHC says it could be an early signal for the wider market.
cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professional…
I think for $14,000 per room, I’d buy it!
Downtown Minneapolis just took a MASSIVE hit...
The Royal Sonesta, an upscale 360 room hotel, just sold for just $5M - a BRUTAL 93% 'discount' from its $75M purchase price in 2018
That's just ~$14K per room, down from ~$208K just 8 years ago...
Here's the interesting part:
The location is genuinely prime by downtown Minneapolis standards
It's an upscale, 4-star property in the HEART of DT Minneapolis, steps from Nicollet Mall and connected to the city's skyway system
It's genuinely WILD seeing hotels like this being sold at 90%+ discounts, even knowing what's driving these sales...
What does the future hold for Minneapolis?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
This makes a good point….
