James McKay

Prediction: The number of public companies holding #bitcoin on their balance sheet will at least double in 2025. Currently we’re at around 70. Chart h/t @HODL15Capital

We're not in 2018 anymore, but the fact remains: #Crypto is still making inefficiencies great again, hence why it is attracting managers like ants to honey....but the dispersion is huge. Through Aug, we've a year-to-date return of 56.6% at the top decile of fundamental funds, compared with a 13.4% loss at the bottom decile. That's a 70% gap between top and bottom deciles. Chart h/t @CIG_Crypto

That’s actually lower than the bear case. Mr. Bond Market may agree. #Bitcoin

BlackRock's new downside protection #Bitcoin ETF *does* address one of the major hold-outs for institutionals (high beta). But it *does not* provide investors with comparable $BTC spot exposure, but instead achieves this via call-option spreads + short-term fixed-income securities. Ergo, a different animal.

Fair enough that people in #crypto are getting CLARITY punch-drunk, but let's not forget that we're just a few years removed from an SEC chair who took over 15 enforcement actions against #DigitalAssets players and still couldn't tell us whether #Ethereum was a security.

The wind down of the Bitwise $Doge ETF is just one sign of many that the #memecoin mania has gone the way of NFTs: overestimated in the short-term. Whether they'll be underestimated in the long-term, a la Roy Amara, remains to be seen, but not for now: chart h/t @coinmetrics

It might just be a bit too much for some people to handle, but some do find security in owning a security. And that’s OK. #Bitcoin

Fueling this narrative was that central bank #gold reserves eclipsed $USD reserves, but that was largely due to gold going parabolic rather than a wholesale dumping of USD-denominated assets, and the bond auctions bear this out. Yes, the USD will lose its lustre...but not yet.

Every #crypto cycle has its flagship theme: • ICOs — 2017 to early 2018 • DeFi / NFTs — mid-2020 to 2021 • Memecoins — late 2023 to early 2025 • Institutionals/ETFs — 2024 (ongoing) — Some of these will make a return in the next cycle, no. 3 on the list will not.

*Bullish* Winklevoss twins file an S-1 registration with the SEC for what could become the second Zcash ETF. Bottom in or not, sentiment is back. zcash:native #crypto

Treasuries have to ultimately have a thesis, and it is the thesis that underpins *long*-term strategy. If a company cannot withstand drawdowns typical of the cyclicality, they either have a poorly formulated strategy or have fundamentally misunderstood #Bitcoin as an asset.

A harbinger for a US equities valuations reset?

The bear has exposed the fragility of DAT models whose differentiation relied on premium-driven capital formation–>the compression of that financing advantage means DATs will be judged on what they can control: BPS, asset accretion, capital allocation, liquidity mgt etc #Bitcoin

Translation: “I don’t have a position.” #bitcoin