Mejid X 🪙

Ibn Khaldun, Long Cycles, and the Path to Strategic Renewal Nick Danforth correctly observes that no one in Washington has a coherent plan for the consequences of American relative decline. U.S. policy signals are already prompting Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense, shifting NATO’s center of gravity and creating both opportunities for a more balanced alliance and risks of reduced cohesion. History supplies essential context. In the 14th-century Muqaddimah, Ibn Khaldun outlined the life cycle of civilizations through five stages triumph, leisure, contentment, extravagance, and decline typically spanning three generations. At its core is asabiyyah, or social cohesion, which erodes amid prosperity and internal division. He identified four principal accelerants of decline: appointing unqualified persons to authority, marginalizing scholars and experts, replacing the rule of law with coercion, and diverting public treasuries to private gain. These insights align with George Modelski’s long-cycle theory of roughly century-long sequences of global conflict, hegemonic ascent, legitimacy erosion, and decentralization. Sustaining influence across such cycles requires comprehensive national power military, economic, political, and cultural underpinned by leadership that preserves cohesion and fosters adaptation. Societies, nations, and individuals often fall prey to the illusion that hard-won gains, once secured, will endure without further sacrifice. This complacency is especially common among the generations that inherit the achievements of strong founding figures without fully appreciating the effort required to sustain them. The United States offers a striking example. The dollar’s global dominance has long afforded the country significant economic influence, while the marriage of capitalism and democracy has increasingly given way to a form of predatory capitalism, one that concentrates wealth and power among a few while leaving the needs of the majority unmet. The push toward war with Iran can be understood not only as a matter of security, but also as a struggle over geography and influence one that risks serving the interests of arms manufacturers, financial institutions, energy corporations, and political elites. These conflicts also expose a growing challenge: even the most advanced weapons can be costly to deploy against far cheaper alternatives. Meanwhile, the national debt continues to mount, leaving future generations to bear the consequences of decisions made today. A nation’s power, like its prosperity, is never guaranteed; both depend on choices that can either preserve hard-won advantages or squander them. The United States was central to the post-1945 international order, delivering stability and broad prosperity while also drawing valid criticism for military interventions and the uneven costs of globalization. In an emerging multipolar world, no nation holds a monopoly on virtue or foresight. All major actors bear responsibility for steering these transitions toward constructive outcomes rather than escalation. In this pivotal moment, the future will favor those who prioritize prudent realism, institutional renewal, and collaborative leadership over confrontation. True greatness lies in building a more resilient and equitable global order grounded in peace, shared prosperity, and human dignity. See also my Arab News article, “Timeless Leadership Lessons for a Turbulent World.” “A nation’s power, like its prosperity, is never guaranteed; both depend on choices that can either preserve hard-won advantages or squander them.” Read the article and comments by Turki Faisal Al Rasheed / Riyadh: @NicholasDanfort No One Has a Plan for American Decline - Amid Washington’s fractious foreign-policy debate, there’s one possibility too grim to think about. foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/29…