WHAT WE SHARED WITH FELLOW AFRICANS ABOUT SOUTH AFRICA’S SOYBEAN INDUSTRY SUCCESS 🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA’S SOYBEAN INDUSTRY IS EXEMPLARY. Countries on our African continent can learn from what South African farmers and value chain stakeholders have done. I am joining the Africa Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ANAPRI) conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, virtually to share our story. This morning, we are reflecting on Africa’s vegetable oilseed markets. Africa’s soybean production is around 6 million tonnes. South Africa accounts for roughly half of this. The soybean growth in South Africa is driven by the rising demand from the poultry industry. I briefly told of a journey through South Africa’s soybean industry this morning. Amongst other things, I stated that South Africa’s soybean crop has grown notably over the years. Growing demand for soybean oilcake or meal from the animal feed industry has stimulated this growth. This, in turn, has been driven by increased demand for high-protein foods, particularly poultry products. South Africa’s per capita consumption of poultry meat has almost doubled over the past 17 years and is currently estimated at around 41 kilograms. To meet the growing demand, South African agribusinesses, supported by the government, invested to increase domestic soybean processing capacity from roughly 860,000 tonnes in 2012 to 3.0 million tonnes today. This was part of the broader import-substitution strategy to stimulate domestic soybean production. Farmers responded positively to these demand changes, stimulating investment, as evidenced by an expected ample harvest. This positive production response was underpinned by increased cultivated area and technological improvements, such as seeds, fertilisers, and improved farming practices. Most importantly, investment in expanding South Africa’s soybean processing capacity and improving production techniques has created a success story in soybean meal import substitution. South Africa is now a net exporter of soybeans. This is quite a progress from where we were in 2006. In 2006/07, over 80% of local soybean meal consumption was imported, but South Africa is now a net exporter. This is a success story worth emulating, and we had to share it with fellow Africans.

IF SOUTH AFRICA WERE EXCLUDED FROM AGOA, the country would face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs the current U.S. Administration added to various countries. Currently, some South African products enter the U.S. market at 12.5% tariffs (Liberation Day tariff). Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, slightly reducing the competitiveness of South African agricultural products in the U.S. market. Still, one could argue that while this would be a challenging path, IT WOULD NOT NECESSARILY BE AS CATASTROPHIC as we have faced in the past, when it faced much higher U.S. tariffs and still managed to compete. For example, in 2025, those of us in the South African farming sector faced tariffs of around 30%. Still, exports to the U.S. were strong. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2025 totalled US$504 million, down 3% from the previous year.

The current heatwave across the country is worrying. If this is a taste of what we will experience during this El Niño-induced drought of the 2026-27 summer, then we are in for a challenging time, particularly for those of us in agriculture.