Mohamed Addow

#SecurityAlert The Resurgence of Al-Shabaab in Somalia: Deteriorating Security, Political Deadlock and the Growing Disillusionment of Somalia’s International Partners There has been a significant increase in terrorist activities carried out by Al-Shabaab across Somalia, including a series of attacks in southern Somalia and Puntland over the past several weeks. These attacks have resulted in casualties among security forces and civilians alike. Al-Shabaab has carried out several deadly attacks in areas under the administration of South West State, particularly in Buurhakaba, Baidoa and Leego. The group has also launched two to three attacks in the Bari region of Puntland, an area where it had not conducted operations for a considerable period. These developments are being interpreted as an indication that the group is regaining momentum and reviving its campaign against FGS and the country’s Federal Member States. Security sources suggest that Al-Shabaab’s renewed operational momentum may be linked to the involvement of foreign governments opposed to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political leadership. However, these allegations remain unverified and cannot be independently substantiated at this stage. A regional diplomat has confirmed to me that dissatisfaction with the Somali President’s political leadership has increasingly fuelled discussions about creating alternative centres of power within the country, even if such developments were to require a reassessment of Somalia’s territorial and political map. The diplomat further indicated that a number of countries have become increasingly receptive to the prospect of Al-Shabaab reaching political accommodation with certain regional administrations, suggesting that some external actors may be willing to adjust their positions to facilitate such arrangements. The debate surrounding the interconnected nature of Somalia’s security and political challenges has intensified in recent months, particularly following the conclusion of the UN’s political and operational presence in Somalia, alongside the commencement of the previously agreed plans to reduce the number of AUSSOM troops. Political and security analysts have criticised the FGS leadership for failing to adequately communicate to the Somali public that the conclusion of the UN’s presence and the phased reduction of AUSSOM forces were planned developments, agreed upon well in advance, rather than sudden or unexpected events. They argue that the government’s failure to provide clear and timely public communication has allowed other actors to impose misleading interpretations on these developments, fuelling uncertainty, public anxiety and concerns about the country’s security arrangements and political transition. Despite the considerable frustration expressed by Somalia’s international partners over the way the country’s political affairs have been managed, most have chosen to remain largely silent, limiting their involvement to observing developments from the sidelines. Nevertheless, several countries have reportedly taken a more assertive approach, at both regional and international levels, by investing political and diplomatic resources in efforts that undermine Somalia’s political order and institutions in pursuit of their own strategic agendas. The widening political divide between the Federal Government and the opposition is creating dangerous opportunities for terrorist organisations and external actors seeking to turn Somalia into a theatre of persistent conflict, instability and geopolitical competition, preventing the emergence of a strong and functional state. Such actors seek to exploit Somalia’s vulnerabilities to advance their own interests, including securing influence over the country’s territory, territorial waters and strategic resources, according to the concerns raised in these political and diplomatic circles. #FGS #UNSOMALIA #AUSSOM #AlShabaab #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA

#SecurityAlert The AS ambush on SNA between Lego and Jameeco exposes a serious intelligence and operational security failure that demands immediate investigation and accountability. Authorising a military convoy to move without confirming that its route was secure suggests a grave breakdown in threat assessment, intelligence coordination, and operational planning. The apparent failure to protect the convoy’s movements and schedule also raises serious concerns about information security and possible intelligence leaks. Command responsibility must not be overlooked. An independent investigation should determine how the move was authorised, what intelligence concerning the enemy movement ahead was available, which security protocols were followed, and where the chain of command failed. Anyone whose negligence, dereliction of duty, or poor judgement contributed to the incident must be held accountable. These failures require decisive corrective action to prevent a recurrence. #Villasomalia #MOD #SNA #AS #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA #EA

#RegionalSecurity Somalia Caught Between Regional Blocs: Strategic Balancing in the Horn of Africa The quadrilateral meeting between the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan in Egypt was largely about Ethiopia, although Ethiopia was rarely mentioned explicitly. However, the outcome appeared to be largely rhetorical, with the commitments made likely to be very difficult to translate into concrete action. Egypt has consistently sought to increase pressure on the Ethiopian leadership in order to gain concessions over the Nile issue. Eritrea, meanwhile, has its own strategic objective of weakening Ethiopian regional influence and preventing the restoration of Ethiopian hegemony. Sudan could also emerge in a stronger position if the Sudanese Armed Forces succeed in defeating the RSF, allowing Khartoum to balance its engagement with Ethiopia more effectively. But where does this leave Somalia? Regional analysts have viewed President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attendance at the meeting largely as a symbolic gesture. Before the meeting, he also consulted with the President of Djibouti regarding the possible outcome and implications. His earlier meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also clearly indicated the limitations of what Somalia could contribute to the Alemayn meeting. There is certainly no strong strategic trust between Ethiopia and Somalia, either today or historically. However, Ethiopia possesses significant leverage over Somalia in several areas, including its military presence in Somalia, its role in counterterrorism operations, and, perhaps most importantly, its ability to support or influence the Somaliland recognition agenda. That leverage is likely to remain relevant sooner or later unless there is a fundamental change in the relationship. Egypt and Eritrea cannot match Ethiopia’s level of presence and influence in Somalia, particularly given Ethiopia’s long border with Somalia, its extensive security interests, and its ability to influence issues that directly affect Somalia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national unity. In this context, both sides of the regional rivalry can understand Somalia’s difficult position. Mogadishu cannot easily choose one camp without exposing itself to significant strategic risks. For now, both blocs may be willing to give Somalia some political space, but the real question is: for how long? Somalia’s position is therefore one of strategic balancing rather than genuine alignment. It may understand where its interests lie, but its ability to act on those interests is constrained by the realities of geography, security, political dependence, and Ethiopia’s existing leverage. Ultimately, if you are not strong enough to stand on your own, you need a wall against which you can put your back. Somalia currently lacks that strategic wall, and that is precisely why its position in the emerging regional competition remains so difficult. #Somalia #Ethiopia #Eritrea #Djibouti #Sudan #Egypt #Somaliland #HornOfAfrica #RedSea #Geopolitics #RegionalSecurity #EastAfrica

#SecurityAlert As the Wargelin Analytica team reported several weeks ago, Al Shabaab received advanced weapons and drone technology that crossed from Yemen and were subsequently supplied to Al Shabaab bases in the Golis Mountains in Bari and Sanaag regions. Some of these shipments were reportedly transported onward to Al Shabaab strongholds in Middle Jubba. The United States subsequently took decisive action, conducting strikes against Al Shabaab positions in the Sanaag region, including areas assessed to contain weapons storage and related facilities. According to the report, Al Shabaab had been preparing to deploy both drone technology and GPS-guided missiles against high-value targets after establishing and training a specialised team to operate these systems. #AlShabaab #Somalia #US #AFRICOM #Houthi #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA #EA