no one listens anyway.

Joined January 2023
Keep in mind that I’m only one early voting analyst. Most have rosier takes. Go follow @RealSKeshel and @earlyvotedata for different perspectives!
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Just wrapped up our pitches in support of the @xrpl_commons #AI #Hackathon and me and my good friend (Shellfish) @XRPeaceOfMind are patiently awaiting the results! Wish us Yahuah's speed! 💪🏿🔥❤️💜👑🫡
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Replying to @zerohedge
We simply enforced our terms of service when they were bypassed. There has been no change to our terms of service.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
But they are voting FFS this alarmism is growing so old.
🚨🚨 Just got off the phone with Tarrant County election insiders who broke down what is becoming a five-alarm warning: Democrats are outvoting Republicans here. For perspective, Tarrant is the last large red urban county in America. It is GROUND ZERO for flipping Texas. While Tarrant has more registered Republicans than Democrats, Ds have done a better job of turnout than Rs for the last several elections. REMINDER: In 2018 Beto beat Cruz in Tarrant by over 4k votes. I am told that even though Ds typically outperform Rs in early voting, the reduced percentage of Rs early voting against Ds at this point signals a major warning. Texas will be lost if Republicans don’t vote. Make sure EVERYONE you know votes. There is no greater priority right now. The people I spoke with are solid officials who are not prone to sounding the alarm unnecessarily, so this is a legitimately serious issue. 🚨🚨
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Correct. Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be. Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them. Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week. Starlink remains critical to the defense of Ukraine, as it is the only system that cannot be jammed or blown up, at least for now. Were Starlink to be turned off, the Ukrainian front line would collapse immediately. This is NOT a threat, it is simply a statement of fact. Starlink was also crucial to preventing Russia from overrunning Ukraine in the early days of the war, as all other means of communication were destroyed or jammed by Russia. SpaceX has done more to defend Ukraine than any private company on Earth BY FAR. That said, I have nothing but UTTER CONTEMPT for the virtue-signaling evil warmongers who push for endless slaughter and offer no realistic solution to the conflict. May you burn in hell. End of story.
STARLINK WORKS THE SAME WAY ITS ALWAYS WORKED. ITS NOT A WEAPONS SYSTEM, NO MATTER HOW MUCH UKRAINE WANTS IT TO BE.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Kiwi Farms user breaks down 'Izzat', the Indian subcontinent's cultural honor system. It effectively explains every single trope about Indian behavior: they all participate in an invisible clout-chasing game that involves screwing over everyone as much as possible. Worth the read
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FYI, I have multiple followers tell me that Danielle Reiff is reaching out to them. The common vein seems to be that they are targeting podcasters & influencers on the right.
They got caught planning to declare our government illegitimate. Now someone in their circle wants a sit-down with me. What would you ask them? JoinTAB.us 23 October 2026 #vote #midterms #tab #leadwhereyoulive
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
When I make a post about presidential turnout, here’s what I mean A county matching 100% of its presidential turnout brings a powerful load of votes. Travis County (Austin, TX) had 103% of its 2016 presidential votes cast in the 2018 TX Senate race. So did a number of suburban counties that slid left. Red turnout was solid, but was roughly 80-85% of presidential in most key counties. So if you know a state, then the percentage of presidential votes casts matters. To win NY, you’d want to see NYC running way behind and red areas closing fast on presidential totals. If the blues vote, they win. Likewise, in these red states like Ohio, if the urban areas are supposed to be front loading and they are sitting in the basement and the reds are ahead, it means the electorate will be disproportionately made up of heavy red counties doing more voting relative to the blues than they did in a presidential. If all counties matched their presidential baseline vote count, then you could start slinging independent and crossover differentials.
Huge news for Dems in Ohio. Montgomery County (Dayton) moves from 88th to 87th in percentage of 2024 presidential votes cast (10.6% of total). They have 27,289 ballots in, from 256,544 for president in 2024 and 187,429 for Senate in 2022. They’d been at 88th for six days straight. There are 88 counties in Ohio.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
What’s actually going on in Ukraine is that there is a massive incentive difference between the elites and the people. The former have grown very rich off the hundreds of billions flowing to Ukraine, while the latter’s children are conscripted to die in trenches.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
.@metpoliceuk, this looks like a good way to blow your co-worker’s legs off. 1. Make sure your finger is on the trigger. 2. Make sure you are pointing the gun at someone.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
🚨EVERY AMERICAN NEEDS TO WATCH THIS🚨 If you want to understand this entire playbook and what has been happening, watch this video. @DataRepublican is the only person I know that can make it understandable. Every American needs to understand what you’re up against. If you love this country and our constitution, freedom and liberty you have to share this everywhere. All socials. Get it out. @iamlisalogan and I have struggled for a long time trying to figure out how to explain this, connect all of the dots and make it understandable. Everything is connected. The immigration, lawfare, interfaith, protests, policy push, structural change, the push for “equity,” the push for the changes in our economy, literally everything the left has been doing has been planned and organized for years. The Obama administration, the Biden administration, the UN, foreign governments, NGOs, foreign funding. It’s all tied. Bookmark it. Watch it over and over. Understand it as deeply as you can. We have a country to save!
🚨🚨 THE ILLEGITIMACY PLAYBOOK / THE DEMOCRACY FILES: A PRIMER 🚨 I will be using this thread to track all drops, so bookmark it. I spent most of yesterday backing everything (now 312 gigabytes) up in various sources and getting the materials out to others. I also produced an AI video (below) to explain the whole thing to others are not on 𝕏 - feel free to distribute. Here's the primer: USAID, the foreign aid agency, had a democracy office. Inside the agency, it was called DRG. Officially, DRG administered "democracy assistance." They'd go inside countries they thought were sliding into authoritarianism and help the opposition there. That assistance included election monitoring, judicary support, independent media, and civil society building. You may have heard the term "color revolution." The model comes from Serbia in 2000, where trained student activists brought down Milosevic with the help of Western governments, after sustained protests. With the help of USAID's democracy office, this model was implemented in many other countries to topple governments: Georgia's "Rose Revolution" in 2003, Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in 2004, and many more. Then last year, DOGE shut down USAID. But the USAID democracy office didn't stop. They formed a group called the Democracy Renewal Group, the same initials as their office (USAID Democracy, Human Rights, Governance). Their goal: apply their own playbook to the United States itself. This goal became a plan, called Renew American Democracy (RAD). It invoked the "4 B's" framework. Block - use lawfare and protests to make life harder for the Trump administration. Bridge & Belong - control dialogue and win people over. The final and most important B is Build. Build means redesigning the American government itself, and the crisis is the opening. In their own words: "We can take that breakdown moment and leverage it for a big structural reform, you know, refounding moment." - Danielle Reiff, DRG lead. Calls show DRG working alongside DSA on ideas of creating a different government, one that does away with the Constitution itself. DRG does not run the Block operations. They hand it to UDA, the United Democracy Alliance. One organizer calls it a "huge galaxy": lawsuits, street protests, non-cooperation. They list No Kings, Indivisible, MoveOn, 50501, and many other mega-activist NGOs among their members. Another organizer calls UDA Erica Chenoweth's project. Chenoweth is the Harvard professor behind the three-and-half-percent rule of regime change: get that share of a country's populace onto the streets, and historically, the movement wins. The UDA is very "hush-hush." They have no website, no roster, no filings. Then come the red lines: things the Trump administration could do, such as calling the Insurrection Act on protesters, that would mean that the federal government, in their words, "crosses the threshold into illegitimacy." Nobody voted on those lines. There was no public debate. These red lines were developed within secretive working groups, and in a paper addressed to governors and staff. In the words of Reiff/DRG: "So that if there is a red line crossed in terms of a Constitutional crisis, like everyone's already pre-organized. And so Mike Smith actually said, he goes, oh, you guys have the day after tomorrow plan." Cross a line, and the paper's options include states refusing to lend their resources to federal officials, and governors convening what it calls a "Third Continential Congress." Running the UDA's Insurrection Act working group: Rear Admiral Mike Smith (RET) of National Security Leaders of America (NSL4A). NSL4A is also credited with operationalizing UDA, the blocking operations. NSL4A consists of about 1,600 ex-officers, spies, diplomats. They're turning red lines into indicators and running a situation room to monitor them throughout the midterms and beyond. The NSL4A's lawyers told them to stop recording meetings in case of subpoenas. But the rest of the network continued to record. DRG works in conjunction with Renew to Thrive (R2T), which ended up accidentally publishing 400+ calls and thousands of documents. These calls and documents were never meant for our eyes, but it's them, on tape. Thousands of NGOs and billions of dollars are involved in this endeavor. Most of them believe they're saving democracy. The problem is that people who spent their careers deciding when other countries' governments had lost their legitimacy wrote that test for ours, in private, and planned for what comes after. Who decides when your government is legitimate?
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🚨🚨 THE ILLEGITIMACY PLAYBOOK / THE DEMOCRACY FILES: A PRIMER 🚨 I will be using this thread to track all drops, so bookmark it. I spent most of yesterday backing everything (now 312 gigabytes) up in various sources and getting the materials out to others. I also produced an AI video (below) to explain the whole thing to others are not on 𝕏 - feel free to distribute. Here's the primer: USAID, the foreign aid agency, had a democracy office. Inside the agency, it was called DRG. Officially, DRG administered "democracy assistance." They'd go inside countries they thought were sliding into authoritarianism and help the opposition there. That assistance included election monitoring, judicary support, independent media, and civil society building. You may have heard the term "color revolution." The model comes from Serbia in 2000, where trained student activists brought down Milosevic with the help of Western governments, after sustained protests. With the help of USAID's democracy office, this model was implemented in many other countries to topple governments: Georgia's "Rose Revolution" in 2003, Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in 2004, and many more. Then last year, DOGE shut down USAID. But the USAID democracy office didn't stop. They formed a group called the Democracy Renewal Group, the same initials as their office (USAID Democracy, Human Rights, Governance). Their goal: apply their own playbook to the United States itself. This goal became a plan, called Renew American Democracy (RAD). It invoked the "4 B's" framework. Block - use lawfare and protests to make life harder for the Trump administration. Bridge & Belong - control dialogue and win people over. The final and most important B is Build. Build means redesigning the American government itself, and the crisis is the opening. In their own words: "We can take that breakdown moment and leverage it for a big structural reform, you know, refounding moment." - Danielle Reiff, DRG lead. Calls show DRG working alongside DSA on ideas of creating a different government, one that does away with the Constitution itself. DRG does not run the Block operations. They hand it to UDA, the United Democracy Alliance. One organizer calls it a "huge galaxy": lawsuits, street protests, non-cooperation. They list No Kings, Indivisible, MoveOn, 50501, and many other mega-activist NGOs among their members. Another organizer calls UDA Erica Chenoweth's project. Chenoweth is the Harvard professor behind the three-and-half-percent rule of regime change: get that share of a country's populace onto the streets, and historically, the movement wins. The UDA is very "hush-hush." They have no website, no roster, no filings. Then come the red lines: things the Trump administration could do, such as calling the Insurrection Act on protesters, that would mean that the federal government, in their words, "crosses the threshold into illegitimacy." Nobody voted on those lines. There was no public debate. These red lines were developed within secretive working groups, and in a paper addressed to governors and staff. In the words of Reiff/DRG: "So that if there is a red line crossed in terms of a Constitutional crisis, like everyone's already pre-organized. And so Mike Smith actually said, he goes, oh, you guys have the day after tomorrow plan." Cross a line, and the paper's options include states refusing to lend their resources to federal officials, and governors convening what it calls a "Third Continential Congress." Running the UDA's Insurrection Act working group: Rear Admiral Mike Smith (RET) of National Security Leaders of America (NSL4A). NSL4A is also credited with operationalizing UDA, the blocking operations. NSL4A consists of about 1,600 ex-officers, spies, diplomats. They're turning red lines into indicators and running a situation room to monitor them throughout the midterms and beyond. The NSL4A's lawyers told them to stop recording meetings in case of subpoenas. But the rest of the network continued to record. DRG works in conjunction with Renew to Thrive (R2T), which ended up accidentally publishing 400+ calls and thousands of documents. These calls and documents were never meant for our eyes, but it's them, on tape. Thousands of NGOs and billions of dollars are involved in this endeavor. Most of them believe they're saving democracy. The problem is that people who spent their careers deciding when other countries' governments had lost their legitimacy wrote that test for ours, in private, and planned for what comes after. Who decides when your government is legitimate?
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Yikes...worth the 90-second read 😳
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
France-Germany spread going orbital
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I have spent half a century today changing the whirled, yet I am nothing of recognizable influence. Barely of significance to my closest circle of immediate family. Half whom had to be reminded of said existence. Why don’t. I Burn it all to the ground? There is good growing out there somewhere. Maybe I’ll find it, or at least deplete my desire to pursue it in the meanwhile. Hills are speed bumps, mountains are mountable. The journey continues endlessly.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Hey @XRP community! 💙🚀 You're part of XRPL. Now it's time to show off your onchain identity! 🪐 Got an XRPL wallet? You've already got a Web3 Profile waiting for you! Just visit xrp.name/{RAddress}👇 xrp.name/rnepov9H4ZrhMo8txbc… Your NFTs, tokens, and onchain activity, all in one beautiful, shareable page. No signup. No setup. Just your wallet! ✨ Go find yours and share it with the community xrp.name #XRP #XRPL #Web3Profile
hello, world. It’s about time.
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Obsidian Asset retweeted
Market Report 10-21-2026: Everything is "Stupid," Wednesday "They've gone plaid!" -- Spaceballs. We are well beyond stupidity at this point. As we approach the midterms the lunacy is fully on display. The good news is that sober heads are trying to end grueling, wasteful wars of attrition while the laziness and frankly stupidity of the entrenched power structure is revealed for everyone to see. I have cautioned for years about falling prey to arguments that reduce to, well THEY would never let that happen because THEY are so powerful. THEY are omnipotent, in this example. And after a number of times encountering this type of paranoid thinking I dubbed this "The Myth of the Omnipotent X," where "X" equals whatever group or person you believe to be all-powerful. It's dumb, but like the Wizard in Oz, those that have a little power (or even a lot) want you to believe they are unassailable and invulnerable. They all do it, especially intelligence assets. Spycraft is all about subverting your reality, making you believe the false is self-evidently true. Elissa Slotkin is out there this morning backpedaling and attacking anyone dragging her after her remarks in Chicago. She's being ratio'd into the ground. Good and hard. And we should continue to mercilessly mock her and force her to face what she said, and who she is. Zelensky is finally having to accede to the reality that the people he thought had his back, don't even have their own after Marco Rubio whipped them into submission. And now Steve Witkoff is off to Moscow to prepare the ground for a Yalta II meeting in November between Trump, Xi, and Putin. But the most hilarious thing is the security certificate breach where we found out that the Indian IT companies issuing those foundational certs thought a 384-bit number was a number between 1 and 384, rather than a 384-digit number. That only happens because of the lack of competence and care at every level in the managerial stack. It is literally Act III of Atlas Shrugged kind of stupidity. And it's why we should always have had hope that we would rise rather than fully crash out. Everyone is expecting for the big crash sometime in the future, but what if this is the crash out now? Could you get more stupid than this error? Could anything be a bigger indictment of the supposedly omnipotent people who rigged the various markets and incentive structures that led to this moment? Chuck Schumer, one of the supposedly most competent and battle-hardened politicos IN THE WORLD, fell for a fake pollster running a social experiment, Wedgewood Polling, and spent $1.2 million on a race that is unwinnable because of their made up numbers. And any of you trust any other pollster out there? patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns/p…
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Insufferable aunty from hell defeated by an American White man. They’re defenseless to stern direct logic and scurry away. Return to India next!
An psychotic aunty from hell moves next door. The consequences of Indian chain migration. There’s 1.5 BILLION more salivating for their chance to turn your peace up side down. We can’t coexist.
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