Ex-Staff, Senate Foreign Relations Committee|nuclear & missile stickler. If I’m particularly clear you probably misunderstood https://xitter.cf/t.co/ac09JgGwxp

Joined November 2017
We overestimated Russia. We underestimated Ukraine. For Russia, every day without victory is defeat. For Ukraine, every day without defeat is victory.
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
I am looking forward to returning to the continent where I’ve experienced so many moments of my life. May this journey be an occasion for us to open our hearts to one another, strengthen our communion as brothers and sisters, and renew our commitment to proclaiming the Gospel with joy.  #Uruguay #Argentina #Peru
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
❗️Oleshky: Ceasefire Begins as Ukraine Fulfills Its Commitments A ceasefire came into effect today at 3:00 a.m. Kyiv time (4:00 a.m. Moscow time) in designated areas related to the humanitarian mission. ☝️This is part of a humanitarian mission being carried out with the mediation and coordination of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS), in cooperation with Yana Lantratova, Russia’s Commissioner for Human Rights. As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honoring its commitments. The agreements were reached during negotiations with Yana Lantratova, head of the Russian negotiating team. ‼️I will continue to keep the public informed of developments, with the safety of civilians in Oleshky and compliance with the agreed arrangements remaining our top priorities.
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
Huhh, so this is what a supersonic sea-skimming target interception looks like (Unseen IR cam Footage from US navy). USS Philippine Sea & USS Mason engaging a GQM-163A Coyote target using AEGIS combat system and SM-2 interceptors during SWATT training in the Atlantic.
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
In a recent post, NATO’s Maritime Command announced that their Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1) observed a Russian Kilo-class submarine operating in the “high north,” as NATO signaling surrounding the surveillance of Russian naval forces in the local region increases.
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AI prefers no anti-flash white?
The first two images are AI slop, while the third is an old image of a Tu-160. There are plenty of actual Tu-160M images they could have used. Second image is a real gem 🤡
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Nobody’s been rescued yet. The Vatican would wait until after it was over to celebrate.
The refusal to credit the First Lady with her diplomatic efforts hurts Ukraine. We can and must sound the alarm about the Russian propaganda campaign AND celebrate rescuing the Ukrainians the Russians have been starving.
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
Nicht „laut Financial Times“, sondern laut ex-Stasi-Agent Matthias Warnig (sehr glaubwürdig!) habe Selenskyj 2023 ein Friedensangebot abgelehnt. Beweise gibt es keine. Aber wenn Putin 2023 angeblich all das besetzte Land zurückgeben wollte, warum tut er das heute nicht? Na?!
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I know Eisenhower said if you can’t solve a problem, enlarge it. So does Witkoff. But this is ridiculous. Eisenhower also gave Fermi an award. Fairly funny since Fermi Reasoning an be seen as the opposite method.
#Russia wants #NATO to return to its 1997 posture. But Russia in 1997 was very different from today's Russia, which is an autocratic, neo-imperialist, militarist state that launched largest war Europe has seen since 1945.
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“Пидараси блять” is dull cursing for a Lipchane chuvak watching Energia go up in smoke. Would’ve expected a “ебана рот” variant, as in the all-time, meme-inspiring “Ебаный рот, на! Летит! Все горит! Прямо на нас летел, блять!”
Footage of Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles slamming into Russia’s Energia military electronics plant in Yelets this weekend. At least 7 missiles hit the plant, damaging multiple workshops that produced batteries for a number of Russian missile systems.
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During exercise #GlobalThunder 27, an @AFGlobalStrike bomber integrated with our @RoyalAirForce & @Luftforsvaret #AlliesAndPartners, visibly demonstrating our shared commitment to global security and stability. #StrongerTogether
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
As there seems to be some confusion. ➡️NO, the @FinancialTimes did NOT report, Russia agreed to withdrawing from all 2022-occupied areas of Ukraine in early 2023. ❗️FT reports, probably based on information from himself, that Putin lobbyist Matthias Warnig #claimed, Russia would withdraw. There is no second source, no independent confirmation, not even from the alleged source and the quoted former Gazprom manager - which might be the same person - itself. ‼️So I would take this with a Mount Everest of salt.
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If it’s possible, MFA-Russia is more angry about a Florida judge issuing a warrant for Raul Castro than Raul Castro.
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The FT piece on “Putin Whisperers” probably made Putin’s year better. Has all the hallmarks of perception management.
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Tendering the attached meme in the hope we’ll see clever critiques to Dissuasion avancée, not as an endorsement of any, but in expectation that it won’t be deterrence value or targeting that Russia (and some in France) attack first, So to speak. “Always was ‘you first.’”
I understand the impulse to grasp at any nuclear straw, but I don't think the ability to disperse French aircraft (which is what "la dissuasion avancée" is) adds anything to deterrence. It's not like there is a scenario in which Russia would want to attack those aircraft.
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Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk retweeted
Samo sformułowanie „europejska architektura bezpieczeństwa” ma sowiecką/rosyjską prowincję. Termin wiąże się z sowieckim postulatem i rosyjskim marzeniem, aby Amerykanie wycofali swoich żołnierzy z Europy - do żargonu dyplomatycznego wprowadzał ten termin Molotow w 1954 roku, potem Gromyko w 1969, i to do tej tradycji nawiązuje Putin i jego ultimatum z 2021. Dlatego amerykańska dyplomacja - dla podkreślenia różnicy z sowieckim podejściem często używała pojęcia „bezpieczeństwo Europy” - bo to oznacza udział Amerykanów w jego zapewnieniu. To, źe Rosjanie do tematu wracają, należy wiązać z dążeniami administracji Trumpa, aby nakłonić Putina do powrotu do rozmów o zakończeniu wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej. WItkoff miał ostatnio zaproponować aby rozmowy dotyczyły nie tylko Ukrainy, ale właśnie całej europejskiej „architektury bezpieczeństwa” , czyli między innymi amerykańskich baz w Polsce i obecności amerykańskich żołnierzy w Europie.
⚠️❗️Najnowsze doniesienia „The Telegraph” stanowią powrót do sytuacji z grudnia 2021 roku. W grudniu 2021 roku Kreml wystosował żądania i ultimatum: NATO miało ustąpić miejsca rosyjskim interesom w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej i wycofać swoją obecność do stanu sprzed 1997 roku – to był warunek do spełnienia, żeby nie było wojny z Ukrainą. Teraz @Telegraph twierdzi, że Moskwa powtarza te żądania. Strategiczne cele Rosji pozostają więc niezmienne – Moskwa chce nie tylko przejąć całą Ukrainę, ale także przywrócić swoją strefę wpływów i dominację w Europie Środkowej. Aby to osiągnąć, Kreml musi zniszczyć NATO w jego obecnym kształcie. Powinno być jasne, że rosyjskie zakusy imperialne wykraczają daleko poza samą Ukrainę. Stawką jest przyszłość całego Sojuszu, a zwłaszcza jego wschodniej flanki. Kreml nie zamierza się zatrzymać. Musimy wywierać na Rosję silniejszą presję, żeby ją do tego zmusić. @SlawomirDebski @KuczynskiG @PiotrGursztyn
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No, quite honestly that’s what he wants you to say, needs you to say, so the anti-Europe feedback loop gets its relatively small goal here, but that $2 check gets cashed for a lot more in Trump’s brain.
This is interesting. Key Putin 🇷🇺 aide Ushakov admits that the Anchorage plan of having Trump 🇺🇸 force Zelensky 🇺🇦 into agreeing to their demands hasn’t worked because of the role of Europe. That’s it: if Europe stays the course, 🇷🇺 can’t win.
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There is no Russian now, nor has there been one for some time, that would halt war in Russia’s near abroad for talk. Putin’s formative personal experience was Chechnya, referring to the 1996 Khasavyurt agreements as the “Khasavyurt capitulation.” Oleshky can turn out like Syria.
The Kremlin has no intention of halting the war for talks with Ukraine Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, stated that continuing trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States does not mean a pause in hostilities. At the same time, the Kremlin spokesperson suggested that a ceasefire in the area of the occupied city of Oleshky could serve as a model for agreements along other sections of the front line. Moscow is willing to discuss negotiations but offers no promise to suspend military operations during diplomatic talks. Putin is apparently hoping that the negotiations will drag on, giving him more time to seize additional Ukrainian territory. #Putin #Russia #Kremlin #Ukraine #USA #Politics #War #News
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I was a heretic on B61. Spending on a gravity bomb LEP a decade+ ago seemed like gold bricks to drop on Russia. That was before F-35, B61-12 and B61-13. It also was during INF. Now, with 12 and 13 (not itself for TACAIR), B61 provides platform, yield and target flexibility.
Am not sure it's that simple. A NATO operation based on (but not limited to) F35A-B61Mod12 would probably have a high probability to reach targets in Russia. And US vs. Fr mission profiles are different.
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gather, map and characterize electronic intelligence near Kaliningrad and over Ukraine. F-35 was even able to flag anomalies for S-300 and S-400 in WARM. Such ELINT can cue SEAD assets to tear a path through Russian AD. F-35 is never alone.
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Old view that Russia only characterized B61 as a threat to negotiate it out as a symbol is dated. While in the past weapons that left Europe never returned, that’s clearly changing, with or without the US. And Russia still has 11 time zones to defend.
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