Pinned Tweet
Attention Polymarket Data Geeks. I have built military grade orderbook capture and provided it for free. 🪖
Growing at 2.3 Billion rows per day. Check it out and pls share.
Pendulum Flow retweeted
If you’re using Polymarket’s native ref system, you’re leaving a lot of money on the table
Just look at how it compares to the program on Dub
On top of that, they’ve started running bonus programs, like a $10k prize pool for the top-performing Perps affiliates
DM me and I’ll onboard you
Polymarket Orderbook Archive Update
New London, bare metal dedicated server is unparalleled. In v3.1 I expect this to be the primary witness. Potentially room for another ~0.3% capture improvement with tuning.
Rolling out some enhancements to the other witnesses that should make them more stable. It has only been thanks to the 5 witness VPS merge that the capture has stayed > 99.85% at times.
Very impressive thread of analysis from @PredictTerminal 💪🧠🫡
Replying to @PendulumFlow
I see some were already answered, so here are the ones still open 🫡
July taker rebates: your rebate should be your tier % of the taker fees you paid. For the first five weeks (fee days Jun 1 – Jul 2), 0x520b undercounted fees on buys: each buy fee only counted at the share price. Buy at 20¢ and only 20% of that fee counted toward your rebate; sell fees counted in full. They fixed it from Jul 3.
The Jul 8–9 payment from 0x71a7 is the top-up for that mistake. For each wallet it’s the rebate you should have got for Jun 1 – Jul 8, minus what 0x520b had already paid. Your tier each day is based on your previous 30 days of weighted volume, combos don’t count, and Jun 5–6 are skipped. For most wallets in the 3%, 8% and 18% lists, it matches to the cent.
That also explains the gaps in the early payments. The Jun 23 payout also covered Jun 1–4 and Jun 7–18, and the Jul 1 payout covered Jun 25, 27 and 29. Rebates for May 28–31 and Jun 5–6 were never paid at all.
The last $0.30 from the Sep 22 batch (0x53d1) is a refund on “Set 1 Winner: Dakotah Bobo vs Corey Craig”. Polymarket posted an on-chain clarification that evening resolving it to Bobo and refunding net losing positions, so all 54 payments are now explained.
Bonus: 0x71a7’s round-dollar payouts on Sep 28 (72 wallets) and Oct 2 (22 wallets) look like payments from the Sep 19 trading-disruption.
a critical vulnerability was just discovered in PHP. the language that runs 80% of the internet
severity score: 9.2 out of 10. that’s about as bad as it gets
what can an attacker do with this? take full admin control of a server. steal entire databases. passwords, credit cards, payment histories. plant malware and use the server to attack other systems
but here’s the terrifying part that most people missed
the moment the patch drops tonight attackers are expected to use AI to reverse engineer what was fixed within 15 minutes
15 minutes. that’s the window between the fix going live and automated attacks launching worldwide
every online store, booking site, and corporate system running PHP that doesn’t update in those 15 minutes becomes a target
this isn’t just a developer problem. if you’ve ever signed up to a website, entered your card details, or created an account online your data is sitting on servers that might be vulnerable right now
and someone just publicly dropped the working exploit on twitter before the patch was even ready. gave every attacker on earth a head start
engineers worldwide are pulling all-nighters tonight to patch their systems before the attacks begin
change your passwords on any service that matters to you. enable 2FA everywhere. and watch out for fake “maintenance” or “password reset” emails over the next few days
the internet is about to have a very long night
This is extreamly impressive work!
Replying to @PendulumFlow
On the 22 Sep batch (0xb1d7b542...8bd1), we reconstructed all 54 payments totaling 149.40 pUSD. The strongest explanation is mixed reimbursement of selected fees and purchase costs, rather than one market.
52 recipients received 146.97 pUSD. Across 107 selected fills, the recorded fee components total 146.985350 before per-wallet rounding, on four markets:
• Russia military action against an EU country by 30 Sep and 31 Dec 2026.
• EU country blames Russia for a new sabotage attack by 31 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.
One combined builder charge is included, so this is not entirely platform fees.
Archived Polymarket event pages show those exact conditions with fee coefficient 0.04 on 19 Sep and zero on 20 Sep. That is a fee-curve coefficient, not a flat 4% charge. The captures do not pin down the effective change or prove an incorrect charge.
The remaining payments:
• 2.13 pUSD matches 42.54736 Corey Craig match-winner shares × 0.05 = 2.127368, in Bobo/Craig.
• 0.30 pUSD has two matching candidates: Craig first-set (5 × 0.06) or Maltsev vs Pytsko (10 × 0.03). The first-set market settled after the payment; Maltsev settled losing before it.
The combined final ITF main and qualifying draws contain both Bobo and Craig but no pairing between them. That supports investigating the fixture, not declaring it canceled or wrongly resolved.
Rounding matters: decimal half-up matches 53/54. One 0.495 basis was paid as 0.49. Tested half-down and binary-rounding variants match 54/54, but do not identify the payer's implementation. The 0.30 attribution and payment purpose remain unconfirmed.
We have the 54-wallet comparison and transaction/log references prepared. This analysis is specific to the September batch; it does not explain the July or weekly payments.
Military-market archives, before and after:
web.archive.org/web/20260919…
web.archive.org/web/20260920…
ITF final main and qualifying draws:
itftennis.com/en/tournament/…
itftennis.com/en/tournament/…
Orbook archive is getting hit by distributed scraping swarms from Vietnam, Taiwan, and China spreading requests across thousands of IPs to dodge the per-IP rate limit I had to implement. FU very much.
Thanks for the influx of feedback for v3.1!!
New in the v3.1 preview: Order Intent 😎
The signed order behind every on-chain fill: tx hash, order hash, maker wallet, taker flag, amounts, fee, and the order's own timestamp. That means you can see how old a quote was when it filled (as the maker stated it). This is kind of a big deal.
Each order is already matched to its on-chain fill, and an early tester joined it to our trade feed for 99.8 % of BTC up/down fills 💪
archive.pendulumflow.com/pre… (the *.order-intent.parquet files; READ the notes on the page first!)
Feedback pls, it's a preview so now's the time to shape it 🙏
Worked some of these out:
0x8a80356b6304a08c24da30b0cf0d85b6907824ee (and its predecessor 0x1510565e…): referral rewards. Daily payments to referrers on their referees trading, which is why most recipients have no trades of their own. (Happy to be corrected.)
0x71a7b22d671c93a7a40edff2ffed52dd64ed3235, 8–9 Jul: partly solved.
- One list is the taker level-up bonuses ($10–$25,000 for reaching the 3–50% tiers).
- The rest are taker rebates paid by tier: 3% in one list, 8–18% in another, 32–44% on 8 Jul.
Still open, if anyone knows:
What period and formula the 8–9 Jul taker-rebate amounts covered. They aren't a simple tier × fees, and the regular taker rebates from 0x520bf77d… for 20 Jun – 3 Jul don't follow tier × fees either.
0xc0126535cbc6f70fc71d41bbc266d76321159efe: weekly ~$12.5k, later ~$25k, 9 Nov 2025 – 5 Jan 2026, to a fixed group of 11–35 wallets.
0x53d111557bc0d48ec540fbdca14a1f148cabdb40, 22 Sep: one Disperse tx (0xb1d7b542…8bd1), $149.40 to 54 wallets. Looks like a refund, but can't tie it to a market.
More data psychosis...
Anyone tell me what there Polymarket payments were for?
1. 0x71a7b22d671c93a7a40edff2ffed52dd64ed3235, 8–9 Jul 2026 ~$4.2M to ~34.5k wallets in a few lists. One list is clearly the taker level-up bonuses (10–25,000 by tier), and the others go to wallets by taker-rebate tier (3%, 8–18%, 32–44%). What period and formula did the non-bonus amounts cover?
Related: the taker-rebate payments from 0x520bf77d9d34c34a6a9723f50e1dcb887ed238c5 for 20 Jun – 3 Jul don't match tier × fees the way later days do (and a few days were skipped). Was there a different rule in that first fortnight?
2. 0x8a80356b6304a08c24da30b0cf0d85b6907824ee Daily pUSD payments since 25 Jun 2026 (~$2.5M total), to a stable group of ~3.7k wallets, many with no trading activity. Most were previously paid by 0x1510565e. What program is this?
3. 0xc0126535cbc6f70fc71d41bbc266d76321159efe Weekly payments of ~$12.5k, later ~$25k, from 9 Nov 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, to a fixed group of 11–35 wallets. What program was this?
4. 0x53d111557bc0d48ec540fbdca14a1f148cabdb40, 22 Sep 2026 One Disperse tx (0xb1d7b542a7b8ccd9c04f777dbe05eb701b8b62240199d99b1d61528cf1fe8bd1), $149.40 to 54 wallets. This address's other batches look like market refunds, but I couldn't link this one to a market.
More data psychosis...
Anyone tell me what there Polymarket payments were for?
1. 0x71a7b22d671c93a7a40edff2ffed52dd64ed3235, 8–9 Jul 2026 ~$4.2M to ~34.5k wallets in a few lists. One list is clearly the taker level-up bonuses (10–25,000 by tier), and the others go to wallets by taker-rebate tier (3%, 8–18%, 32–44%). What period and formula did the non-bonus amounts cover?
Related: the taker-rebate payments from 0x520bf77d9d34c34a6a9723f50e1dcb887ed238c5 for 20 Jun – 3 Jul don't match tier × fees the way later days do (and a few days were skipped). Was there a different rule in that first fortnight?
2. 0x8a80356b6304a08c24da30b0cf0d85b6907824ee Daily pUSD payments since 25 Jun 2026 (~$2.5M total), to a stable group of ~3.7k wallets, many with no trading activity. Most were previously paid by 0x1510565e. What program is this?
3. 0xc0126535cbc6f70fc71d41bbc266d76321159efe Weekly payments of ~$12.5k, later ~$25k, from 9 Nov 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, to a fixed group of 11–35 wallets. What program was this?
4. 0x53d111557bc0d48ec540fbdca14a1f148cabdb40, 22 Sep 2026 One Disperse tx (0xb1d7b542a7b8ccd9c04f777dbe05eb701b8b62240199d99b1d61528cf1fe8bd1), $149.40 to 54 wallets. This address's other batches look like market refunds, but I couldn't link this one to a market.
Pendulum Flow retweeted
beautiful explanation. this is 100% happening. xitter.cf/sotak/status/211179423…
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Now that crime is legal I can brag about this publically
In 2021 I hit @CryptoGodJohn paid group for 6 figs by hunting the stops of their positions
I joined every single paid group on ct, mainly by using mirrors, and started tracking every single trade made on each. I quickly realized they were taking advantage of their users so I happily took advantage of them
I would use orderbook data and compare how each signal had an impact in the books
I had an automated Excel, it was fucking art with telegram notifs for every trade I should take
When I found guys who were heavily copytraded, I started wash trading and spoofing like a mfer to bring prices down and since they all used hard stop losses I would make bank on the slippage hit.
It wasn’t particularly hard since they would pick tickers with no liquidity to pump their own entries :)
shoutout @eliz883 who was by far the worst user of that predatory technique
I also made sure to hit you Eliz, in fact you were hit so often you started closing your positions 2 minutes after posting because I made your grift unprofitable past the pump and dump of your posts lol
It was the best on FTX because FTX OTC would buy my entire stack of some illiquid trash for like 4% from spot when it was literally empty and I had nuked it 20%+
Anyhow major thanks to @CryptoGodJohn
I ate real good thanks to your grifting, made more than 100k on your ass alone
I nuked you personally more than anybody else because I particularly hated how predatory you were to your users
Would be a shame if someone perpetuated what I began in 21 in your group again
I am an old man now, I retired from the shananigans
Thanks and fuck you
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED
> In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation
> Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation
that's a solid -50% in 48 days
and even at that price there are NO buyers.
A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share)
For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale.
They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely.
Ironic.
VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on



















