Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Joined April 2024
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Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's what they discovered 👇
1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief !
They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market.
but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships.
They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe.
Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief.
the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute :
> The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes.
Well deserved.
This gem of an article went almost unnoticed. Go read it
frontofficesports.com/articl…
Quant Chad retweeted
LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal :
- The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
Quant Chad retweeted
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE.
The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
Quant Chad retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
Quant Chad retweeted
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE.
The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
This is why I'm only interested in community projects these days
if even VCs get rugged by founders what chance do you have ?
The only real way to avoid this is to go 100% community allocation from the start, like @polyguana is doing
No VC bags. No presale. No team allocation.
No one buying Private jets on your back.
If the team become rich you do too because you are all playing the same game
Simple as that.
Check it out below 👇
polyguana.net/i/TBFVSBPN
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights.
Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet.
Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses :
- private jet flights
- apartment rent
- designer clothes
They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND
Shayne was forced to reimburse the money.
ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls
They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO.
You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ?
I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup.
I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
Quant Chad retweeted
Breaking: The employee of OpenAI arrested for planting an audio recording device in the company's executive conference room was identified
as @gainzy222
A bisexual crypto streamer based in Tel Aviv
Move fast and break things, said Shayne when booking the Bombardier Global 8000 for $21k/hour
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights.
Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet.
Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses :
- private jet flights
- apartment rent
- designer clothes
They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND
Shayne was forced to reimburse the money.
ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls
They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO.
You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ?
I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup.
I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
This @TheFatMbappe tweet becomes more relevant every passing day
turns out there really was a coup ongoing against Shayne
investors forced him to hire Collin McKinney Hill as COO
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights.
Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet.
Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses :
- private jet flights
- apartment rent
- designer clothes
They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND
Shayne was forced to reimburse the money.
ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls
They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO.
You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ?
I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup.
I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
Quant Chad retweeted
Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid
The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average.
This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard
Let me explain
1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES
Whales need dumb counter parties.
Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that.
To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against.
This is called “soft flow”
2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE
-> More soft flow
-> more food for whales
-> more trading volume
-> more fees for Hyperliquid.
PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user.
It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses.
If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform.
Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform.
The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform.
3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL
HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle.
Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets.
Each builder can target a specific retail audience :
- sports fans
- regional communities
- crypto traders
- finance bros
etc.
That's a huge distribution advantage.
Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work.
HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits.
That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets
Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid
The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average.
This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard
Let me explain
1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES
Whales need dumb counter parties.
Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that.
To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against.
This is called “soft flow”
2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE
-> More soft flow
-> more food for whales
-> more trading volume
-> more fees for Hyperliquid.
PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user.
It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses.
If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform.
Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform.
The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform.
3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL
HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle.
Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets.
Each builder can target a specific retail audience :
- sports fans
- regional communities
- crypto traders
- finance bros
etc.
That's a huge distribution advantage.
Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work.
HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits.
That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets
Quant Chad retweeted
Skin-in-the-game is the ultimate moat, but a brutal mass-market social graph.
When we built ZEITFinance (prediction vaults where your token = your track record), we ran straight into human nature: people love illusion. Today’s social media works because it lets plebs pretend to be kings.
Quantifying risk only benefits the few who already win.
Directionally 100% with Se Yong, but for a risk-based social graph to scale, we have to design incentives that make the losing 99% want to play too
Quant Chad retweeted
Most crypto points programs are just subsidized Wash Trading
that's what you incentivize when you only reward volume.
Polyguana is smarter than that
Of the 10,000 points they distributed today :
> 80% went to deposit rewards.
> 20% went to volume rewards.
They're rewarding capital commitment over volume farming.
That means two things
1) Farming is completely free, you don't need spend on trading fees to aquire $POLY points. Just deposit and earn yield.
2) There is little incentive for users to fake volume, all activity on the platform is genuine users.
If you already trade on prediction markets just bridge your funds there and start earning at 0 cost ⬇️
polyguana.net/i/WZXNESPQ
PolyPoints Distribution #1 is out 🦎
10,000 PolyPoints sent, covering activity since launch:
-- 20% (2,000) to trading, by dollar volume
-- 80% (8,000) to Earn deposits, by dollar value held per hour
Get yours now: polyguana.net/points
Quant Chad retweeted
You asked: is my money safe on Polyguana?
Fair question. So we made a video 🐢
-- Deposits only ever pay back to the account that made them
-- The vault code can't be upgraded
-- Withdrawals can't be paused
-- Your trading wallet comes from Privy (owned by Stripe). We never see your private key
-- The source is verified on the explorer. Give it to your own AI and ask what could go wrong
Nothing in crypto is risk-free, but we did our best.
polyguana.net/points/guide