Econometrician and investor. Mostly distressed debt and small caps. Rationality over emotion. Critical about corrupted 'science'. Cui bono? Views are my own.

Joined October 2015
I’ll cover the subject of mRNA vaccines. I warn you. Do not read this twitter thread if you want to stay stuck in your belief that the vaccine is your golden ticket to pre-pandemic life! Do read it if you want to be informed about what would be injected in your body. 1/
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PerpetualValue retweeted
BREAKING: Brazil's stock market collapses nearly -30% and the Brazilian Real loses -10% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected. Brazil's stock market has lost over $200 billion of market cap today.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
Credit spreads are starting to crack and widen materially. Risk off sentiment is increasing. Trading desk heads will be telling credit traders to cut risk as fast money sellers try to capture the move which exacerbates the spread widening. Its the same every time!
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PerpetualValue retweeted
'Franse rente doorbreekt voor het eerst sinds 2002 grens van 5%' fd.nl/financiele-markten/161… (gratis te lezen)- “vooralsnog is er geen reden voor paniek, laat staan voor ingrijpen door de ECB”. Reden voor paniek is er niet, maar wat mij betreft wel voor grote zorgen. Stuk is wat mij betreft veel te onbekommerd. Er is weinig uitzicht op een geloofwaardig Frans hervormings- en bezuinigingsbeleid.
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Milton Friedman argued that the welfare system can strip people of independence and dignity by making them dependent on government decisions. He warned that people may become afraid to take a job if losing it means risking the benefits they rely on. His concern was that a system meant to provide temporary assistance could end up trapping people in a cycle of dependency instead of helping them regain independence.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
EU Socialism at its finest: 1)Land Berlin elections won by leftists 2)They announce they want to "socialise properties" belonging to private RE co. =>bonds drop 3)They come to the market to ask you to fund this nonsense :) => and it works :)
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Ultra-processed foods trigger a bigger insulin response than less-processed ones, even when they contain identical calories and nutrients. When people consumed two different meals matched closely for protein, carbs, fat, and fiber, the ultra-processed one produced a larger insulin response despite a similar overall blood glucose response. It also blunted the normal shift toward burning carbohydrates after eating and changed the brain's response to eating. I’ve talked before about Kevin Hall’s trial, where people eating an ultra-processed diet consumed about 500 extra calories per day and gained weight. This new study explains another part of why UPFs are so problematic - it shows that the way food is processed can change how our bodies handle it and even how our brains perceive it!
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France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35 hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education. Everything the left says they want AND THEY'RE STILL PROTESTING AND BURNING SHIT DOWN.
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Unsustainable Open borders are incompatible with a big welfare system Cut the welfare system, and immigration will drop Incentivize people to work instead of subsidizing them to work little Integration will improve also if people are forced to work
🌍 European countries that added the most migrants (2000–2024) 1. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: +7.1M 2. 🇪🇸 Spain: +6.8M 3. 🇩🇪 Germany: +6.4M 4. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +5.8M 5. 🇮🇹 Italy: +4.4M 6. 🇫🇷 France: +3.0M 7. 🇦🇹 Austria: +1.4M 8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +1.4M 9. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: +1.3M 10. 🇧🇪 Belgium: +1.3M 11. 🇸🇪 Sweden: +1.3M 12. 🇵🇱 Poland: +917K 13. 🇮🇪 Ireland: +840K 14. 🇳🇴 Norway: +720K 15. 🇷🇴 Romania: +521K 16. 🇵🇹 Portugal: +476K 17. 🇩🇰 Denmark: +475K 18. 🇭🇺 Hungary: +393K 19. 🇨🇿 Czechia: +386K 20. 🇫🇮 Finland: +378K Europe's migrant population grew by 40.8 million between 2000 and 2024, up 67%. The UK, Spain and Germany together account for almost half of that increase. Source: UN DESA
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Imagine having an even shittier coin than the GBP with Labour in Government
€Euro confidence on the slide. Make the most of that £pound.
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Be sure to play the cycle well
October 5th, 2023: Moody's downgrades Egypt. Bonds trading at 51c & +1250bps, about to embark on a historic +132% return over the next 2yrs. October 16th, 2026: Moody's upgrades Egypt, Bonds trading at 91c & +440bps, close to the tightest levels in the last 15 yrs. Sick.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
$Hr.un #REIT the corrupt scum is now sponsoring "vote yes" when you search H&R REIT into Google. Nobody in the right mind would vote yes after reviewing the circular. To date, I know over 20 million no votes and still zero yes votes.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
Happy anniversary to the 1987 market crash. 39 years ago today, the Dow fell 22.6% in a single session, still the worst on record.
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Interesting battle between DBAY and Richard Griffiths going on here P/B 75% with undervalued assets in the portfolio imho
People waking up to the discount on Logistics Development Group #LDG shares (25%) Led by DBAY, which had remarkable success selling Eddie Stobart Logistics at 4.7x to Culina Group in 2021 They are back into logistics with William Stobart Corporate governance issues, but I hold
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PerpetualValue retweeted
A big part of why Communism appeals to me is the idea of unlocking the true creative potential of humanity and removing the obstacles preventing excellence. Capitalism stifles human ingenuity, who knows what brilliant things we can do once we are free.
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I have sold all #GENL bonds Management has overpaid for Capricorn Energy #CNE and increased leverage in the Company substantially The Genel bonds increased from 135m to 200m because of tap issue But most importantly, this debt will be subordinated behind secured funding
Speaking about diworsification.... Genel Energy #GENL outbids $DNO.OL with a 5.74$/share bid for Capricorn Energy #CNE paying top dollar for an Egyptian O&G company that had trouble collecting receivables Taps bond for 65m Apparently the egos were hurt of Genel's management
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I am a big Waterous fan so far, but I don't understand this at top of cycle and with conflicts of interests against $SCR.TO and $GFR.TO Which company gets priority over cheap M&A? I only understand it from Waterous perspective of increasing AuM, and thus fees to him
Let's see how this one takes shape. $SCR.TO
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PerpetualValue retweeted
How EA is trying to avoid paying 101 on its old bonds after the $55bn LBO: Step 1. Buy Treasuries to defease the notes Step 2. Argue the defeased bonds are IG Step 3. Use an Egan-Jones IG rating (classic) in place of Moody’s (after they withdrew) The put needs two agencies to rate the bonds to junk. S&P did, Egan-Jones didn’t, so EA says the put was never triggered. Bondholders say that’s actually a default.
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H&R corporate governance has been a disaster There is upside, but upside has definitely decreased because of significantly increasing Government yields Peers have declined sharply as well I don't trust management at all, so would like to see Tom Hofstedter removed
RBC does a nice job a reviewing the errors and lack of fairness in the H&R/GO deal. And also highlights something mostly overlooked, the $436 million land sale. Just kill the deal, and use the proceeds of the land sale to buy back units = 17% FFO/unit accretion! $HR.UN
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PerpetualValue retweeted
If you live in Europe there is absolutely no surprise in what's happening (or will happen). France will be the 1st domino but many other countries will eventually face both unsustainable pensions and welfare coupled with immigration problems. Winter is coming
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