Purdue Poster Child

Purdue / Texas (San Jose) We went ballistic midway through the year about Illinois being the most efficient offense in the history of KenPom, but Purdue has passed them and now sits #1 nationally on that side of the ball. The Boilermakers had lost 4 of their final 6 regular season games before rattling off a dominant B10 conference tournament run, reminding everyone that this Core 3 will not go quietly into the night for their swan song. Texas similarly lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games, then lost in the first round of the SEC tourney, limped to the play-in, then were gifted the best draw of any team in the tournament with a short-handed 6 & 3-seed in their path. On top of that tee-up draw was the fact that BYU & Zag shot a combined 21% from 3 in Texas' 2 tourney games. Tends to help. Do not forget, this was a team that ranked outside the T100 defensively for a large majority of the season. Texas is a very straightforward team. They want to get to the FT line (7th highest FTRate nationally), they want to get on the offensive glass, and it'll be a ton of iso & ball screens. The way Purdue rebounds & keeps opponents off the line would have you believe this is a plus-matchup for the Boilermakers. Purdue has a gigantic hole defensively at the wing, and I am not really sure they'll have success slowing down the Horns' handlers. Dailyn Swain is one of the best isolation scorers in the country, and prob the 2nd best iso wing other than Dybantsa. The Tramon Mark Experience is not without its ups and downs, but the ups involve carrying an offense for long stretches through difficult shotmaking. Jordan Pope is another streaky perimeter shooter who can pour in tough 3’s with the best of them. A lot of people don't realize that this is a Top 15 offense and was Top 10 for a good majority of SEC play The problem for Texas resides on the defensive end because they have to play drop coverage to keep Vok under the basket and less exposed to fouls in space, but Braden Smith may be the best in the business at picking apart that coverage—Lord knows he’s only seen it 100 times playing 4 years in the B10. You must hedge the ball out of his hands and pressure him with length, otherwise, you’re leave yourself at the mercy of arguably the best 2-man game in the country. Painter is also known for his Mary Poppins-sized bag of sets that run shooters through a litany of screens that end up in a Catch & Shoot 3 or a 1-on-1 post-up. I don’t expect to see that as much in this matchup, but if Miller chooses to change things up defensively, Painter still has a counter to that counter. Purdue, especially offensively, is set up tremendously in this spot to look good doing what they do best. The other kicker about Purdue is, CJ Cox’s injury aside, they’re getting consistent perimeter shotmaking from their guards. Is that because these guys suddenly started hitting their shots? To some extent, sure. But it could also be because the dual big lineup that Painter has fully moved to has changed the calculus of how teams defend Purdue. When TKR + Cluff play together, so long as Purdue’s lack of footspeed can survive defensively, they can put teams in a bind with whatever big man draws the mismatch any given possession as both are lethal scorers on the block. There should be pretty elite offensive efficiency both ways as each team’s offensive strength directly attacks the others’ weaknesses. So while it seems like a dead nut over spot, Texas was the slowest Average Offensive Possession Length in the SEC. Purdue is in no hurry themselves and can absolutely take the air out of the ball when in the lead in the 2H. It’s projected for 64 possessions, so you BETTER get elite efficiency if you want to bet the over. Number is too rich for my liking, but I don’t want any part of an under with the paths that both offenses have to efficiency Props >Much tougher 3P matchup for the Catch & Shoot Purdue guards than what they’ve seen the past couple games, so while Loyer/Cox have been money printers the past couple weeks, I probably stay off in this game. >This screams Braden just dusting that drop coverage. I tend to lean towards the side of him being a scorer over a facilitator with the way Texas will stay home on shooters, but it’s completely feasible for him to have 5-6 assists to TKR alone via push shot in the 2-man game and be more passive in the scoring department. >This is also a really dangerous matchup for both Purdue bigs as Vokietaitis is 3rd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 and FTRate. He is a James Harden level fail baiter, and Purdue is only 219th in 2-Foul Participation, but a lot of that 2FP is playing Braden/Fletcher through foul trouble which is a MUCH safer proposition than doing so with TKR/Cluff. Tend to think Purdue is too hot and has too favorable an offensive matchup to slip up in terms of an outright upset, but I'm tentative to lay that many points when Texas' athleticism advantage could keep them in the game on its own. Boilermakers have some blowout equity especially if Texas rolls over after getting down early if Purdue comes out hitting shots