RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.
Washington D.C.
Joined June 2020
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RacetotheWH retweeted
It's remarkable that Adam Hamilton has a better shot at flipping the Kansas Senate Seat than Cindy Holscher has of holding on to the Kansas Governorship. Here's how the Senate race compares to the Governor race in the recent Wedgewood poll.
RacetotheWH retweeted
Over the last week, Democrats have led in all 13 national generic ballot polls, by an average of 8.7 points: 50.2% to 41.5%. If that margin held through Election Day, it would be the largest advantage for either party in the national House vote in a midterm since 1986.
Democrats are zooming ahead in the national generic ballot since the start of September, and their lead has expanded to 8.2%.
RacetotheWH retweeted
The polling has been breaking Democrats' way in the last week:
Trump's Approval fell to 34.8%, an all-time low.
Democrat's lead in the Generic Ballot rose to 7.5%, an all-time high.
They lead in 5-GOP controlled Senate races.
(RacetotheWH Poll Average)
RacetotheWH retweeted
2028 Democratic Primary Poll Average (@RacetotheWH)
🔵Harris 23.7%
🔵Buttigieg 13.6%
🔵Newsom 13.3%
🔵AOC 10.6%
🔵Ossoff 9.6%
🔵Shapiro 6.2%
🔵Kelly 6%
🔵Pritzker 3.2%
🔵Beshear 3.1%
RacetotheWH retweeted
That was quick! 5 days ago, El-Sayed trailed Rogers by 3%. Today, he's consolidated enough Democratic support to take a slight lead.
RacetotheWH retweeted
2028 Dem. Primary polling average in 11 states @RacetotheWH (top 4)
NEW HAMPSHIRE
🔵 Buttigieg — 24.8% (+5.9)
🟣 AOC — 18.9%
🔴 Newsom — 9.8%
🟢 Harris — 5.5%
——
MICHIGAN
🔵 Buttigieg — 21.4% (+0.5)
🟠 Whitmer — 20.9%
🟢 Harris — 16.4%
🟣 AOC — 11.1%
🔴 Newsom — 10.2%
——
CALIFORNIA
🔴 Newsom — 28.5% (+15)
🟣 AOC — 13.5%
🔵 Buttigieg — 11.3%
🟢 Harris — 10.2%
——
MAINE
🔴 Newsom — 16% (+1)
🟣 AOC — 15%
🔵 Buttigieg — 14%
🟢 Harris — 7%
——
VERMONT
🟣 AOC — 17% (=)
🔴 Newsom — 17%
🔵 Buttigieg — 16%
🟢 Harris — 6%
——
NEVADA
🔴 Newsom — 37.0% (+23.1)
🟣 AOC — 13.9%
🔵 Buttigieg — 8.9%
🟢 Harris — 6%
——
ALASKA
🔴 Newsom — 23.0% (+3)
🔵 Buttigieg — 20.0%
🟢 Harris — 19%
🟣 AOC — 17%
——
FLORIDA
🔴 Newsom — 23% (+15)
🟣 AOC — 14%
🔵 Buttigieg — 12%
🟢 Harris (wasn't polled)
——
NORTH CAROLINA
🔵 Buttigieg — 16.8% (+4.8)
🟢 Harris — 12.0%
🔴 Newsom — 10.2%
🟣 AOC — 4.1%
——
OHIO
🔵 Buttigieg — 21.6% (+2.1)
🔴 Newsom — 19.5%
🟣 AOC — 8.1%
🟢 Harris — 6.8%
——
TEXAS
🔵 Buttigieg — 21.6% (+2.1)
🔴 Newsom — 19.5%
🟢 Harris — 16.8%
🟣 AOC — 5.6%
racetothewh.com/president/20…
RacetotheWH retweeted
People are moving on far too quickly from just how impressive Abdul El-Sayed’s primary victory was.
He was outspent by more than 8-to-1. The airwaves were saturated with misleading attack ads. He won anyway.
RacetotheWH retweeted
Trump's approval rating across 7 polls in the week before the new tariff announcement:
Approve: 38.6%
Disapprove: 58.1%
Net: -19.5%
Trump's approval rating across 5 polls in the week after the announcement:
Approve: 34.0%
Disapprove: 62.6%
Net: -28.4%
RacetotheWH retweeted
Will there be a lingering price for Democrats for the Graham Platner scandals? It might leave a lingering bad taste in Mainers' minds, but I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it much harder for the GOP to paint Troy Jackson as extreme.
RacetotheWH retweeted
The matchup is set in Maine. It's going to be Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins. At RacetotheWH, we now have the race at Tilt D.
Chance to Win: Jackson (D) 68%, Collins (R) 32%
Project|ed Margin: Jackson +3.1%
RacetotheWH retweeted
It's AI vs. Everyone in NY-12 today. And @LoganR2WH, the most accurate forecaster in 2022, thinks an upset could be brewing.
Heads up RacetotheWH fans, I'm at the Knicks Parade today to celebrate the championship, so there won't be any new polls added today. We will be back up to date on Friday!
RacetotheWH retweeted
Here's how I made the forecast - which I do routinely for Senate and Gov primaries around the country to power RacetotheWH.
1. I project each candidates vote share, using polling, momentum, fundraising, endorsement, experience, and google searches in CA
RacetotheWH retweeted
Here's the chance each candidate has of making the general election by finishing in the top two. Becerra, Steyer and Hilton have all separated themselves cleanly from the rest of the field.
RacetotheWH retweeted
Xavier Becerra surged ahead at lightning speed since the day Eric Swalwell was forced out, rising from the bottom tier of candidates to the very top in just 30 days.
RacetotheWH retweeted
The gap between the top three candidates is so miniscule. While I think the most likely outcome is Steyer v. Becerra, it would take just the slightest over-performance to turn this into a Becerra v. Hilton or a Steyer v. Hilton general election.
RacetotheWH retweeted
Final Projections for California Governor🧵
Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.
There are some races where a regular forecast isn't going to do the job. in Vermont - Governor Phill Scott wins by overwhelming margins in a D+30 state every time. So we're changing the forecast - and giving way more weight to Scott's performance last election.
In past cycles, we've wildly underrated him until we had polling for the race. This time, we're getting it right earlier on. So his projection improves from R+17% in the old system to R+36%.
And his odds of winning rise from 89% to 98%.