ElLeon

The Guardian piece is worth reading carefully because the evidentiary structure it documents is specific. Alito's majority opinion gutting the VRA rested on a particular factual claim: Black voter turnout exceeded white voter turnout in two of the last five presidential elections, both nationally and in Louisiana. That claim was copied almost verbatim from a DOJ amicus brief. The DOJ calculated turnout as a proportion of total voting age population - which includes non-citizens, people with felony convictions, and others who cannot legally vote. The widely accepted methodology uses citizen voting age population, which excludes ineligible voters. Using that method, The Guardian found Black turnout in Louisiana exceeded white turnout in only one of the last five elections - not two. Using Louisiana's own secretary of state data, Black turnout has not exceeded white turnout in any of the last five elections. The DOJ was asked why it used the inferior methodology. It acknowledged using total VAP. It did not answer the question about why. Michael McDonald, one of the nation's leading voter turnout experts: "If I wanted to manipulate the numbers in a way that was favorable to the government's interest, I would be using voting age population." He added: "Someone knew what they were doing." The racial turnout gap has "exploded" over the last 15 years. The 2013 Shelby County ruling directly increased that gap. The Court's prior decision suppressed Black voter turnout. The new ruling cited the resulting lower turnout as evidence protection was no longer needed.