Rokovich (@ReasonInterest) header
Rokovich (@ReasonInterest) profile picture

My Twitter feed is competing with my default mode network for the attention of my flexible response mechanism.

Midwest, USA
Joined February 2012
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Replying to @Noahpinion
I’m struggling with the idea that she is magically now just a gifted politician and super candidate after her dismal performance in the 2020 primaries and this isn’t just now temporary feels, but we shall see
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Reasoning through principles without consideration of consequences is daft, reasoning through consequences without grounding in principles is fraught
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Gonna be fucked up if we all get the rona anyhow
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I know these are tough to look at. But my sincere hope is that this thread helps wake people up. This has to stop. 1. Rory Norman was shot and killed in Dallas, TX on Jan. 5th, 2020 after someone shot into his house. He was only 1.
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How should we think about modern problems? Steven Pinker provides some perspective on Episode 6 of The Covid Tonic. teapawt.org/HumanProgress/status/1… Full Episode: youtube.com/watch?v=vWwzwS8o… Transcript: humanprogress.org/article.ph…
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ANY DONATIONS WOULD BE HIGHLY APPRECIATE AND A BLESSING IN THIS WARTIME EFFORT solutionsandresources.org/ta…
Replying to @CityofEL
East Lansing seeking proposals from individuals and firms to lead people through confessional struggle sessions
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Registering my current amateur epidemiological assessment (USA): Current actual cases: 500 k to 1 MM Current actual deaths: 4 k to 8 k 4/30 confirmed cases: 800 k to 1. 2 M 4/30 confirmed deaths: 30 k to 50 k 4/30 actual cases: 1.5 to 2.5 M 4/30 actual deats: 80 to 120 k
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Both the "shutdowns are unnecessary" crowd & the "we'd have no coronavirus without Trump" crowd pay far too little attention to how hard the virus has hit a broad variety of foreign nations with different political systems, cultures, demographics, & responses to the crisis.
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Crocodiles have lived for around 240 million years, appearing 25 million years before the first dinosaurs and 100 million years before the first birds and mammals. Over all those long years, they never once lost their sense of fun.
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I'd be willing to make a friendly wage ($10-$30) that total deaths in the US will not exceed influenza deaths in 2019.
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Pandemics Depress the Economy; Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… HT @KClausing "[C]ities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over." 👍
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Replying to @ReasonInterest
Thank you for your contribution!
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I know people have made this point. But I don't it's totally sunk in how much there's a fairly direct 1:1 trade-off between better testing/tracking on the one hand, and the need for radical, society-wide social distancing (with all its consequences) on the other hand.
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1/ New chemistry breakthrough just published by Jeff Dahn. @tesla lead battery researcher. 1M vehicle miles, 795Wh/L, with fast charge and subsequent 20yr durability projected in grid. The data is amazing. jes.ecsdl.org/content/166/13…
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Science nerds are the real heroes books.google.com.my/books?id…
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Vive l’arbitrage
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A lot of things we call "cognitive biases" are actually rational if the person is applying a high discount rate. A big portion of the diff between rationalists and those whose behavior they want to change can be explained by the former having exceptionally low discount rates.
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