I read between the lines of wars, weapons & agendas. 🇵🇰 OSINT Analyst | Counter-Intel | Conflict Analysis | Geopolitics | Mark in red what they tried to hide.
Joined July 2017
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Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
The off-ramp that no one can find.
For anyone who thinks Iran will negotiate from its current position of strength, I would urge caution. Tehran has little incentive to accept terms it considers unfavourable while it believes it can still exert strategic leverage, particularly through attacks on GCC states and their critical infrastructure.
The bigger question is who actually holds the power to make a deal stick. The IRGC remains central to Iran’s strategic decision-making. Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to make his position publicly clear through any widely verifiable appearance, while Ahmad Vahidi may hold the key to unlocking this impasse.
Any serious assessment of Tehran’s willingness to compromise must account for the military establishment’s influence. No agreement can be assumed to hold without the support of those who control the instruments of power.
As harsh as it sounds, the off-ramp may only emerge when Iran’s strategic leverage has been significantly eroded: its South Pars gas field and Asaluyeh processing complex, Kharg Island’s oil export terminal, major refineries in Abadan and Bandar Abbas, critical power generation infrastructure, and key elements of its nuclear programme at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.
The strategic dilemma is clear: Tehran may view compromise as weakness while it retains these levers, yet waiting too long could leave it with far less bargaining power.
The question is whether a diplomatic off-ramp can be found before the conflict inflicts irreversible damage on Iran and the wider Gulf.
@calevbd @Nicole_Zedeck @Leighanngerrans @MindyNucifora @citrinowicz @DrZarqa3 @gardnerakayla
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Update on Iran-US war: Americans told by Mecca Alliance (Pakistan + Qatar mediators) they’ll handle guarantees & negotiations on Iran. Warning also relayed: Israel to face joint defensive action if a deal advances without addressing regional security concerns.
Qataris today tabled a new draft with clear KPIs (7-day timeline + daily confidence-building steps). Iran expected to respond by end of week. Multiple guarantors involved.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Indians and Pakistanis dominate wheelchair requests at airports.
A huge chunk of them can walk just fine. They’re gaming the system to cut lines, board early, and avoid a short walk because walking is too much effort.
Pure laziness wrapped in entitlement.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Makkah Pact States and Qatar Could Act as Guarantors If Proposal Accepted, Pakistani Official told Reuters
Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir, presented Iran with a proposal that would offer something to both Washington and Tehran.
According to the official, the Makkah pact states, along with Qatar, could act as guarantors if the proposal is accepted.
A senior Pakistani security official said the Tehran talks focused on building a regional non-aggression network, and also covered US-Iran negotiations, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have agreed to continue the four-way dialogue.
Pakistan is once again at the centre of the room where peace is being negotiated.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
This. Please follow @RedMarkar for amazing updates on Yemen & behind the scene happening. Reuters published quoting Pakistani officials confirms what I tweeters Mecca Pact is coming as a guarantor for Iran and in return Houthis, Strait would open.
Makkah Pact States and Qatar Could Act as Guarantors If Proposal Accepted, Pakistani Official told Reuters
Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir, presented Iran with a proposal that would offer something to both Washington and Tehran.
According to the official, the Makkah pact states, along with Qatar, could act as guarantors if the proposal is accepted.
A senior Pakistani security official said the Tehran talks focused on building a regional non-aggression network, and also covered US-Iran negotiations, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have agreed to continue the four-way dialogue.
Pakistan is once again at the centre of the room where peace is being negotiated.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Tehran Talks Were Pakistan's CDF General Syed Asim Munir's Initiative, Says Iran - Pakistan didn't just attend. It set the table.
Iran FM spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says today's Tehran meeting with KSA, Pakistan and Turkey was proposed by Field Marshal Asim Munir and then approved by Iran.
According to Iranian statements, the agenda covers Israel, Lebanon and the war on Iran, and a Qatari delegation was also in Tehran yesterday.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Asim Munir has pulled off the biggest move yet by bringing Saudi, Türkiye, Pakistan and Iran on the table directly without intermediaries. This is a massive development. Since the beginning of this conflict I have been saying that it is not US-Iran talks that matter, but regional actors coming to an agreement. This is Iran’s biggest chance now to end this conflict. The ball is now in their court. And they will make a BIG mistake if they pass the ball onto other’s courts as they have been doing up till now.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
My take on Houthis (Khawajis) attack on Mecca, Saudia Arabia and how Saudia Arabia is hitting and finishing the Iranian proxy in Yemen. Interception rates are over 98% in KSA.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Today @itsalitm and I discussed the case of the 2 Bangladeshis who were executed in Saudi. In this clip I explain some of the details of the case and why such a harsh punishment was given. I forgot to mention that there are about 100 million visitors to Makkah every year - many women and children - and Saudi authorities would not want to risk such a precedent being set that would risk the safety and honor of pilgrims.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
My latest interview with Saudi news channel Al Hadath:
"Iran has committed a strategic blunder by unleashing its last major proxy, the Houthis, against Saudi Arabia, which is a pillar of the Islam and a key Gulf and Arab nation.
"This desperate move, amid the US naval blockade, economic strangulation and growing regional isolation, has triggered a wider response under the Makkah Pact, involving Pakistan and Türkiye.
"Pakistan cannot compromise on Saudi Arabia, and it will go all the way to protect the Kingdom.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Did Iran stand up in support of Iraq when the Americans made up their minds to bomb Iraq and oust Saddam? What was Iran’s excuse back then? It was the same that Saddam was being suicidal by trying to take on the Americans and that if Saddam had a death wish then Iran cannot be held ransom to his suicidal ways. Bear in mind that at the time Saddam was the only one who had smashed Israel with ballistic missiles and had been championing the Palestinian cause. He had also hit missiles at GCC states with the same excuse that they hosted US military bases. Well, dear @s_m_marandi, why doesn’t this same logic apply to you?
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Saudis pounding Houthi C2 in Sanaa with major strikes. Houthis tried everything missiles on airports, oil facilities to intimidate. Didn’t work. Riyadh has decided the Houthi threat gets eliminated.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Seyed Mohammad Marandi US-born dual citizen and English-language mouthpiece for IRGC
Born 14 May 1966 in Richmond, Virginia; lived his first 13 years in the US and Holds dual Iranian-US citizenship.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
So which of the former US DoD official’s points are you actually disputing?
Iran's network of militant proxies across Muslim countries, its hegemonic ambitions rooted in the doctrine of Wilayat-e-Faqih and pursued through the IRGC and Quds Force or its tendency to play victim when the tables turn and it faces the consequences of its own actions?
unavailable
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Pakistan always had a second strike capability from land, sea and air. Enemy would know nevertheless.
NCA adviser Lt Gen (retd) Khalid Kidwai says Pakistan will "review and reconsider all options for appropriate deployments" after reports India put 12 nuclear warheads on a submarine.
dawn.com/news/2038662/pakist… #FullSpectrumDeterrence
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
All of you who are justifying Punjab police killing suspects in custody/“encounters” should think about what if the police or someone powerful was involved in the racket? How are you all despicably supporting such extrajudicial killings? What if these suspects are being killed in custody/encounters so that the full story never comes out? Parhay likhay ho kar jahilon wali baatain kartay ho saray.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
Since the beginning of Operation Dawn of Yemen the majority of the casualties (~ 10,000 Houthi fighters neutralized) have been in the Southern Axis. This tells you that southern axis is the attrition zone for the Houthis as they force the offensive in that direction. The South is the ‘anvil’ where Saudi-backed coalition keep smashing the enemy at the cost of some loss of territory. However, this attrition in the Southern axis is overstretching Houthis and creating openings in the North-Eastern axis. I have compiled the numbers from timeline of @spokespersonyem
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر retweeted
The best aerial asset to use in Yemen to push ground forces forward and give them close air support would have been the A-10 Warthog. The reason being that it is built like a tank (and can therefore survive heavy arms fire and even SAM fire), has 2 engines, and has a massive 30mm seven-barrel Gatling-style autocannon. Saudi has no A-10s! The next best thing available to the Saudis are the Apache helicopters. At some point, there could be the thought of employing JF-17 in an A-10 lite role given its autocannon guns and air-to-ground missiles (similar to A-10).
