⚔️📈Geopolitics | Critical minerals | Energy battles | Investing alpha Follow for raw insights & edge.
Joined April 2022
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🚨World Premiere Film Release🚨
ResourceWars.com presents REGIME CHANGE: HAMAS, ISRAEL & THE WORLD'S FUTURE. The film features the candid and sometimes shocking insights of Efraim Halevy, the former director of Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad. These include:
➡️Mr. Halevy’s hope for “regime change in Israel” and belief that the end of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s government would be “beneficial, not only to the people of Israel, but also to mankind as a whole.”
➡️“Something has happened to (Netanyahu),” the Prime Minister who tapped Mr. Halevy to run Mossad in 1998. “I don’t think that the man I knew then is the man I see today” and “his health is not what it should be.”
➡️It was a mistake for Israel to enter Gaza militarily on the ground, as it has led to “agony on both sides.”
➡️Netanyahu’s desire to “destroy Hamas entirely” will not be achieved.
➡️Prior to Hamas’ October 7th attacks on Israel, Israeli military commanders “shouted down” soldiers who were warning “something was happening” in Gaza, close to Israel’s border. In some cases, “they were threatened they would be court martialed if they continued to report in the way they were reporting.”
➡️Israel has a "major responsibility" to offer the Palestinians "a viable form existence."
➡️On the world stage, China does not want World War III and Iran is not seeking a war with Israel. “It’s clearly seen by us that the Iranians are not keen that this should develop into a major confrontation between Iran and Israel.”
➡️“Intelligence chiefs have been playing a very, very important role in history of the world in the last 40, 50 years.” William Burns is “one of the most brilliant CIA chiefs in the history of the CIA.”
The 20-minute film captures the highlights from an intimate conversation taped recently with the 89-year-old former spymaster at his home in Tel Aviv. It is a timely follow-up to an interview with Mr. Halevy that I produced 15 years ago for OMNI Television.
WATCH THE FILM BELOW, SHARE IT ON SOCIAL MEDIA & SUBSCRIBE.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Trump plan on the war in Iran backfired because this particular war (like Russia’s war on Ukraine) turned to be a systemic risk (4th in a row after GFC, Covid and the war in Ukraine) with a global multiplicative cascade that mutually strengthens the effects from the other war in Ukraine and eventually hit back US & global economy (like already anticipated in March).
The ultimate impact is the Blue Tsunami in the US, the next will be the more rapid rise of populism in Europe, and more and more political revolts around the globe. This is the stuff revolutions are made of.
As I am on the road in a very different time zone, I haven’t said a great deal about the stunning US midterm elections from a ‘grand macro strategy’ perspective yet - but here are a few quick thoughts (without being party political/analytical or normative):
🌍💭 Grand Macro Strategies are not foolproof and can clearly be both foolish and fooled around with; but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist and/or can’t adapt to new circumstances.
🌍🔥 Is the US anti-war or anti *losing* wars? If Iran had worked out like Venezuela, would it have been the same issue? That is an important distinction.
🌍🔥 Regardless, the clear anti-war message from the US elections has massive geopolitical implications.
🌍🔥 Sadly, they don’t suggest world peace though.
First, it’s still likely Trump still opts to escalate vs Iran to try to achieve what he hasn’t been able to so far.
Second, if there is now a genuinely higher chance that Trump does an Iran TACO, to think that would end all Middle East hostilities —or leave the US in a better geostrategic position overall— is arguably wrong.
🌍🔥 If we assume the US retreats from the Middle East, regional stability is going to be very hard to sustain without the security role it now doesn’t want to play. New structures being set up are rivals as much as pillars. That suggests higher energy prices as a backdrop, just without the US playing a role.
🌍🔥 On the other hand, can the US leave the region to Iran to squeeze, as it surely will? That’s a vast loss of global position to China and Russia if so.
If the US now must do that, maybe regional instability to keep all sides there tied down is the better realpolitik option, ugly as it sounds(?) However, that also won’t mean lower energy prices.
One can argue this current backdrop, if sustained, *relatively* strengthens the US geostrategic hand as an energy exporter vs others. Yet it also hurts domestically, as we just saw in the midterms.
However, is there a way to get oil prices down without surrendering geostrategic position? If not, are we back to the logic of escalating again before the new Congress sits?
And will the new Congress not face the same old geopolitical problems?
🌍🔥 Elsewhere, Moscow has even less reason to negotiate with Kyiv now it smells US weakness, which surely won’t fight for Ukraine whatever EU countries choose to do with their own force deployments in that country ahead.
Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine war is also likely to escalate - and again hit energy markets as a result given Ukraine knows that’s a key weapon it possesses.
🌍🔥 US allies in Asia are (to quote Mel Brooks) in the Psycho-Neurotic Institute for the Very, Very Nervous.
🌍🔥 Very sadly, being anti-war doesn’t stop wars and the opposite of war is not necessarily “peace”.
🌍⛴️ On tariffs, there is also a geostrategic / national security logic. That’s not just a US issue. Europe is pushing for new tariff instruments vs China, for one key example. Note Biden followed Trump 1 with China tariffs, which are now more global.
🌍⛴️ One could argue any US policy pivot here is most likely to be an opportunity for western economies to *align on common external tariff structures vs China* - which is an end position long argued as geostrategically logical.
🌍🔥 That only accelerates geopolitical tensions; but unfortunately so does removing tariffs if over time that also means weakening the US military-industrial base even further.
⚕️UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE REPUBLICANS' ONLY PATH TO VICTORY
The winner of the 2028 Republican presidential primary has only 1 way to win: promising universal healthcare.
This policy change would reset U.S. political map. Which is why it will happen. #CostOfLiving
@roddreher @newtgingrich @MaryBowdenMD
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Before the midterm elections, I had several GPF subscribers asking if the Republicans lose control of the House or Senate, whether it will make much difference to the U.S.’s geopolitical actions globally.
My field is geopolitics, and this is in a way a political question. However, in my work I have encountered an oddity in the United States, a demonstrable, consistent set of cycles. One is socio-economic, with a crisis occurring every 50 years, with the last one taking place in the 1970s. I also found a consistent cycle of institutional crises every 80 years, with the last one climaxing about 80 years ago, in 1945.
I wrote a book on this, “The Next 100 Years,” forecasting that the 2020s would be the first time both cycles shifted at roughly the same time. It would therefore be a more disrupted cycle, with the disruption and restructuring of American society, economy and institutions creating massive tension. That was published in 2009. In a later book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I forecast that the election of 2028 would signal the beginning of the end of both cycles and a radically new, increasingly stable and significantly different socio-economic and institutional system. Since then I have developed some thoughts on why the United States reinvents itself with such regularity, but I have not fully thought them out yet.
In my view politics is the outcome of these cycles and not the cause of them. I think we are nearing the end of the instability that emerged during the first part of the decade, and will stabilize toward the end of the decade, beginning after 2028. So I do not look at the political tension we are experiencing as the cause of the current crisis, but as an outcome of the cyclical crisis. The U.S. has spent this decade reinventing itself, a disruptive and at times unpleasant experience, but one that is nearing its end, that will not be fully in place until nearer the end of the decade.
As I have said, I am still working through the foundations of these cycles, but the political unrest is in my mind the product of the cycle and in that sense a clearing of the table in preparation for the beginning of a new and significantly different cycle. The political instability, along with the social, economic and institutional instability, is the effect, not the driver of this cyclical process.
☠️🚨COUNTDOWN TO WAR...
"British troops will be allowed to fire back at Russian forces if attacked in mission..."
One day after reported Russian sabotage ops on Polish border, UK issues rules of engagement that include permission to fire on Russian forces if attacked during👇
ResourceWars.com retweeted
This interview deals mostly with my new book, “The Money Dilemma.” Which is out today
Frank Giustra: We’re Walking into WW3, U.S. Politics a “Viper’s Nest”
Don’t miss Part 2 of this exclusive interview: youtu.be/RYnEzmI1gxQ
#economy #gold #finance #debt @DanielaCambone @Frank_Giustra
🚨🚨🚨BOMB THREATS AGAINST AIRLINERS SWEEP EUROPE
Yesterday the food supply was attacked (freezer hack). Today airliners threatened with bombs.
Someone (or something) is running military grade operations to shape the battlefield.
@Michael_Yon
The situation this morning in Europe:
Multiple aircraft across Europe have been targeted by bomb threats this morning, with at least 7 flights affected, triggering emergency security procedures and inspections at several airports.
Affected flights:
🇩🇰 Copenhagen → 🇵🇱 Warsaw (SAS)
🇬🇧 London → 🇵🇱 Warsaw (LOT)
🇬🇧 Manchester → 🇪🇸 Murcia (Ryanair)
🇮🇹 Bergamo → 🇧🇬 Sofia (Ryanair)
🇮🇪 Dublin → 🇧🇬 Sofia (Ryanair)
🇵🇹 Lisbon → 🇮🇹 Rome (Ryanair)
🇮🇪 Dublin → 🇮🇹 Rome (Ryanair)
So far, all reported bomb threats have turned out to be false alarms, with no explosives found on the inspected aircraft.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Congratulations to my friend @Frank_Giustra on the release of his new book, The Money Dilemma.
Frank and I have shared many laughs over the years, often about just how absurd our monetary system has become.
But behind those laughs are some very serious conversations about money, history, and where the world is heading.
I am excited to see him share his perspective with the world.
Congrats, Frank.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Frank Giustra was a beatnik with no formal education.
As a rookie stock broker, he literally fell into a gold mine. Then he built a global mining finance empire, retiring at 39.
Next, he founded Lionsgate Films. Then built a dozen significant resource companies.
His absurd path gave me permission to go for it.
The stories are legendary. His new book is out today!
amazon.ca/Money-Dilemma-Unli… @Frank_Giustra @kevinolearytv
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Just to remind everyone, Kaliningrad = Russia. If @donaldtusk @Poland attacks Russia, we’ll be in a very different world. Whatever peace deal is currently underway over Ukraine will collapse. The implications are huge. All centers on the Suwalki Gap. The lights are already out in Kaliningrad.
ResourceWars being told by multiple high-ranking figures in intel, business & political spheres that Europe is on verge of war with Russia.
India & U.S. attempting to stop the train.
DEVELOPING...
🚨🚨🚨POLAND ON HIGH ALERT: RUSSIA SET TO INVADE?
Poland's chief of police Marek Boroń told Polish broadcaster RMF today police are securing the area bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave against possible sabotage.
News comes 3 days after attempted "coup" attempt in Warsaw.
WORLD TILTING TOWARDS WAR?
Geopolitical master Dr George Friedman weighs in...
I believe we are in a period so wracked by tensions, both national and regional, that it’s necessary to search to see if there is a commonality driving them, even if the tensions present themselves very differently. The United States – the world’s only superpower – is approaching the midterm elections, which have evinced more interparty (and intraparty) stress than usual. Europe is plagued by widespread protests that have, at times, turned violent.
The Middle East, a region where a degree of tension is the norm, is experiencing both the regular tensions between Sunnis and Shiites and profound tensions beyond the norm, while the Gulf states’ level of stress has soared given the war in Iran. That conflict has bled into parts of Africa, particularly around the Horn, and virtually every other region of the world because of its impact on trade and energy prices. India is experiencing political and social unrest, especially in the northeast, over basic political processes.
In China, at last week’s Communist Party plenum, some 33 members of the party were expelled, and five of the seven members of the Military Committee – China’s facsimile of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – have also been expelled. According to Freedom House reports, there is also growing unrest among Chinese workers over economic conditions. And last but not least, there is still a war in Ukraine that has wrecked Russia’s economy (to say nothing of the physical damage inflicted on both sides).
Individually, none of these events is all that unique. Taken together, what is of interest is not that these things are happening in these countries but that so many countries and regions are experiencing them at roughly the same time. That there is apparently no single cause behind these tensions – that they have their own origins and unique manifestations – is what makes them so intriguing.
My full analysis is available to read and share at @GPFutures: geopoliticalfutures.com/glob…
🚨BREAKING: IRAN & U.S. DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH; HIGH-LEVEL TALKS BACK ON
Axios reports "there are significant negotiations" ongoing between Iran & U.S. to end the war.
Just in time for the midterms?
Trump signaled huge attacks immediately following Tues election.
LEVERAGE⌛️
😯U.S. SENATOR: TRUMP WAR PLAN VS. IRAN IS "INSANE"
Speculation mounting U.S. will resume attacks on Iran either just before or just after next week's midterm elections.
🚨U.S. MISSILES ONLY 5-MINUTE FLIGHT TIME TO BEIJING
You cannot understand American power until you realize how dominant it is, despite the doomsayers.
@GPFutures has posted a fascinating look at distances between 🇺🇸Camp Humphreys & Asian cities.
Proximity is power.
More details from @GPFutures on America's presence in South Korea...well worth a read:
geopoliticalfutures.com/the-…
DEEP TRUTHS HERE FROM @Frank_Giustra 👇
"Wars often drag on long after the original strategic case has become obsolete, not because of an enemy’s persistence but because the leader who started or inherited the war can’t bear to be the one who lost."🎯
Read my latest article-“Here’s a third truth: a leader’s personal stake in historical reputation often comes at the cost of the collective interest.” frankgiustra.com/posts/fear-…
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: CEASEFIRE BETWEEN RUSSIA & UKRAINE IS SPREADING THROUGHOUT FRONT
Parliamentary leader of Ukraine's ruling party says it is the "largest de-escalation since 2022"
Could peace finally be breaking out?
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Exclusive:
Three of Britain’s four nuclear deterrent submarines are out at sea in an "unusual" situation, @thetimes has been told
It has been at least five years since this happened, according to former naval source
thetimes.com/article/17663c5…