⚔️📈Geopolitics | Critical minerals | Energy battles | Investing alpha Follow for raw insights & edge.
Joined April 2022
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ResourceWars.com retweeted
Trump plan on the war in Iran backfired because this particular war (like Russia’s war on Ukraine) turned to be a systemic risk (4th in a row after GFC, Covid and the war in Ukraine) with a global multiplicative cascade that mutually strengthens the effects from the other war in Ukraine and eventually hit back US & global economy (like already anticipated in March).
The ultimate impact is the Blue Tsunami in the US, the next will be the more rapid rise of populism in Europe, and more and more political revolts around the globe. This is the stuff revolutions are made of.
As I am on the road in a very different time zone, I haven’t said a great deal about the stunning US midterm elections from a ‘grand macro strategy’ perspective yet - but here are a few quick thoughts (without being party political/analytical or normative):
🌍💭 Grand Macro Strategies are not foolproof and can clearly be both foolish and fooled around with; but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist and/or can’t adapt to new circumstances.
🌍🔥 Is the US anti-war or anti *losing* wars? If Iran had worked out like Venezuela, would it have been the same issue? That is an important distinction.
🌍🔥 Regardless, the clear anti-war message from the US elections has massive geopolitical implications.
🌍🔥 Sadly, they don’t suggest world peace though.
First, it’s still likely Trump still opts to escalate vs Iran to try to achieve what he hasn’t been able to so far.
Second, if there is now a genuinely higher chance that Trump does an Iran TACO, to think that would end all Middle East hostilities —or leave the US in a better geostrategic position overall— is arguably wrong.
🌍🔥 If we assume the US retreats from the Middle East, regional stability is going to be very hard to sustain without the security role it now doesn’t want to play. New structures being set up are rivals as much as pillars. That suggests higher energy prices as a backdrop, just without the US playing a role.
🌍🔥 On the other hand, can the US leave the region to Iran to squeeze, as it surely will? That’s a vast loss of global position to China and Russia if so.
If the US now must do that, maybe regional instability to keep all sides there tied down is the better realpolitik option, ugly as it sounds(?) However, that also won’t mean lower energy prices.
One can argue this current backdrop, if sustained, *relatively* strengthens the US geostrategic hand as an energy exporter vs others. Yet it also hurts domestically, as we just saw in the midterms.
However, is there a way to get oil prices down without surrendering geostrategic position? If not, are we back to the logic of escalating again before the new Congress sits?
And will the new Congress not face the same old geopolitical problems?
🌍🔥 Elsewhere, Moscow has even less reason to negotiate with Kyiv now it smells US weakness, which surely won’t fight for Ukraine whatever EU countries choose to do with their own force deployments in that country ahead.
Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine war is also likely to escalate - and again hit energy markets as a result given Ukraine knows that’s a key weapon it possesses.
🌍🔥 US allies in Asia are (to quote Mel Brooks) in the Psycho-Neurotic Institute for the Very, Very Nervous.
🌍🔥 Very sadly, being anti-war doesn’t stop wars and the opposite of war is not necessarily “peace”.
🌍⛴️ On tariffs, there is also a geostrategic / national security logic. That’s not just a US issue. Europe is pushing for new tariff instruments vs China, for one key example. Note Biden followed Trump 1 with China tariffs, which are now more global.
🌍⛴️ One could argue any US policy pivot here is most likely to be an opportunity for western economies to *align on common external tariff structures vs China* - which is an end position long argued as geostrategically logical.
🌍🔥 That only accelerates geopolitical tensions; but unfortunately so does removing tariffs if over time that also means weakening the US military-industrial base even further.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Before the midterm elections, I had several GPF subscribers asking if the Republicans lose control of the House or Senate, whether it will make much difference to the U.S.’s geopolitical actions globally.
My field is geopolitics, and this is in a way a political question. However, in my work I have encountered an oddity in the United States, a demonstrable, consistent set of cycles. One is socio-economic, with a crisis occurring every 50 years, with the last one taking place in the 1970s. I also found a consistent cycle of institutional crises every 80 years, with the last one climaxing about 80 years ago, in 1945.
I wrote a book on this, “The Next 100 Years,” forecasting that the 2020s would be the first time both cycles shifted at roughly the same time. It would therefore be a more disrupted cycle, with the disruption and restructuring of American society, economy and institutions creating massive tension. That was published in 2009. In a later book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I forecast that the election of 2028 would signal the beginning of the end of both cycles and a radically new, increasingly stable and significantly different socio-economic and institutional system. Since then I have developed some thoughts on why the United States reinvents itself with such regularity, but I have not fully thought them out yet.
In my view politics is the outcome of these cycles and not the cause of them. I think we are nearing the end of the instability that emerged during the first part of the decade, and will stabilize toward the end of the decade, beginning after 2028. So I do not look at the political tension we are experiencing as the cause of the current crisis, but as an outcome of the cyclical crisis. The U.S. has spent this decade reinventing itself, a disruptive and at times unpleasant experience, but one that is nearing its end, that will not be fully in place until nearer the end of the decade.
As I have said, I am still working through the foundations of these cycles, but the political unrest is in my mind the product of the cycle and in that sense a clearing of the table in preparation for the beginning of a new and significantly different cycle. The political instability, along with the social, economic and institutional instability, is the effect, not the driver of this cyclical process.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
This interview deals mostly with my new book, “The Money Dilemma.” Which is out today
Frank Giustra: We’re Walking into WW3, U.S. Politics a “Viper’s Nest”
Don’t miss Part 2 of this exclusive interview: youtu.be/RYnEzmI1gxQ
#economy #gold #finance #debt @DanielaCambone @Frank_Giustra
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Congratulations to my friend @Frank_Giustra on the release of his new book, The Money Dilemma.
Frank and I have shared many laughs over the years, often about just how absurd our monetary system has become.
But behind those laughs are some very serious conversations about money, history, and where the world is heading.
I am excited to see him share his perspective with the world.
Congrats, Frank.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Frank Giustra was a beatnik with no formal education.
As a rookie stock broker, he literally fell into a gold mine. Then he built a global mining finance empire, retiring at 39.
Next, he founded Lionsgate Films. Then built a dozen significant resource companies.
His absurd path gave me permission to go for it.
The stories are legendary. His new book is out today!
amazon.ca/Money-Dilemma-Unli… @Frank_Giustra @kevinolearytv
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Just to remind everyone, Kaliningrad = Russia. If @donaldtusk @Poland attacks Russia, we’ll be in a very different world. Whatever peace deal is currently underway over Ukraine will collapse. The implications are huge. All centers on the Suwalki Gap. The lights are already out in Kaliningrad.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Exclusive:
Three of Britain’s four nuclear deterrent submarines are out at sea in an "unusual" situation, @thetimes has been told
It has been at least five years since this happened, according to former naval source
thetimes.com/article/17663c5…
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Recently a subscriber pointed out China's vast refining capacity, and that they use their oil reserves as a tool, drawing them down and waiting things out. They asked if I felt that with the U.S. midterm elections coming up, wouldn't hobbling the Trump administration be in their long-term interest.
China has the world’s second largest economy. The World Bank says that 21 percent of China’s gross domestic product comes from exports, and the International Monetary Fund says that 11 percent of those exports go directly to the U.S. (This excludes indirect exports.) If there were a global recession based on the economic crisis triggered by the Iran war and oil prices, China would have a major domestic economic problem. The danger to China of losing up to 21 percent of its income far outweighs any short- or long-term impact it could have on the U.S. midterms.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will fundamentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occupations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.
lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/2…
ResourceWars.com retweeted
GOLD TELEGRAPH CONVERSATION 21:
DOUG CASEY
"The world is going to go back to gold. And the only question is at what price?"
In this wide-ranging conversation, Doug Casey explores why he believes the international monetary system is approaching a historic turning point, why central banks are accumulating gold, and how America's growing debt burden could reshape the global financial order.
We discuss the consequences of abandoning the gold standard in 1971, the weaponization of the U.S. dollar, China's monetary ambitions, and why Doug believes a return to gold-backed system could require a dramatically higher gold price.
Beyond monetary policy, Doug reflects on his remarkable career as an investor, his experiences traveling to more than 150 countries, the future of individual freedom, and why he sees extraordinary opportunities in energy and mining stocks.
Doug Casey is a legendary contrarian investor, author of Crisis Investing, and founder of Casey Research.
Thank you for joining me, Doug.
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:29) – Doug Casey's Early Life & Becoming a Contrarian
(03:29) – Discovering Gold, Economics & the Investment World
(06:23) – Buying Gold at $35 & Lessons From Five Decades of Investing
(10:53) – Crisis Investing, Global Travel & Lessons From Around the World
(14:33) – Human Nature, Loyalty & the Importance of Personal Character
(16:54) – Nixon's 1971 Decision to Close the Gold Window
(19:29) – Why Governments Abandoned Gold as Money
(23:18) – Why Gold Is Not Viewed Well by Power
(26:32) – Central Banks, Gold Accumulation & the Future of the U.S. Dollar
(29:11) – Russia's Frozen Reserves & the Weaponization of the Dollar
(37:10) – The Future of Digital Money
(39:52) – Is the International Monetary System Approaching a Historic Reset?
(43:13) – America's Debt Crisis: Default or Inflation?
(45:56) – The IMF, World Bank & Global Financial Institutions
(48:00) – The Decline of Empires
(50:24) – China's Economic Strategy & the Changing World Order
(53:08) – BRICS & the Return to Gold
(57:50) – Doug Casey's Warning...
(59:52) – Artificial Intelligence, Technology & the Future of Civilization
(1:02:09) – Doug Casey's Investment Strategy: Energy & Mining Stocks
(1:06:38) – Unforgettable Experiences Visiting Mining Projects Around the World
(1:09:32) – The Most Important Lessons From a Lifetime of Investing & Travel
ResourceWars.com retweeted
It’s still meaningless small amounts. The merging of neutron stars—a kilonova—is the only place where the pressure is high enough and the neutron flow fast enough to build such a heavy element. The collision must produce heat up to an insanely high 10 billion degrees C to allow the “rapid neutron capture” required to produce gold. As a reference, our sun’s core is only 15 million degrees C. frankgiustra.com/posts/the-f…
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
It’s still meaningless small amounts. The merging of neutron stars—a kilonova—is the only place where the pressure is high enough and the neutron flow fast enough to build such a heavy element. The collision must produce heat up to an insanely high 10 billion degrees C to allow the “rapid neutron capture” required to produce gold. As a reference, our sun’s core is only 15 million degrees C. frankgiustra.com/posts/the-f……
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Following up on the two previous pieces I poster here over the weekend on the French crisis, here is a third piece, published today…
research.gavekal.com/article…
I also discussed the crisis with friend @ErikSTownsend in a soon to be released @MacroVoices podcast episode…
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Very interesting interview. Worthwhile especially if you are interested in #gold
The world is waking up to some very significant news.
The brilliant Judy Shelton has been appointed Counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, where she will advise on currency policy.
Sound money...
Watch my full sit down with Judy, here: youtube.com/watch?v=USGjSU5y…
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Talking about one of the most interesting chapters in my upcoming book “The Money Dilemma” ….Out on November 3rd.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
An American PMC provides security to the president of DRC.
Not saying Kennedy was in on that. But there are several extremely high profile security jobs run by U.S. PMC's in DRC that would put their personnel in direct competition with Russian interests there.
ResourceWars.com retweeted
My first copy. Out Nov 3. Preorder on Amazon -amazon.co.uk/Money-Dilemma-U…
ResourceWars.com retweeted
Mongolia has ordered surveillance measures on its border with Russia after a reported plague death.
