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SpaceX Q3 2026 Earnings Call — 15-Minute Presentation by Elon Musk
**SPCX and AI**
☑️ Elon Musk founded a rocket company
☑️ Today, artificial intelligence has become its largest business
☑️ According to SpaceX, newly deployed AI computing resources can recover their costs in less than one year.
☑️ SpaceX’s earnings call clearly stated that demand for computing power is growing, supply is extremely tight, yet stocks related to AI infrastructure have been unreasonably suppressed
☑️ Asset bubbles burst when demand is insufficient and supply is excessive
In a period of asset bubbles, the current situation typically does not occur
**SPCX and AI**
☑️ Elon Musk founded a rocket company
☑️ Today, artificial intelligence has become its largest business
☑️ According to SpaceX, newly deployed AI computing resources can recover their costs in less than one year.
☑️ SpaceX’s earnings call clearly stated that demand for computing power is growing, supply is extremely tight, yet stocks related to AI infrastructure have been unreasonably suppressed
☑️ Asset bubbles burst when demand is insufficient and supply is excessive
In a period of asset bubbles, the current situation typically does not occur
Alex Mercer retweeted
Yeah not sure how anyone thinks it's over on AI semis like $NVDA GPUs, memory, to photonics, after $SPCX earnings.
- Previous Q4 capex outlook ~$18.4B... Now $35–40 billion Q4 capex guidance, basically doubling previous outlook
"Q3 and Q4 capex should be similar to Q2's $18.37B" from CFO in August.
-Elon: "If everything goes right, we’ll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power next year"
"High confidence of 10 GW next year, and 20 is difficult but not impossible
- "I’m being as precise as possible about this. It is absolutely insane to be deploying and providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that’s needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month"
You're gonna need a lot of HBM, power, networking/optical components to make all of this happen.
- Elon projects SpaceX could exit 2027 with an ARR of "$500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027
When you see $SPCX double capex outlook next quarter, target another 10GW deployment by next year, and all the procurement needed to turn on 220,000 GB300's a month...
Hard not to be bullish on AI semis.
Oil traders are increasingly viewing the maneuvering around the Strait of Hormuz as the "new normal."
☑️ The price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in December 2027 is now approaching $90 per barrel—an all-time high marking a stark contrast to the situation just a month ago
☑️ This is far from good news. If energy prices remain this high, interest rates will likely also stay elevated for a longer period!
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran needs to come to an end as soon as possible
No Market Panic
☑️ For the week ending October 16, 2026, ETF fund flows indicate that the market is not experiencing a broad-based withdrawal, but rather a profound internal structural reallocation
☑️ Within the equity category, U.S. large-cap stocks led the way with a substantial net inflow of $28.19 billion, while U.S. small-cap stocks saw an outflow of $1.14 billion—the largest net outflow among equity segments.
☑️ In the fixed-income category, tax-advantaged municipal bonds topped the list with a net inflow of $5.02 billion, outpacing broad-market (aggregate) bonds.
☑️ This pattern—characterized by capital gravitating toward large-cap stocks while exiting small-cap stocks, alongside a preference for stable fixed-income instruments—clearly reflects a decline in market risk appetite. Capital is increasingly concentrating in large-cap assets and low-risk instruments, underscoring a distinct defensive stance
Rather than a wholesale exit from the market, capital is undergoing an internal reallocation
❗️Among global stock indices, only 8% are currently trading above their 50-day moving average (50DMA).
☑️Does this excessive pessimism signal that the market has bottomed out?
☑️Or is a repeat of 1929 as suggested by President Trump on the horizon?
Bank Stocks See Longest Losing Streak Since the GFC: A Warning Sign or the Eve of a Rebound?
☑️ The KBW Bank Index ($BKX) has recently suffered a seven-week losing streak—its longest consecutive decline since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
☑️ Financial stocks have historically served as the "canary in the coal mine" for macro liquidity and credit risk. This rare, sustained sell-off reflects deep-seated market concerns regarding fundamentals and the interest-rate environment, with the prevailing sentiment leaning toward a defensive posture and a profound market correction.
☑️ Viewed from a dialectical perspective, however, historical precedent suggests that such extreme, prolonged declines often signal that intense, pessimistic expectations have been fully "flushed out." While it is premature to declare an imminent rebound, the deepening oversold conditions mean that any signs of relief—whether from policy shifts or corporate earnings—could easily trigger a technical recovery.
SpaceX
☑️ The artificial intelligence division has grown by 830% over the past year; it is now larger than the Starlink and rocket businesses combined.
☑️ Revenue by business segment for the last quarter:
• Super Intelligence: $7.56 billion
• Starlink: $5.25 billion
• Rocket business: $1.77 billion
☑️ Its computing capacity has nearly tripled over the past year, reaching 1.7 gigawatts (GW). Additionally, the company completed the acquisition of Cursor in August for $60 billion.
AI is not dead! 😊
Alex Mercer retweeted
Bank Stocks See Longest Losing Streak Since the GFC: A Warning Sign or the Eve of a Rebound?
☑️ The KBW Bank Index ($BKX) has recently suffered a seven-week losing streak—its longest consecutive decline since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
☑️ Financial stocks have historically served as the "canary in the coal mine" for macro liquidity and credit risk. This rare, sustained sell-off reflects deep-seated market concerns regarding fundamentals and the interest-rate environment, with the prevailing sentiment leaning toward a defensive posture and a profound market correction.
☑️ Viewed from a dialectical perspective, however, historical precedent suggests that such extreme, prolonged declines often signal that intense, pessimistic expectations have been fully "flushed out." While it is premature to declare an imminent rebound, the deepening oversold conditions mean that any signs of relief—whether from policy shifts or corporate earnings—could easily trigger a technical recovery.
Alex Mercer retweeted
❗️Among global stock indices, only 8% are currently trading above their 50-day moving average (50DMA).
☑️Does this excessive pessimism signal that the market has bottomed out?
☑️Or is a repeat of 1929 as suggested by President Trump on the horizon?
Alex Mercer retweeted
No Market Panic
☑️ For the week ending October 16, 2026, ETF fund flows indicate that the market is not experiencing a broad-based withdrawal, but rather a profound internal structural reallocation
☑️ Within the equity category, U.S. large-cap stocks led the way with a substantial net inflow of $28.19 billion, while U.S. small-cap stocks saw an outflow of $1.14 billion—the largest net outflow among equity segments.
☑️ In the fixed-income category, tax-advantaged municipal bonds topped the list with a net inflow of $5.02 billion, outpacing broad-market (aggregate) bonds.
☑️ This pattern—characterized by capital gravitating toward large-cap stocks while exiting small-cap stocks, alongside a preference for stable fixed-income instruments—clearly reflects a decline in market risk appetite. Capital is increasingly concentrating in large-cap assets and low-risk instruments, underscoring a distinct defensive stance
Rather than a wholesale exit from the market, capital is undergoing an internal reallocation
Alex Mercer retweeted
Lionsgate is reportedly in talks with Jason Statham to return for ‘THE MECHANIC 3’.
Alex Mercer retweeted
THIS IS CRAZY: Legendary QB Aaron Rodgers is on pace to put up monster numbers this season.
• 4,213 passing yards
• 34 passing touchdowns
• 14 interceptions
• 61.4 completion percentage
• 88.0 passer rating
Rodgers is still producing at an impressive level at 42 years old.
