🧐 Global liquidity is still expanding at $169T, up 5.8% over the past 12 months. The problem is the speed. The one-month change is now -2.9%, while the three-month change remains positive at +2.9%. The liquidity level is still supportive, but momentum has slipped below its one-year trend. That is the tension on this chart. Liquidity is still leading Bitcoin, yet the impulse reaching risk assets has weakened. A larger pool of money creates less immediate support when its rate of change is slowing. This is the setup to monitor through the FOMC. If the three-month pace moves back above trend, the macro tailwind strengthens. Continued deceleration leaves the expanding regime fragile. 🩸

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bitcoin:native is sitting almost exactly on its weekly gamma flip. The 7-day map puts the flip at $80.7K, with net dealer gamma still negative at -$5M. The main walls sit at $79K below and $82K above. This is the level I care about. Below the flip, dealer hedging tends to follow price, amplifying moves instead of absorbing them. Above it, that pressure starts to fade and the market becomes more stable. I’m not forcing a directional read while price is sitting on the line. Losing $79K can accelerate the downside. Reclaiming $80.7K shifts the structure, with $82K as the next test. The next bar close will be decisive. 👍

I’ve been quieter here over the past few days. Most of my attention has been going into building. I’m working on new indicators, more dynamic systems for the RR Terminal and a Black Friday offer for those who have been waiting for the right moment to join. I’ll keep sharing content and market insights here. But my main focus remains the work behind the scenes: creating better tools for analysts and serious market participants who want to understand what is actually moving the market and build a real edge over time. A lot is coming. Let’s keep building 🔥

✍️ Most of what I publish here is in English. This post is for the Portuguese-speaking people in my audience who already invest or research crypto, but still rebuild their decision process whenever the market changes. I’ve opened applications for a new Mentoria Ruga cohort. I built it because access to more charts, models and opinions does not automatically become a usable portfolio process. The work is connecting research to risk, sizing, allocation across systems and a review discipline you can repeat. 👉 I’ll work directly with up to five participants for 12 months. The first 90 days focus on implementing that process around each participant’s actual workflow. The following nine months are for applying, reviewing and refining it with RR Terminal Pro and continued private-group support. The program and application are in Portuguese. I review each application personally. Details below. Feel free to DM me if you have any doubts that are not being covered. 👍

📉 Measured against its trend, this whole pullback is around 1.1% deep. That's where Bitcoin sits on VAMS Context right now, still well inside its normal range. Worth being clear on which fair value this is. VAMS Context tracks the medium-term trend, the line price keeps coming back to over weeks, sitting at $82.5K today. It answers a different question from long-term valuation models: is this move normal for the trend we're in? Around that line sits a structural envelope. The inner bands, $79.7K to $85.4K, hold the short-term swings. The outer bands, $77.6K to $87.8K, are where a move starts getting stretched. Outside them, the state changes to breakout, breakdown or extreme, and how many days price stays there is what separates a real move from noise. 📊 On the chart, September's breakout pushed price above the whole envelope and kept it near the top for weeks. October was the cool-down. Price is back in the lower half, 40% of the way up the range, and the state has read NORMAL for 10 days. 👀 The bands move with the trend every day, so I read them as a measure of stretch. Fair value moves too, which means $82.5K isn't a target either. What would change my read is the state itself: a flip into BREAKDOWN that holds for days, while the fair value line starts rolling over. Until then, this is a normal pullback inside the trend.

📢⚡ Heads up, RR Terminal subscribers: LEGIO just got an upgrade. The new version is live on the Terminal from today. I refined some inputs and how the systems behave in certain conditions. The core structure stays exactly the same. The goal was less pain without giving up the risk-adjusted edge, and Invictus, our core system, is where it shows the most. Invictus · full backtest since 2018 Max drawdown: -42% → -34% Sharpe 2.27 · Sortino 4.23 Calmar 9.0 · Alpha vs BTC +275% In practice, the worst stretch you'd have to sit through got about 8 points shallower, with the same kind of risk-return profile. That's the part I care about most, because drawdown is what makes people abandon a system at the wrong time. Vinces moved less. It's the aggressive one by design: it runs a bigger risk budget, and over the backtest the return has paid for it. Vinces · full backtest since 2018 Max drawdown: -39% → -38% Sharpe 2.29 · Sortino 4.37 Calmar 9.1 · Alpha vs BTC +310% If you're subscribed, no need to rush anything. Allocations only shifted slightly inside the bands, and signals keep updating at the daily close like always. And this won't be the last update. The market keeps getting more complex, and these systems are built to adapt with it.