일론 머스크가 "1년 정도"라고 했으니, 그의 시간 감각을 감안하면 최소 3년쯤으로 읽는 게 맞을 것이다. 그래도 연간 100만 대 규모의 생산라인을 이미 갖춰놨다는 사실은 솔직히 놀랍다. 그 정도 물량을 미리 깔아뒀다는 건, 빠르면 2년 안에 심투리얼(Sim-to-Real)이 최소한의 상품성을 확보할 거라는 확신이 있다는 뜻일 테니까.
3년 안에 옵티머스가 정말 팔리기 시작한다면, 그 로봇이 현장에서 어떻게 움직일지가 가장 궁금하다.
차량과 마찬가지로 비전 기반일 건 거의 확실하다. 하지만 차는 전 세계 도로에서 쏟아지는 주행 데이터로 학습이라도 할 수 있다. 공장은 다르다. 첫 공급 물량이 배치될 공장들은 생산라인 구성부터 작업 환경까지 저마다 제각각이다. 한 번도 본 적 없는 공장에 투입된 로봇은 결국 초기에 그 현장을 새로 배워야 한다. 테슬라는 이 문제를 어떻게 풀었을까.
만약 답이 "사람 가르치듯 하면 된다"라면 어떤 모습일까. 신입사원 첫 출근날처럼, 로봇을 라인 앞에 세워두고 작업 순서와 방법을 말로 설명하고, 직접 시범을 보이며 하나씩 가르치는 식일까. 상상만 해도 정말 흥미롭다.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
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Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
特斯拉这季股东信里,加州 Optimus 产线标的是早期爬坡,德州那条还在建。表格底下还有行小字,写着装好的产能不等于实际产量。
所以「开始量产」先别当成明年就能买到,马斯克自己都在泼冷水。
xitter.cf/SawyerMerritt/status/2…
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
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Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
👉🇰🇷🇺🇸 현재 완료형 : 옵티머스 생산이 이미 시작됨
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
留给传统制造业和蓝领的缓冲期,可能只剩最后 365 天了。
马斯克最新透露:特斯拉年产100万台 Optimus 的产线已基本装好,目前只差最后一口气——用未来一年彻底解决AI、机电可靠性和寿命问题。
别嘲笑它现在慢,一旦明年底“寿命和可靠性”被捅破,就是百万硅基劳工下场。如果真成了,最先被洗牌的是哪个行业?
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
로봇 청소기 한번 써보면 없이 어찌 살았나 싶고 못돌아가는데
모든게 다 교육 가능한 24시간 상주하며 가동하는 이모님이 1년정도 남았다고?..
그보다 일년이나 남았다고 실망이라고? 😂
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
실제 대량생산은 2027년 말이나 될것 같네..
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Once in production, the hype will be over! No actual use cases in real life.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
머스크, 테슬라 3분기 실적 콜에서 옵티머스 언급
"초기 생산 시작했다. 성장은 S커브지만 초반 기울기는 완만하다"
프리몬트에 연 100만 대 생산 라인 대부분 설치 완료, 디자인은 아직 조정 중
#Tesla #Optimus #테슬라
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
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Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
I’ll be waiting @elonmusk
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
History ,when Optimus Ðrops 🗓 – at Carter Lake, IA
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
So the first terminator will be ready in about a year, gotcha!
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
いよいよ生産が始まったか。
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
End of 2027 we will be at a 1 million Optimus unit per year run rate. Means start of 2028 will be slightly over 1M per year.
End of 2028 maybe 2 million units per year? End of 2029 4M. End of 2030 8M. End of 2031 16 million. End of 2032 32 million. End of 2033 64M.
This means by 2033 we will have around 120 million humanoid robots in the U.S. just from Tesla. China likely on the same scale by this time.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
이번에 로드스터 이벤트를 보면서 생각난게 있다. 전혀 기대하지 않고 상상도 안한 완성도 높은 제품을 내놓는 것을 보면서, 스티브 잡스의 "One more thing". 철저한 보안속에 완성도를 높여 짜잔~ 하고 공개하는 그거. 다들 알잖아. 지금까지의 테슬라는 너무 많은 것을 공개해서 중국이나 다른 기업들이 죄다 베껴서 오히려 자기네들이 더 낫다고 말하고 다니는거.
난 옵티머스도 로드스터처럼 늦어도 좋으니 세상 모두가 놀라고 따라갈 엄두조차 못낼 제품으로 공개하면 좋겠어.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Sawyer Merritt shares Elon Musk on Optimus: early production has started and most of the 1 million unit/year Fremont line is installed. He believes it'll be the biggest product on Earth, but says to temper expectations for about a year.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
ㅇ ㅏ
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
たったの1年???
「私たちは早期生産を開始しました。Optimusの成長はSカーブですが、初期のカーブは緩やかな傾斜です。私たちはFremontに年間100万台ラインの大部分を設置しました。デザインについてまだ調整が必要な点があります。ロボットのAIについては、まだかなりの作業が残っています。私は、AI、電気機械設計、信頼性、使用寿命、これらの問題が来年末までに解決されると予想しています。私はOptimusが地球上で最大の製品になると確信しています。私は、期待を抑えたいと思います。私たちにはまだ多くの課題が残っており、それを乗り越えるのに約1年かかるでしょう。」
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Q3 @Tesla some gems/news:
@Tesla_Optimus:
Watching football doesn’t make you a great player. You have to practice. The same applies to robots.
Pre-programmed demos aren’t real-world intelligence.
In the next 1/2 months, a demo video of Optimus will be published.
Optimus Academy for Self-Play + Simulation, learning by doing, like kids by playing. They will practice tasks, learn from mistakes and continuously improve.
That’s the flywheel, like with FSD.
Humanoid robots face thousands of different tasks, many more degrees of freedom than cars and complex physical interactions requiring fast decisions and orders of magnitude more compute, that AI5 has.
They must handle soft, squishy and fragile objects without damaging them, perform delicate actions with human-like hands and eventually help build, maintain and repair other robots.
The hands remain one of the hardest engineering challenges. Fingers must withstand wear while staying sensitive enough for delicate manipulation, it does not heal like in the human body.
Tesla is already developing the supply chain, manufacturing lines, AI and robots in parallel, even before the hands are perfected.
Fremont is the starting point. Austin is intended to become a much larger Optimus production hub, with customer deliveries targeted around late 2027.
Industry first.* Homes eventually.**
*Heavy industry, dangerous environments, stressful, repetitive and physically demanding tasks, especially jobs that increase injury risks or people simply don’t want to do.
Robots will eventually operate around the clock. **The long-term goal is affordable general-purpose robots in people’s homes.
FSD AND COMPETITORS: The Last 1% Is the Hardest.
Getting autonomous driving through 90% of situations is relatively straightforward compared with reaching 99% and then handling the extremely rare edge cases. It‘s a very long tail (0.9999999%) and could take them years.
Customers don’t care which AI model or software version is running. They want their car to drive safely, reliably and without intervention. That‘s what they ask for in the car dealerships, not for models. Free trials, including a month with new vehicles, are designed to convert drivers into paying subscribers too.
Cybercab: Transportation as a Service.
Tesla’s ambition is individualized mass transit: convenient autonomous transportation at a target cost of roughly $0.30 per mile.
Most Cybercabs would remain Tesla-owned, with private ownership and third-party fleets following. (2027)
If Tesla can achieve the required safety, costs, scale and regulatory approvals, robotaxis could significantly reduce the need for privately owned cars, especially in cities. They expand and learn now to eventually come down to $0.30 per mile.
Navigation and global expansion:
FSD V15 is expected to improve navigation, preferred routes and path planning.
Tesla combines external maps, proprietary routing and visual localization. Cameras could reduce GPS dependence, while Starlink-based positioning*** will eventually offer additional redundancy.
China remains a challenge because of regulation, data localization, safety standards and geopolitical restrictions with FSD.
Compute, manufacturing and capital investment:
Tesla’s AI5 roadmap, chip manufacturing ambitions and expanding compute infrastructure aim to support both vehicle and humanoid autonomy.
Capital spending is currently coming in somewhat below expectations, with substantially higher investments anticipated in 2027 and potentially double-digit billions of dollars in 2028.
(The precise reason for the near-term spending difference wasn’t explained. Delayed equipment payments are one possibility, not a confirmed explanation.)
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Next stop Mars)
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
$TSLA comenzó la producción de Optimus (y también la de Semis).
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt5hUnited States!
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreLocation may be affected by a proxy or VPN.Account-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."





















