Sr. Elections Analyst, @RCPolitics, Visiting Scholar, @AEI, Lecturer, @osupolisci. Recovering Attorney. Husband, Dad. Writes about elections, history and more.
Joined March 2010
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Thank you everyone! Poll Vault is officially a Substack Bestseller!
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Sean T at RCP retweeted
For DIYers (like yours truly) who like having poll data available for ad hoc analysis
I got 10/15 on Marginle. That's more like it.
🇺🇸 🟡🔵🟢
🏛️ 🟡🟡🟢
👨⚖️ 🟡🟢
Can you do better?
marginle.com/
Every elections analyst trying to decide which pieces to write and which pieces will never get done in October:
Sean T at RCP retweeted
I wrote about Troy Jackson, whose campaign combines left populism on economic issues with hyper-progressivism on cultural ones. Jackson emphasizes his working class bona fides, but like Platner before him, his maximalist politics cater to laptop job progressive suburbanites. 1/
Troy Jackson is courting working-class voters in Maine—while championing a set of policies that many of them don’t support, @Tyler_A_Harper argues. theatlantic.com/culture/2026…
*sigh* It's not like we don't consider these things. The AR-02 poll backs out to Cotton +17 which . . . seems reasonable given other signals? And most of these back out to roughly D+10-12 nationally which is a bit hot IMO, but not inconsistent w/ national #s.
This one seems... slightly more reasonable. I think it ends up heing 1 pt either way, but still ridiculous looking considering there is a poll in AR-2 showing French Hill only up 4!
In no way shape or form is Hill winning by 4, Cognetti winning by 4, Lawrwnce outperforming Cognetti at 8, and Ager winning by 13. Straight up coal.
At the very least, the fact that we are putting out these polls should help convince you that there isn't some giant "suppression poll" psyop. Polls can be wrong, and there's a story to be told this cycle on why, but this is what the data show, from a very good polling company.
These are the three I thought might be too hot on Ds. But it isn't crazy that an even PVI district would have a flawed Dem up 8 in this environment. I expected 4. At a certain point, we do the social science for a reason.
Sean T at RCP retweeted
TX IPEV IMPORTANT COUNTIES:
Day 2 was good for Dems, though significantly less so than Day 1. In 16 counties representative of the state, the implied 2024 partisanship is still well-left of where the first two days of EV were 2 years ago. If I had all of the remaining 238 counties the recalled vote would probably be something like Trump +6 (8 point shift left from 2024).
Best points for Dems: Hispanic voters (Hidalgo, Cameron)
Worst points for Dems: non-college whites (Hardin, Randall) are barely budging. But... their turnout is terrible so far.
Lots of non-voters that are skewing young/nonwhite.
White voters are really punching below their weight even in urban areas.
Indians in Collin/Fort Bend are possibly beginning to pop off in turnout/bluer recall.
More updates will be made - but here is where we are in day 2 of IPEV.
Interactive here:
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
On our polls: I'd recommend watching the briefing I did yesterday (and I'll probably write things up later today). There are a couple of polls that I think are hot on Dems, but overall they tell a story consistent with other public polling. 1/
It's *okay* to recognize that modern polling has problems and that error margins are real. But at a certain point, you turn into the people who saw stronger-than-expected Trump showings w/ minorities in 16/20/24 and said "it cannot be." We do the social science for a reason. 2/
Sean T at RCP retweeted
According to Fox News poll: “Views of Talarico are net positive, albeit by just 1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are underwater by 17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among "double haters," voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.”
A 50-point advantage among 5% of voters contributes approximately 2.5 points to Paxton's statewide margin.
There may be a ceiling on how much Talarico can benefit from Paxton's personal liabilities. The voters who dislike Paxton but remain unwilling to vote for Talarico because of his own liabilities, are precisely the voters he needs to convert.
Our separate poll of TX-35 backed out to an even race, so this is consistent.
Emerson has…
49 Talarico
48 Paxton
3 Brown
51 Abbott
47 Hinojosa
2 Dixon emersoncollegepolling.com/te…
This was our initial response, and I said in the presentation some of these polls might be hot on Ds. But backing out to state/national national numbers is useful as a sanity check, not something to take literally. Swing is never uniform.
If you missed our presentation today and ten congressional district polls (MI-7, PA-8, IA-2, TX-35, MT-1, FL-14, MO-2, AZ-2, NC-11, AZ-2), you can still see the recording and find out which one (not a typo) Rs lead in downthread here. 1/2
Here's the link. we're going to try not to make too much content only for paid subscribers, but since we did have to pay for the polls, we went ahead and did it here.
pollvault.substack.com/p/lev…