@WinWithJMC

JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/Numbers guy

 Louisiana
winwithjmc.com
Joined October 2012
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JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (10/21) Early voting remains "life in the fast lane." VBM shot up from 9.8 to 11.15M, while in person voting increased from 6.0 to 8.3M. Altogether, we're at 19.5M early votes (47-30% D/R in party reg states). There is also a gap opening up between (1/)
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in person (+12 D) and mail voters (+18 D). At this point in time in 2022, 14.25M had voted (48-32% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning-this is not a perfect "apples to apples") Today,DE/DC/MD are going online.On Saturday, it's all 67 Florida counties, as well as MI/NJ/NY. (2/2)
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19.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. Texas did its civic duty, with 2.13M voting.
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For DIYers (like yours truly) who like having poll data available for ad hoc analysis
Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrendeOct 21
This is super-exciting. If you go to the RCP website, you'll see the "RCP + AI" button. Signing up (which you should do with whatever email you use for AI) will send you to instructions on how to add a connector that you can then use for research into RCP's poll database.
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18.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. This time, it's Florida's turn !
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CLOSING IN ON 18 MILLION EVs Just need one more update (FL will be in 20 mins :))
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JMC discussed the robust black early vote in the Gret Stet theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/…

Black voters are showing up early in Louisiana’s election. Here’s why it could matter.

Democrats are hoping the turnout will drive them to big upsets. Republican candidates say they aren’t worried.

theadvocate.com
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17.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. Texas put us over the top, with 1.78M voting so far.
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TODAY'S EVing Kicks off in DE, DC, and MD Next up to "bat": on 10/24, MI, NJ, and NY On 10/27, all counties in KS Then OK in 10/28 And KY on 10/29
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1.MILLION.VOTED.IN.NORTH.CAROLINA.
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LOUISIANA SECOND DAY EARLY VOTING 2nd day numbers, compared against recent "midterm-ish" elections: 2022 Senate:147,007, 73-24 white/black and 44-42 Dem/Rep 2023 Governor:118,194, 72-25.5 white/black and 43.5-42 R/D 2026 Senate:175,713, 65-32 white/black and 43-41 D/R (1/)
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The 32% cumulative black percentage was the 3rd highest EVER going back to 2008 (only 2020 President/the May 2026 primary were higher). The 176K turnout figure was 3rd highest EVER - only exceeded by 2020/2024 President. (3/)
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Guessing turnout is a bit of a stretch from only TWO days, but if you assume that 35% of the total vote will be cast early, that equates to a 45-79% estimated total turnout (JMC is now thinking 40-45% turnout is the current "correct answer" to projected turnout) (4/4)
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16.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. California put us over the top, with over 2.15M voting so far.
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EARLY VOTE "APPLES TO APPLES" TRACKER (10/20) (Original tweet had typo on the dates, fixed) "Same point in time" comparison between 2022 and 2026. (1) total EV turnout up 33%, and (2) in states with partisan data,only marginally more Dem than in 2022 (from +18 to +19 D).
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JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (10/20) Early voting remains "life in the fast lane." VBM shot up from 8.6 to 9.8M, while in person voting increased from 4.6 to 6.0M. Altogether, we're at 15.8M early votes (48-30% D/R in party reg states). (1/2)
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At this point in time in 2022, 11.77M had voted (49-31% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning-this is not a perfect "apples to apples") Today, only WV is going online. Tomorrow, it'll be DE/DC/MD. (2/2)
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15.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. Arizona put us over the top, with over 600K voting so far.
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14.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED. The Gret Stet of Looziana put us over the top (yes, I plead fully guilty to counting LA's EV before I got to MT and MI)
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