Tweet dedicati al sentiment dei mercati finanziari, grafici sul sentiment e sullo spessore
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Sentimentcharts retweeted
5 of Wednesday’s best charts and insights:
dailychartbook.com/p/our-cta…
Sentimentcharts retweeted
The Nasdaq 100's last 65 days look a lot like 17 other stretches since 2007.
A year later, it was higher after 16 of them, with an average gain of 23%.
The ride wasn't always smooth. The 2008 match fell nearly 39% below the signal price, then finished the year slightly positive.
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/simi…
Sentimentcharts retweeted
Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator entered the week more than 2 SD below its average.
via Robbie Stankard, GS
Sentimentcharts retweeted
From @DuncanLamont2 at Schroders... Half of MSCI ACWI stocks are down 20%+ from their 12-month highs, and 20% are down 40%+
Yet $ACWI is still up 14% overall. Perspective matters: despite the pullbacks, investors still hold solid gains after a massive run-up.
Sentimentcharts retweeted
"This has likely a lot to with long/short hedge funds, who use liquid ETFs as well as index futures and options to adjust their betas. But they are not shorting outright. Instead they are shorting index risk to mitigate their net positions"
@LondonSW
Sentimentcharts retweeted
BREAKING: Investors sold -$3.5 billion in US equities last week, bringing the 2-week total to -$18.5 billion.
Communication Services led the outflows, at -$4.8 billion, the biggest weekly outflow since the sector was formed in 2018.
Retail investors accounted for 70% of those sales, at -$3.3 billion, followed by hedge funds at -$900 million, and institutional investors at -$600 million.
At the same time, industrials recorded -$1.2 billion in investor withdrawals, the 13th consecutive weekly outflow.
Meanwhile, 7 of 11 sectors attracted inflows, led by Consumer Discretionary, which saw +$1.1 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since late-August.
Equity flows remain extremely volatile.
Sentimentcharts retweeted
Just 30% of CAC 40 stocks are above their 200 day moving averages, leaving French market breadth more than 30 percentage points behind the S&P 500.
After similar signals, the S&P 500 was higher a year later 89% of the time.
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/the-…
Sentimentcharts retweeted
"CTAs have sold nearly $3bn of Nasdaq 100 futures over the past three sessions, the largest three-day selling wave since March 2025. Looks like they timed the low perfectly..."
Goldman Sachs via ZeroHedge
Sentimentcharts retweeted
Goldman updated their SPX CTA estimates Monday and per @dailychartbook's nightly email now see as their base case approximately $11.5B in selling just this week ($23.3B globally with selling "across all regions").
Here's the full breakdown:
Over the next 1 week…
Flat tape: Sellers -$11.6B out of the SPX
Up tape (+2 s/d): Sellers -$5.9B out of the SPX
Down tape (-2.5 s/d): Sellers -$26.4B out of the SPX
Over the next 1 month…
Flat tape: Sellers -$11.9B out of the SPX
Up tape: Buyers $11.2B into the SPX
Down tape: Sellers -$64.4B out of the SPX
BofA saw significant selling from the systematic community last week and sees CTAs now into a sell cycle.
"CTA equity positioning continues to narrow following another difficult week for technology shares. Price trends are projected to weaken across most equity markets next week. Higher realized volatility could also reduce position sizes where CTAs remain long. S&P 500 futures are now the only equity market in this report with consensus long positioning across model speeds and risk tolerances, but that exposure is increasingly at risk, with the first sell trigger only 0.5% below current levels."
As they noted, the sell trigger for the S&P 500 now sits just around −0.5% away (from ~−1.1% last week), and it’s now the only equity market in BofA’s report where CTAs are still long across all model speeds.
The Nasdaq-100’s sell trigger is even closer at ~−0.2% (from ~−0.9%). For the Russell 2000 they see the next sell trigger at ~−3.0% (from essentially at its trigger last week) along with a buy trigger at +2.4%.
Globally they see selling in all scenarios for the upcoming week:
−$79B of selling in a “down” market (defined as the 2.5th percentile price path or ~−2.9%, different than Goldman who uses −4.5%; from −$81B last week), with CTAs selling ~$50B, vol control ~$20B and risk parity ~$9B
−$48B of selling in a flat market (from −$10B last week) as selling from CTAs (~$38B) and vol control (~$17B) more than offsets ~$7B of buying from risk parity
−$1B of selling in an “up” market (defined as the 97.5th percentile price path or ~+3.5%, similar to Goldman; from −$3B last week) as ~$21B of vol-control selling offsets buying from CTAs (~$14B) and risk parity (~$6B).
Sentimentcharts retweeted
"We estimate ~27% of the index is currently in open window, with that number almost doubling to ~50% by the end of the week."
-Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs
Sentimentcharts retweeted
"Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by SPX downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago."
-Mandy Xu, Cboe
Sentimentcharts retweeted
DB: Overall, equity positioning has now fallen to neutral (0.02sd, 41st percentile), with discretionary investor positioning (-0.50sd, 18th percentile) at the lowest in over a month.
Systematic strategies’ positioning (0.65sd, 79th percentile) also fell this week from elevated levels but is still overweight.
The Week Ahead – Can Big Tech Earnings Save the Day?
Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report alongside an FOMC decision and a packed week of economic data.
pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
Sentimentcharts retweeted
The CNN Fear & Greed Index (blue line) plummeted to 17.9 Friday, the least since April 1st, from 45.0 a week ago, falling into “Extreme Fear”.
All seven indicators are below Neutral with six in Extreme Fear.
Extreme Greed = None
Greed = None
Neutral = None
Fear = junk bond demand (vs investment grade) (from Extreme Greed)
Extreme Fear = market momentum (SPX vs 125-DMA) (from Greed); stock price strength (net new 52-week highs); stock price breadth (McClellan Volume Summation Index); put/call options (5-day put/call ratio) (from Fear); market volatility (VIX & its 50-DMA) (from Neutral); safe haven demand (20-day difference in stock/bond returns) (from Greed)
The Week Ahead – The Rotation Continues
AI worries are pressuring Tech and sending yields lower as we embark on a heavy earnings week including several names in the cross-hairs.
pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
Sentimentcharts retweeted
"We are currently in peak earnings blackout, with just 24% of S&P 500 index weight outside repurchase blackout windows. That figure rises to ~55% by month-end, ~75% by November 3 (Midterm Election Day), and ~85% by November 9"
-Scott Rubner, Citadel
Sentimentcharts retweeted
When a magazine puts the market on its cover, it's usually time to do the opposite.
63 magazine covers over 24 years is a thin sample, roughly two and a half a year, so I wouldn't lean too hard on this chart in isolation.
That said, I've come across other studies with larger samples that land in a similar place: by the time a bearish cover hits the newsstand, much of the pain tends to be behind us, and bullish covers have a habit of showing up near the top.
I think investors are best served by using the entire toolkit available to them. Fundamental analysis, technical analysis, sentiment and perception analysis, data-driven insights, boots-on-the-ground research and plain common sense each catch things the others miss.
Being a contrarian works, as this chart illustrates, and the magazine cover indicator is one small piece of the sentiment puzzle we try to solve when looking for signs that a bottom is near, whether in an individual stock or a broad index.
On individual stocks, @SixSigmaCapital recently wrote a great thread on how he times his entries, and social media sentiment plays a part in it. In many ways, the tone on X and SS is the modern proxy for the magazine cover.
I'd add one caution. Fintwit is its own echo chamber, and the mood in our corner of the internet doesn't always reflect how the broader investing public feels.
Sentimentcharts retweeted
$SPX barely moved, but gamma exposure dropped 43% in a single session.
From Oct. 9 to Oct. 12, SPX slipped just 0.06%, while GEX fell from +$12.84B to +$7.34B.
GEX remains positive, but there may now be less of a cushion against index swings.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
