@Shauncore
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CFA. Caution: will tweet a lot (of bad opinions) about sports (NFL/MLB), sabermetrics, movies (especially 00s comedies), and television. Sometimes my dogs too.
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Joined April 2009
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Friends: I started a Substack called "The Analytics Say..." where I'm going to be writing about thoughts that are too long for Twitter.
It is free and will always be free.
My first post is on where does the Royals organization goes from here
theanalyticssay.substack.com…
I can fix the Colts (Sauce Gardner and Keenan Allen aren't in the PFF trade tool or they'd have been traded too)
I wish folks would *try* do you understand the compact formula a little more. You shouldn’t assume your team will be making that come pick until it’s locked in. Too many unknown variables like offseting FA deals, player gets injured and doesn't get enough snaps, etc
I don't think people know that snap counts are a 10-20% factor in the formula, and if a player gets hurt in camp they could miss the entire season and the pick drops down a round
Colts fans - do not read into the exact players picked. The idea is trading these players to those teams, the value, and taking a QB in the draft plus BPA
This is a massive game for both the Ravens and Bengals for Lamar to miss. If the Ravens lose, their playoff odds drop to ~60% vs ~85% with a win. Bengals go from ~40% with a loss vs ~70% with a win
Lamar Jackson (ankle) not seen at beginning portion of practice open to the media on Wednesday, per @CordellWoodland.
Here is the exact math on the ESPN model for this poor Minter decision. It is simply saying "do you think the Ravens have a 40.5% chance or better of converting 4th and 2?" If the answer is yes, then go for it.
I wish Josh Simmons the best, but Chiefs fans on here stop giving yourself anxiety and headache of him. He's like the 20-25th best LT right now if fully healthy. Their season is more dependent on WR/CB depth than having Benson out there.
Really cool idea, here is the Ravens WR core vs the Titans after Lamar got hurt (basically the last play before halftime so a nice even split). Ravens stopped passing. Would be cool to also be able to do EPA and success rate too
A new tool just went up for @FantasyPtsDataData Suite 2.0!
Now you can find exact usage changes exactly when a player leaves a game.
Select any players final logged snap, change in score, certain drives etc.
Here is the link for how I pulled this Patriots backfield stat
fantasypointsdata.com/play-s…
I agree with Shanny and at the same time, I would say most analytics folks wouldn't have an issue if you ignore 51% (and like the ESPN model don't even include anything below 0.5% WPA in their tally). But some coaches don't even do +5% WPA decisions at times
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”
“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
Still want to see how they do against real teams but Chiefs have been on a roll so far on both sides
We know pressures are subjective and can differ by data provider. Here is pressure rate according to PFF and SumerSports for edge rushers this year
Not *this* version of the 49ers but relatively healthy San Francisco is better (with Evans, Bosa, Stribling, and Deebo - if that ever happens)
