StatSharp

We keep coming back to the defenses in this afternoon's Kansas City-Denver matchup. StatSharp's power ratings have the offenses dead even at 27, with Denver holding a slight defensive advantage. Our projected score is 18-18. The market has Kansas City -1.5 with a total of 40.5. StatSharp makes the game essentially a toss-up and projects just 36 combined points. What's interesting is that both team totals are 20.5, and the model puts each offense at 18. We're less interested in figuring out which quarterback makes the winning play than whether either offense can consistently move the ball against these defenses. Feels like a game where field position and one turnover could decide everything.

Tampa Bay just embarrassed Carolina 43-13. Great performance. But here's a number worth remembering before backing the Bucs against Atlanta today. Todd Bowles is 1-7 ATS at home following a victory by 10+ points. Those eight games produced an average Tampa Bay score of 19.1-22.8, despite an average spread near pick'em. The market has repeatedly rewarded the Bucs for their previous blowout. They haven't rewarded bettors who followed.

Daniel Jones passing TD props this season: 7 bets on the Under. 7 winners. +8.6 units. He's thrown just 4 TD passes in those 7 games, averaging 0.6 per game against a posted number averaging 1.2. It's one of the more remarkable individual prop trends in the NFL right now. Jacksonville is next. The question is whether bookmakers have finally adjusted enough to take away the value.

The number that jumps off the page in our Florida-Georgia simulation isn't the projected 37-22 final. It's yards per play. Georgia: 7.4 Florida: 5.0 The Bulldogs are projected to average 10.3 yards per pass attempt, while Florida manages just 3.2 yards per rush. That's a pretty big efficiency mismatch for a game lined Georgia -11.5. Florida needs to sustain drives and keep Georgia's offense off the field. The simulation doesn't see that happening often enough.

At what point does a losing streak become something more than bad luck? Maryland has dropped five straight, and the betting history isn't encouraging. Since 2024, the Terps are 0-8 ATS after three consecutive conference losses, getting outscored 38.4 to 16.8 on average. Even more telling, they've been catching an average of 10.1 points in those games. Illinois visits this afternoon. The market has repeatedly given Maryland points in these situations, and the Terps have repeatedly failed to take advantage.

Wisconsin-Iowa has a total of 36.5, so every point on the spread matters. Iowa -2.5. StatSharp projects Wisconsin 17-16 and gives the Badgers a 64.6% chance to cover. In a game where neither team may reach 20, getting nearly a field goal isn't insignificant.

We've looked at a lot of college football totals this week, but Arizona-Texas Tech might have the biggest disagreement between the market and our numbers. The total is sitting at 54.5. StatSharp projects just 43 points. Arizona 22, Texas Tech 21. That also puts the Wildcats on the right side of a 3.5-point spread, with the model giving Arizona a 53.5% chance to win outright. We're especially interested in Texas Tech's team total Under 30.5. Asking the Red Raiders for 31 points in a game our ratings project at 43 combined seems awfully optimistic. One of Saturday's more interesting betting matchups.

The bullpen matchup is worth a closer look before World Series Game 5. Milwaukee's relievers have a 1.31 ERA this postseason versus Tampa Bay's 3.81. Aaron Ashby has been nearly untouchable, extending his scoreless streak to a postseason-record 18 innings with 2⅓ perfect frames yesterday. Abner Uribe added two scoreless innings, while DL Hall, JoJo Romero and Trevor Megill also kept the Rays off the board. But Tuesday's 12-inning game changed the equation. Tampa Bay's bullpen answered with 8 innings of one-run ball. Nick Martinez and closer Bryan Baker each delivered two scoreless innings, while Tyler Wells and Cam Booser helped keep Milwaukee quiet in extras. The big question tonight isn't just which bullpen is better. It's which arms still have enough left after yesterday's marathon. Ashby threw 31 pitches, Uribe worked two innings, and Tampa Bay used Martinez for 33 pitches and Ian Seymour for 32. Milwaukee has the statistical advantage. Tampa Bay may have narrowed the gap, but both managers face some tough bullpen decisions tonight.

Detroit is laying 3 at home, but our simulation actually has Green Bay winning 26-24. The part that stands out isn’t just the score — it’s the efficiency gap. Green Bay projects at 6.2 yards per play to Detroit’s 5.4, with the Packers holding the Lions to 6.5 yards per pass attempt despite 40 projected throws. If Xavier McKinney and that secondary can keep Amon-Ra St. Brown from generating explosives, the defensive edge could be enough to swing the NFC North matchup. newsletters.statsharp.com/po…

Andrews’ Production Keeps Sliding “Mark Andrews is 10-2 to the Under on both receptions and receiving yards against AFC opponents since the 2025 season, hitting the Under 83.3% of the time in each market.” The betting market may still be pricing Mark Andrews closer to the player he once was than the player he has become. Age appears to have taken something off what was once one of the NFL’s most dependable tight-end production profiles, and familiar AFC defenses have been particularly effective at keeping him from becoming a major part of Baltimore’s passing game. Andrews has averaged only 2.3 receptions in these conference games against an average prop of 3.3, producing a 10-2 Under record and +8.6 units. The yardage discrepancy is even more pronounced: just 19.3 receiving yards per game versus an average posted line of 34.8—a massive 15.5-yard gap that has also produced a 10-2 Under record and +7.8 units. Cincinnati knows Andrews and Baltimore’s offense well, making Sunday another interesting test of whether the market has fully repriced his current role. In prediction-market terms, the recent evidence suggests the probability of Andrews staying below traditional receiving thresholds may still be higher than the posted prop prices imply. Both receptions and receiving yards point toward the same underlying story: declining volume, familiar defenses and a market that may still be catching up.

I keep coming back to Ole Miss-Texas. The market has Texas -3.5 at home. StatSharp’s simulation has Ole Miss winning 29-24. That’s an 8.5-point swing from the spread, with the Rebels also projecting for 29 points against a 24.5 team total. If Texas’ slide is going to continue, this looks like the kind of spot where it could get expensive.

College Football’s Most Mispriced Teams in '26 The betting market gets smarter every week—but it still gets some teams very wrong. Using StatSharp’s ATS +/-, we measured how far each Power 5 team has finished above or below the closing point spread on average this season. The results reveal which teams have consistently been underpriced by the market and which programs bettors have been paying too much for. UCLA and Wake Forest have been beating market expectations by double digits per game, while teams like Stanford and Washington have repeatedly fallen well short of the number. These aren’t just ATS wins and losses—they show the actual size of the market’s pricing errors. The bigger question now is whether sportsbooks and prediction markets have finally adjusted their numbers—or whether some of these inefficiencies are still hiding in plain sight. Read more 👉 statsharp.com/joomla/index.p…

Minnesota’s biggest problem in this matchup may be painfully simple: the Gophers might not be able to run the ball at all. StatSharp projects Minnesota for just 43 rushing yards on 24 carries — 1.8 yards per attempt. Iowa, meanwhile, is projected for 146 on the ground and a 26-16 win. If Minnesota gets forced into obvious passing situations all afternoon, Iowa -7 starts to make a lot more sense.

Is Oklahoma City still undervalued at -8.5 against Denver? StatSharp's simulation projects a 125-115 Thunder win, while its power ratings are even more bullish, estimating a 14-point margin. Both models favor OKC against the current spread, despite the line moving a point toward the Thunder.

Mike Vrabel's Patriots have been remarkably good to bettors in October. New England is a perfect 6-0 ATS in October games since last season, outscoring opponents by an average of 30.1 to 18.1. They're getting 3 points tonight in Chicago.

Tonight's Bucks-Wizards opener features two teams that were brutal to back last season. Milwaukee went 36-45 ATS (-14.1 units), while Washington was even worse at 33-48 ATS (-20.2 units). Combined, that's 69-93 ATS and a loss of 34.3 units. One bright spot? Washington games went 47-34 to the Over (+9.9 units).

Caleb Williams may be back, but our ratings still don’t buy Chicago as the better team here. StatSharp projects Atlanta 26-23, with the Falcons covering +1.5 62.5% of the time and winning outright 58.6% of simulations. The market may be giving the Bears too much credit for getting their QB back.