🔶We have other great team notes, but this one is perhaps the most important: we did not find any Republican non-response bias in our poll.

🔶Spanberger is the floor. Democrats are winning over voters who, at this point, planned to vote for Winsome Sears in 2025. Most people who were undecided in the 2025 gubernatorial race have already decided to vote Democratic. 🔶The undecideds overall skew Republican-leaning based on their previous vote choices. 🔶Most partisans kept their party ID the same, but Democrats have gained in party ID over time.

🔶This electorate is expected to be older than in 2025, largely driven by a lack of enthusiasm among Republicans under the age of 45 (as seen in many states). 🔶Our presidential recall is Harris +14, up from Harris +12 in our first poll last year. 🔶Latinos are expected to be a slightly smaller portion of the electorate compared to 2025, and Black voters are expected to make up a slightly higher share.

🔶Democrats have doubled their margins with voters under 45 compared to Spanberger in 2025. 🔶The early vote is 72D-28R. We're looking at a much more Democratic early vote this year, and the early vote will be a majority of the votes cast in 2026. This is similar to 2024, when it was 51% of all votes cast, and unlike 2025, when it was 44%. 🔶As seen in early voting across the nation, black voters are making up a higher share of the early vote relative to their typical share. At this point, it was 18% black in VA; now it's 22%.

Highlights from the poll: Trump's net approval is -29 points, down 14 points since our April poll of likely voters in the redistricting referendum electorate. That's 2 points better than Trump's approval in VA in our approval model. projects.statenavigate.com/i…

We conducted this poll as part of our team's ongoing experiment and analysis of presidential recall vote in 2026 polling. We followed up with respondents from our October 2025 and April 2026 polls to help build our upcoming model. We decided to release these survey results to throw our hat in the ring in one federal election poll this year and to give our Virginia audience a treat in a year when we're focused on other states. We're hoping for an 'A' rating this year, and this period matters to graders; another factor in our decision to release the findings: we know Virginia well. We have three gubernatorial surveys slated for release next week, along with our findings on the presidential recall vote.

Today marks one year, to the minute, since the first-ever @StateNavigate statewide poll in Virginia. We don't typically conduct polling for federal elections, but we've made an exception for Virginia, our home, this year. Happy Anniversary. xitter.cf/ChazNuttycombe/status/…

🚨NEW VIRGINIA POLL🚨 Virginia Congressional Generic Ballot 🔵Democrats +20 🔵59% Democrats 🔴39% Republicans ⚪️3% Undecided ⬅️ 16-point shift to Democrats from 2024 articles.statenavigate.com/v… 🧵

🚨NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLLS🚨 SD-6 (Trump +6) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) SD-16 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) SD-36 (Trump +15) | 🔴GOP +2 (FLIP) HD-18 (Trump +3) | 🔵DEM +10 (FLIP) HD-41 (Trump +5) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) HD-131 (Trump +10) | 🔵DEM +5 (FLIP) HD-142 (Trump +3) | 🔵DEM +4 (FLIP) HD-143 (Trump +6) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) HD-145 (Trump +16) | 🔴GOP +3 HD-187 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +5 (FLIP) articles.statenavigate.com/p…

ICYMI: we now have a national state legislative forecast simulator. Plug in what you think will happen in the general election and how demographics will vote, and see how it stacks up against our forecasts. projects.statenavigate.com/2…