Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital) profile picture

Jay Komsa 🇺🇸

@SumValCapital

AI infra capital markets. Compute debt, SPVs, private credit, power-linked finance. Deal structures, not hype. | SumVal

 Maryland, USA
Joined June 2021
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Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)Photo by Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)
Everyone’s arguing about who builds the AI factories. Almost nobody’s asking the better question: Who finances the GPUs — and who eats it when utilization slips or the boxes age out? That’s the real AI infra capital markets story.
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US GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3, up from 2.2% (BEA, Oct 29) within equipment investment, the biggest driver was information processing gear, mainly computers and the largest import category was capital goods, so a lot of that AI spend is shipping in from abroad
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a new $63B vehicle will buy Broadcom AI chips and lease them to Anthropic, with BofA, Citi and Morgan Stanley on the first lien and Blackstone on the second (Broadcom release, Oct 26) Broadcom itself is giving residual value support equal to the first lien piece
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so the seller of the chips is also promising the lenders what the chips will be worth later that makes the senior debt safer and puts more of the risk back on Broadcom its own default insurance hit a record 175 basis points Thursday (ICE via Bloomberg, Oct 29)
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Oracle says it needs no more than $20B of new outside money through fiscal 2030, split evenly between debt and equity, and expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 (Reuters, Oct 28)
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it carries $125B of notes and borrowings, and its 5-year default insurance still sat around 287 basis points that day (Reuters) a cap is a promise, and credit markets will price it as one until the cash shows up
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Only taxpayers should be allowed to vote. Anyone on welfare benefits should forfeit their right to vote until they are off of government assistance.
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running late on a data center is turning into a nine-figure problem new tenant deals are asking developers for upwards of $5M for every day of delay, up from a $1M-a-day late fee that got insured this spring (The Information via Benzinga, Oct 25)
Image from Jay Komsa 🇺🇸 (@SumValCapital)
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at $5M a day, a 30-day slip is $150M (my math) the catch is most delay insurance only pays after physical damage, not for a late transformer or a missed grid hookup (Marsh) just my read, but schedule risk is credit risk now
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Money tip #10: Here's what your car loan really costs you. Borrow $38,000 at 9% for 4 years: $7,390 extra to the bank. Stretch it to 7 years for a smaller payment: $13,356. Same car. $5,966 more. How many months is your car loan? Not financial advice.
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The math, $38,000 at a 9% example rate: 4 years: $7,390 extra to the bank. 7 years: $13,356 extra. $13,356 - $7,390 = $5,966. 3 more years of borrowing, just for a smaller payment.
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Microsoft trimmed its 2026 capex outlook to about $170B from $175B, and part of the reason is that outside GPU providers are running late, pushing some capacity into the first half of 2027 (CNBC, Oct 29) Microsoft leans on neoclouds like CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius
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those are the same companies paying up to borrow right now if a delivery slips, the customer can wait. the lender charging double digits can't watch which neocloud names the next capacity update
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a year ago Amazon generated $14.8B of free cash flow over twelve months now it's an outflow of $42.4B, driven by $94.8B more spent on property and equipment, mostly AI (Amazon Q3 release, Oct 29) and Jassy says 2027 spending will be meaningfully more than this year's ~$220B
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AWS grew 39% to $46B in the quarter, so the demand is real (CNBC, Oct 29) the question for me is how long the retail side keeps funding a cloud build that eats more cash than the whole company makes
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an AI lab is paying to lock in power gear before it has even signed for the power Atlas Energy borrowed up to $424M from Goldman Sachs and Barclays, $171M drawn so far, to buy generators and equipment for an unnamed AI lab that agreed to cover the costs (Oct 22)
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the catch is the loan is due in 180 days, and Atlas only gets 184 more days if the long-term power contracts get signed first power isn't expected until late 2027 just my read, but when power gear is this scarce, buyers commit early and hope the paperwork catches up
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Intel closed down 28.6% Friday after guiding Q4 revenue to $15B to $16B against about $17.1B expected (Reuters, Oct 30) memory makers shifting capacity to AI chips is pushing up PC costs, and Intel sees PC chip sales down more than 20% this quarter
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the AI buildout has a bill that shows up in other people's earnings when memory goes to data centers first, the PC buyer pays more or waits, and the chipmaker on the other end eats it
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Money tip #14: a market crash only hurts invest-first if it hits late. $400K at 7%, extra $500/mo. Prepay: 19 yrs 3 mos. Invest first: 17 yrs 5 mos, same after a year-1 crash. A year-15 crash flips it by 4 months. Would you still invest first? Not financial advice.
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banks still clearly want to lend to data centers, as long as the borrower looks steady AirTrunk just got a A$4.25B loan (about US$3B) for one Sydney campus, SYD3, from 32 lenders, with 14 banks underwriting it (Oct 27)
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what AirTrunk didn't say is the interest rate so we know how big the appetite is, not what it costs just my read, but the price on the next deal will tell you more than the size of this one
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