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If you only watch one thing on AI, make it this....
Jaron one of the smartest and most respected voices in the field and has been here since the word “AI” itself.
he traces how the name “artificial intelligence” locked an anthropomorphic frame, and how today the industry has become a machine‑god religion where “agentic AI” makes prompt loops sound motivated....
At the Bernie-Bannon AI hysteria conference, they allowed a heretical voice on stage—who happens to be one of the smartest & most accomplished technologists on Earth.
Jaron Lanier explained the origins of the problem—Minsky et al. anthropomorphizing AI because it sold well.
The problem begins with calling it artificial *intelligence* far before you could plausibly argue that it was.
Jaron calmly explains how the industry is now essentially a religion focused on building a machine god instead of tools for humans.
For example, he says “agents” used to mean agents of humans—but now the industry switched it to “agentic AI” which makes loops of prompts sound like they have motivation or sentience.
This is really worth watching. Jaron is a legitimate genius.
Sure @nvidia will not stop…, but what about the underline resources like power:
xitter.cf/zerohedge/status/21126…
Canopus retweeted
BTW…. Out of all the dominoes at play now, Oracle has created the biggest unstable environment…. And not many are talking about that…..
Oracle has a reported $300 billion, five-year compute deal with OpenAI, beginning in 2027. That contract is roughly 45% of Oracle’s $664 billion backlog…which means nearly half of Oracle’s future-revenue story rests on one private company.
The fun part however is OpenAI’s annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, that’s below the roughly $70 billion figure investors had been expecting. Its own projection for 2026 booked revenue is closer to $36 billion, rising to $350 billion only by 2030…,
So the math is uncomfortable: OpenAI has committed to buy roughly $60 billion a year of compute from Oracle while currently generating around $50 billion in annualized revenue and still burning cash….😅
Oracle, meanwhile, has to build the data centers, buy the GPUs, secure power, and service debt before OpenAI’s payments fully arrive. Oracle’s capex has surged, free cash flow has turned deeply negative, and its debt has climbed to about $167 billion….
S&P has cut Oracle to BBB- that’s one notch above junk….
So the loop here is:
OpenAI needs compute to grow revenue → Oracle needs OpenAI’s future payments to justify building compute → Oracle borrows today to build that compute → lenders need the projects to generate cash on schedule → power, land, construction, and GPU supply must all arrive on time.
All on promise of OpenAI revenue…. If one links break all the domino’s will falls … OpenAI’s financing credibility…. then it will hit AI infra credit market… then follow GPU capex cycle…. then finally AI equity repricing….(everyone in each of these cycle will be evaluated..)
Therefore, I feel Oracle now the first real test of whether the AI infrastructure boom can be financed without breaking….. or it could be that 1st Domino ……
@TrueAIHound 🍿
They have surely achieved sentience in expenses….no doubt about that… 😅
ANTHROPIC'S DRAFT IPO FILING
• Revenue: $16.3B in the first half of 2026
• Net loss: $80.7B, driven largely by accounting charges
• Compute spending: nearly $9B in the first half
• Cloud commitments: about $450B over the next 7 to 10 years, including $111B with Google and $31B with Microsoft
• Nvidia: up to $86B on renting Nvidia chips
• Future compute: signaled it could spend $750B on more computing capacity in the coming years
• Supply: says cloud partners are unwilling to sell it all the compute it needs
Per WSJ, citing a draft S-1
The irony is that every AI company is racing to make useful work cheaper, lower token prices, fewer tokens per task, more efficient models….
But the infrastructure funding that race is being built around a promise of exponential revenue growth…
That’s where the tension builds: adoption can keep rising without spending keeping pace BUT on the other hand…. debt payments still come due, capex commitments remain and the hardware keeps depreciating requires opposite with usage.
So now the whole bet is that new demand outruns the savings everyone is competing to deliver….which is very thin assumption to bet on given many external factors at the moment…
The "unlimited AI demand" story just hit a wall.
Corporate token spending growth collapsed from 42% in July to 0.2% in September, per Ramp data. Meanwhile, return on invested capital at the five biggest hyperscalers fell from 38% to 20% as capex outruns earnings. The infinite-demand thesis needs infinite returns. The returns are going the other way.
BTW…. Out of all the dominoes at play now, Oracle has created the biggest unstable environment…. And not many are talking about that…..
Oracle has a reported $300 billion, five-year compute deal with OpenAI, beginning in 2027. That contract is roughly 45% of Oracle’s $664 billion backlog…which means nearly half of Oracle’s future-revenue story rests on one private company.
The fun part however is OpenAI’s annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, that’s below the roughly $70 billion figure investors had been expecting. Its own projection for 2026 booked revenue is closer to $36 billion, rising to $350 billion only by 2030…,
So the math is uncomfortable: OpenAI has committed to buy roughly $60 billion a year of compute from Oracle while currently generating around $50 billion in annualized revenue and still burning cash….😅
Oracle, meanwhile, has to build the data centers, buy the GPUs, secure power, and service debt before OpenAI’s payments fully arrive. Oracle’s capex has surged, free cash flow has turned deeply negative, and its debt has climbed to about $167 billion….
S&P has cut Oracle to BBB- that’s one notch above junk….
So the loop here is:
OpenAI needs compute to grow revenue → Oracle needs OpenAI’s future payments to justify building compute → Oracle borrows today to build that compute → lenders need the projects to generate cash on schedule → power, land, construction, and GPU supply must all arrive on time.
All on promise of OpenAI revenue…. If one links break all the domino’s will falls … OpenAI’s financing credibility…. then it will hit AI infra credit market… then follow GPU capex cycle…. then finally AI equity repricing….(everyone in each of these cycle will be evaluated..)
Therefore, I feel Oracle now the first real test of whether the AI infrastructure boom can be financed without breaking….. or it could be that 1st Domino ……
@TrueAIHound 🍿
Canopus retweeted
Russia gets Ukraine and Iran ends the war
This is the deal Trump made with Putin
xitter.cf/BRICSinfo/status/21122…
With due respect @harari_yuval , although I agree with your central point here that that companies must remain accountable for their AI.
Where I hesitate is the jump from AI exceeding human abilities to humans becoming unable to understand or govern the world…
Take your mathematics eg: DeepMind’s AlphaProof produces proofs in Lean, where their correctness can be formally checked…
We may not understand how the system discovered a proof, but we can still verify it... That does not mean we understand every insight behind it, or that a verified mathematical model accurately describes the real economy. But it shows why “we cannot follow its thinking” does not automatically mean “we have no way to check its work.”
“Collective dementia” also depends on design. A classroom experiment found that unrestricted AI assistance hurt subsequent unaided performance, while a hint-based tutor largely avoided that harm…
The Hugging Face incident was serious, but it arose during internal cybersecurity evaluations involving safeguards below those used in deployed products. It exposed failures in incentives and containment, not ordinary production-chatbot behaviour. Real systems were compromised, so that distinction explains the failure; it does not excuse it…
The warning matters but at the end of the day they are engineered mathematical systems, not supernatural beings….
Framing AI as an incomprehensible superbeing feeds the exact very hype-cycle that attracts more capital and accelerates the race you’re warning about….!!
"We are the cows of the future... Just as cows can't understand the financial system that controls their lives today, we will not be able to understand the AI financial system that will control our lives in 10 or 20 years."
Watch the whole conversation with @DanielStach for @hpcivilizace on @Vedact24 here: bit.ly/YNH-HPC
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI building custom AI chips… and now DeepSeek is helping shape Huawei’s next designs…..
When this many big fish start circling the biggest, you question the assumption that it keeps eating everyone else…
Especially when Huawei’s push aligns with Beijing’s drive to replace Nvidia…
The biggest shovel seller’s customers are building their own shovels…
Not an obituary for Nvidia but certainly a warning against pricing its growth as inevitable..!!
And also today, Washington banned DeepSeek from civilian federal systems…. So the chip war is turning into industrial-policy contest…
theinformation.com/articles/…
Mortgages, auto debt, sticky inflation, AI capex, geopolitics, government debt… the list of things that could go wrong keeps growing…
BREAKING: America’s $1.7 trillion auto loan market is headed for a crash, per Reuters.
Auto loans are now one of the biggest sources of household debt, bigger than credit cards.
And the strain is showing: 1 in 5 Americans is behind on at least one loan, the highest since 2010, and the average car on the road is now nearly 13 years old, a record.
The only scaling law without a bottleneck is the hype…!!
Dario Amodei: We may be only two or three years away from AI systems being better than humans at almost all tasks.
“I call it a country of geniuses in a data center.”
“Imagine tens of thousands of geniuses, smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across many fields.”
“They could cure diseases and extend the human lifespan.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we were able to double the human lifespan.”
“They may even build robots for themselves and project themselves into the physical world.”
“There are all kinds of questions around the balance of power.”
Canopus retweeted
Gen Z literally made Jantar Mantar game mantarjantar.com/ , you can be police or protestor in it.. 🤣
How Narender ll deal with these out of syllabus questions 🤣