lol This last FOMC meeting was the most heavy handed forward guidance in years, which is why volatility fell in recent weeks.
For all those lost souls in the Fedwatching business who have been complaining about how a lack of forward guidance will create excessive market volatility, yesterday was a rude awakening. The Fed reaction function could not have been clearer. And the market moves could not have been more subdued: the 10yr and the S&P500 have barely budged.
Tim Duy retweeted
“accessibility" is the side they want to be on & closes off critique in academia.”
I heard a local community organizer (who’s gotten involved with the efforts to save the Tompkins bars) say almost the exact same thing with respect to local government debates.
Everyone needs a black cat! He was just sitting here waiting for someone to turn on the fire to help him celebrate his day!
Not finished yet, but retrofitted a cabinet previous owner installed in kid’s bedroom to a cabinet on top with four drawers on the bottom, a more practical use of the bottom cabinet. Will take it apart for final finishing. Walnut.
Tim Duy retweeted
It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative.
If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.
Tim Duy retweeted
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.
Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.
Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.
Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
Tim Duy retweeted
At the risk of angering a few folks, I vehemently disagree about the old rules not applying in this economy. When my career began I had no idea where it would or could go.
I was curious & rigorously continued my education to improve my skills. Be agile & solve problems.
1/n
Most career advice comes from an economy that no longer exists. So what still works? What should people DO?
These are the questions behind my new show, Best of Luck! Every week, I sit down with people who have built careers that have gone sideways, forwards, backwards, and forwards again. Each guest tells their story, swaps career advice, interviews for a job (!), and together, we try to understand the economy we're actually living AND working in.
Tim Duy retweeted
It’s hard to put into words, this unspeakable tragedy, a few blocks away, where our kids went, my wife has taught, our literal community. My heart is broken, for the loss of life, those fighting to live, the survivors, the heros who prevented something worse, all the families
Tim Duy retweeted
The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.
Tim Duy retweeted
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized how the central bank communicates. He’s finding out firsthand why it’s so hard.
politico.com/newsletters/mor…
Tim Duy retweeted
🧵The literature concerning why a constant money stock would pose problems is vast, with contributions from economists from numerous schools, including Hayek among other Austrians and sympathetic fellow travelers like the great Leland Yeager.
Tim Duy retweeted
Kevin Warsh’s job just got a lot harder.
My article, which secretly has a Philadelphia dateline
politico.com/news/2026/10/09…
Which is another way to say that the Fed isn't anticipated to do enough to meaningfully slow economic activity.
Narrator: The benefits won’t be distributed anywhere near equally.
Tim Duy retweeted
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed.
But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data.
Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds
“First, let’s try restarting your computer.”
