TimOnPoint retweeted

TimOnPoint@TimOnPoint12h
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No, The New Kalashnikov Is Not a Weapon – A rebuttal to Gerald Mako's @smallwars opinion.
Cheap commercial drones fitted with readily available guidance software have collapsed the cost of precision strikes. Ukraine has demonstrated the method at scale: mass-produced frames, improvised warheads, and increasingly autonomous terminal guidance have given states and non-state actors capabilities once reserved for conventional military forces. The warfare equation has changed. That much is not disputed.
What does not logically follow is the policy package offered to reverse it.
Gerald Mako's argument for tighter controls on hardware that enables onboard autonomy, enforceable obligations on manufacturers whose platforms are routinely militarized, and a minilateral coalition of component producers treats the commercial dual-use ecosystem as if it were a controllable arsenal. It absolutely is not. The systems in question began as hobby, racing, photography, and agricultural products and became weapons only after conversion. The proposed remedies – manufacturer due diligence, conversion-resistant firmware, and supply denial of enabling components – do not survive contact with how these systems are actually built and fielded.
The AK-47 analogy fails as an analogy. The Kalashnikov was purpose-designed as a military weapon and then deliberately proliferated as a geopolitical instrument: cheap, rugged, and simple to operate by design. Small UAVs and FPV platforms followed the opposite path. They began as commercial products before being adapted, often in small shops and wartime factories, into delivery vehicles. The distinction is acknowledged in passing and then ignored. A weapon that begins as a weapon can be regulated as one. A commercial airframe that becomes a weapon only after a user straps on a warhead or swaps the flight controller presents a fundamentally different regulatory problem.
Imposing strict due-diligence duties, secure-boot mandates, and market-access conditions on commercial manufacturers because downstream actors convert their products is the gun-control argument applied to dual-use electronics. A manufacturer cannot reasonably be held responsible for every illicit modification any more than a tire company can be held liable for a drunk-driving manslaughter. The article concedes that no firm can be responsible for every conversion, then recommends treating refusal to adopt “reasonable” anti-militarization features as grounds for exclusion from Western markets. That substitutes upstream obligations for downstream enforcement. Such measures may deter some casual misuse and impose compliance costs. They will not stop a knowledgeable bad guy.
The practical failures are straightforward. Software is already open and mirrored. Jailbreaks, forks, and companion computers have been routine in the hobby community for years and are now industrialized. Physical conversion does not require defeating firmware. A warhead and basic fuze can be zip-tied or strapped to a commercial platform. Motors, props, batteries, and boards can be stripped from a “conversion-resistant” airframe and reused on an open stack. Middle markets and gray-market channels for commodity components persist as a structural feature of global trade, not a temporary loophole. These realities make conversion resistance a weak foundation for policy.
Local fabrication has already collapsed the premise that the original commercial stack is an indispensable chokepoint. Ukraine’s wartime industry is the existence proof. Firms there now machine motor housings, wind stators, fabricate or assemble flight controllers, ESCs, and initiation boards, and produce frames and props at meaningful volume. Localization of 70–90 percent or more is documented across multiple producers, with isolated examples of near-full domestic component sets for FPV systems. Residual dependencies remain – high-grade magnets, battery cells at volume, certain specialized sensors, higher-end edge chips – but they are narrower than a comprehensive supply-denial regime assumes. Once process knowledge and modest equipment exist, a determined actor does not need the original manufacturer for an effective short-to-medium-range system. Targeting commercial makers or the commodity layer cannot be the primary line of effort.
The coherent response is therefore actor-centric. If the concern is bad actors using drones, policy should target those actors and the systems they field. That means intelligence and interdiction against the specific groups, workshops, conversion networks, and deployment chains that assemble, arm, and employ them. It means layered detection and defeat once the systems are in the air. It means narrow restrictions only where they can be tied to identified diversion networks and the few high-end items that still materially improve particular programs. It does not mean spreading friction across legitimate commercial markets, component producers, and software repositories in the hope of raising costs for actors who have already demonstrated their ability to substitute and fabricate around those frictions.
Two clocks are running, but not the clocks described. One is the conversion cycle on commercial frames. The other is the localization and substitution cycle that has already outpaced upstream controls. Geneva processes and minilateral component coalitions will not stop what small shops and motivated actors can already build. The practical task is to target the people who turn available technology into weapons, not the manufacturers and markets that produce the technology.
Replying to @smallwars
TimOnPoint retweeted
US Flag rank officers are professionally ill suited to address the video below.
Living 30(+) years inside "cost plus Big/Expensive/Few" means "mass produced Small/Cheap/Many" is outside their professional career frame of reference.
Careerism means they deny this reality.🙄⬇️
TimOnPoint retweeted
Get in, homies.
We’re AUTOWARing.
AUTOWAR25 Afternoon Edition, Wednesday, Oct. 21. The top 25 autonomous-warfare stories, ranked. 🧵
Project Agincourt's leaders lay out the road to a four-star Autonomous Warfare Command by Oct. 1, 2027, and DIU says Gauntlet II drone orders are moving, with Perennial Autonomy and Neros each getting the maximum 8,000-drone first order. The Army's CTO says its drone marketplace has topped $800 million, and the toll from the drone strike on Abyei's Amiet market stands at 153.
TimOnPoint retweeted

TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 18
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The OODA Loop is real. Respect to Colonel John Boyd.
Ukraine is a continuous military learning cycle:
Observe the battlefield.
Identify a problem.
Develop an adaptation.
Employ it.
Observe the enemy response.
Adapt again.
Technology accelerates the cycle. Organizations determine whether battlefield learning becomes combat power.
📖Read "The Ukraine Laboratory: How a Full-Spectrum War Is Rewriting Modern Warfighting," a #SWJEssay
👤By Dr. Tahir Azad
TimOnPoint retweeted

TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 18
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bloodthirsty fascist with a bob
bloodthirsty fascist with a bob
bloodthirsty fascist with a bob
bloodthirsty fascist with a bob
TimOnPoint retweeted
We simply have to stop appointing bishops whose ability to manage exceeds their desire to.
The Francis Papacy in particular has been dominated by choices of bishops who are perfect reflections of the failed 1980s version of American Catholicism.
There is not one intelligent person who would spend time in any Diocese, look over the landscape and think to themselves “You know what we really need to do? Ban the Saint Michael prayer after mass.”
Final note on this topic:
Not two months ago a left-wing publication put out an article about why we shouldn’t pray that Saint Michael prayer after mass.
If you do not think this is a coordinated effort, you haven’t been paying attention.
Our local bishop is banning the St Michael prayer from the end of Mass.
His article, in the local Catholic paper, explains that in order to celebrate the liturgy “in accordance with the mind of the Church” priests need to “catechize the people of God as we move away from additional prayers recited together immediately before, during, and immediately after Mass.”
TimOnPoint retweeted

TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 17
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What? We’re still doing this?
JUST IN: There’s reports circulating that one or two women are currently in BUD/S at Coronado, training alongside the usual classes of male candidates for a shot at the SEAL Trident.
There are also reports of Admirals observing training early in Class 379, and they may be pushing for the women to move past 1st Phase.
Since combat roles opened to women in 2016, a small number of female candidates have entered the pipeline or related screening, but none have ever completed BUD/S plus SEAL Qualification Training and earned the Trident.
Every known attempt has ended in voluntary withdrawal, medical issues, or performance based attrition under the same uncompromising standards applied to everyone.
BUD/S remains one of the highest attrition courses in the military, with typically 70%+ of all starters gone before graduation.
So if the reports are accurate, these candidates are facing the identical physical and mental demands that have stopped every woman who has tried so far, with no public confirmation yet from Naval Special Warfare.
TimOnPoint retweeted

TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 16
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Price, Visser, and Carter's The Brigade and the Multidomain Breach raises an important question about restoring maneuver on a battlefield increasingly dominated by sensors, unmanned systems, and precision fires. The perspective I'm focussed on is what happens before we commit the mechanized force.
For the last century, artillery, airpower, and armor have helped create the conditions for maneuver. That requirement remains. But autonomous systems may allow us to shift much of the initial battlefield preparation to an attritable force operating ahead of soldiers and expensive, specialized equipment.
The mechanized force remains essential. The opportunity is to preserve its combat power, improve the conditions under which it fights, and give commanders more options about when (minutes, hours, weeks) and where to commit it.
Three architectural requirements:
1. Sequencing: Computational processing and its effectors move ahead of the main force, executing bounded, preauthorized operational logic at electronic speed.
2. Attritability: The leading force consists largely of expendable or attritable systems. Its design assumes losses while preserving the economic advantage of mass.
3. Continuity: Forward compute maintains operational state and reorders authorized actions as circumstances change, rather than requiring headquarters to manage every transition.
This extends the familiar logic of combined arms. Human commanders retain authority, establish intent, and determine acceptable risk. But the computational architecture and its attritable systems can carry more of the preparatory process forward.
*The real opportunity may be to realize more of the mechanized force's potential by changing what goes ahead of it.
Brigade maneuver is made all but impossible by enemy reconnaissance-fires complexes. The solution? The mutlidomain breach. Here's what it looks like. mwi.westpoint.edu/the-brigad…
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TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 15
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Attritable means attritable. Think bullets, not guns.
• 2-10m of each common type in stabilized storage, depending on use volume
• First in - First out inventory control that allows continuous upgrades to happen
• Deep storage for standardized battery types
• Distributed, 10x surge capacity across all component types
• Redundant, rapid assembly shops across the United States (receive, assemble, bench test, box and ship)
I've pitched how to make the last two bullet points happen with little risk – 24 months of work – won't cost billions of dollars either. Haven't made it past the career gatekeepers yet. Will keep trying.
We need to make industry crash 100,000 drones next year breakingdefense.com/2026/10/…
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TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 15
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More autonomous mass doesn’t relieve human task volume. It’s quite the contrary. I’m not sure the DoW has realized this yet. There’s a solution — many of you are not going to like it.
TimOnPoint@TimOnPointSep 6United States
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The most consequential scarcity in future military operations will be human cognitive capacity.
* near future
TimOnPoint retweeted
I remember watching my first drone swarm demonstration in the early 2000s and thinking we had better get serious about developing these capabilities and defending against them. Here we are, a quarter of a century later, and we’re still having the same conversations. Ukraine has demonstrated what can be accomplished with relatively inexpensive systems produced at scale, while we continue investing enormous resources in increasingly sophisticated, extraordinarily expensive platforms. I’m not suggesting we don’t need strategic bombers. We do. But another bomber isn’t going to defend an American airbase, power grid, or community against hundreds of inexpensive drones. Where is the corresponding urgency to develop, manufacture, and field affordable defensive systems in sufficient numbers? We keep talking about the next generation of warfare while struggling to protect ourselves against the one that’s already here. My concern isn’t simply how we fight overseas. It’s how we protect our own people at home.
TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 14United States
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There’s a lot of strategy to consider here. Bottom line is that a manned Russian attack helicopter paid the ultimate price for the privilege of launching a single missile.
This will be one of the first use cases to fully automate. Launched effects will be fielded soon also.
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TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 9
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Remember this term, "unbroken evolutionary pressure."
TimOnPoint@TimOnPointOct 8United States
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A Modest Proposal for Project Agincourt – Non-Resetting Opposition Force
Key phrase: unbroken evolutionary pressure
Battlefield adaptation in autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and low-cost munitions now occurs in weeks. The American military is adapting aggressively, but its training, acquisition, and force-development systems still operate through distinct cycles. Combat training centers expose units to demanding opposition, experimentation organizations develop and evaluate new technologies, and acquisition programs move successful designs toward operational use. Each performs an essential function. Project Agincourt creates an opportunity to bring those functions into a continuous contest in which the adversary never stops evolving.
Preparedness and readiness are related but different conditions. Preparedness describes a force manned, equipped, and trained against established requirements. Readiness must also include the ability to generate effective capability when those requirements no longer describe the threat. The National Training Center and Joint Readiness Training Center have become increasingly sophisticated in their use of autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and adaptive opposing forces. Their rotational structure, however, necessarily returns the training environment to prepared conditions. The opposition retains institutional knowledge, but its accumulated technical and tactical adaptations do not necessarily confront the next unit. The exercise ends, the scenario is restored, and the next formation enters a problem whose boundaries have been established in advance.
The September 30, 2026, Project Agincourt memorandum directs the creation of a pathway to an Autonomous Warfare Command and calls for equipment and force designs to be tested "with realistic opposition in demanding exercises and rugged environments, modify rapidly, and field what works." Its larger ambition is a repeatable acquisition system whose principal output is the ability to adapt in combat rather than any particular unmanned platform. Meeting that requirement demands more than shortening procurement timelines or increasing the frequency of exercises. It requires unbroken evolutionary pressure, sustained competition in which each adaptation changes the conditions confronting the next force, and the process of developing and fielding effective counters becomes inseparable from operations.
A permanent, non-resetting opposition force would provide that pressure. Its defining characteristic would be the retention of operational and technical state between engagements. Equipment modifications, software updates, electronic-warfare configurations, tactics, and the results of previous encounters would remain in effect when the next unit arrived. An effective counter developed by one formation would force the opposition to change; the succeeding formation would confront that change rather than a restored version of the original threat. Over successive engagements, the adversary would become the accumulated product of the units that had fought it. The competition would continue across training audiences, with each unit entering a fight already in progress.
Located on the edge of a large military reservation with access to suitable ground, air, and even relevant maritime operating areas, the opposition force would combine a standing combat organization with engineers, software developers, and technical specialists capable of rapidly modifying and re-fielding systems. Its two standing tasks would be to:
1) develop an increasingly capable adversary and
2) oppose operational units moving through their pre-deployment preparation.
A unit might defeat an unmanned reconnaissance system through electronic attack, only to find that subsequent versions employ altered navigation logic, communications behavior, or tactics. The opposition would face the same obligation to respond to successful counters. Neither side could assume that a solution effective in one engagement would remain effective in the next.
This structure would create two important conditions for adaptation. First, it would continually expand the range of responses both sides must develop as successful tactics and technologies lose their advantage. Second, it would compress the interval between recognizing a problem and fielding a response, because modifications would occur within the continuing contest rather than await the design of another exercise. Engineers and operators would work together against immediate operational demands, testing changes through employment and refining them in response to observed performance. Evaluation would shift toward the speed and effectiveness of adaptation under opposition. The resulting record of successes, failures, and subsequent modifications would support decisions about which systems and methods deserve wider adoption.
The opposition force should also develop future commanders. Leadership assignments should be filled by officers preparing for subsequent operational command, giving them sustained responsibility for building an adversary that learns, searches for vulnerabilities, and changes its methods as the competition develops. They would gain experience thinking through an enemy's decisions rather than merely responding to a prescribed threat. That experience would return to the warfighting force when those officers assumed their next commands. The arrangement would also preserve the proper institutional relationship. The opposition needs freedom to develop an uncompromising adversary, but it exists to serve the warfighting commands by producing better prepared units, more capable systems, and leaders who understand how an enemy thinks and evolves.
For that competition to produce capability beyond the training area, the organization would require authorities that permit rapid modification and re-fielding, access to representative contested-spectrum conditions, and a direct path for successful adaptations to reach operational units. Project Agincourt anticipates much of this requirement by directing operators, innovators, and manufacturers to work together while pushing decisions and resources toward operational forces. The opposition force would give that arrangement a persistent operational setting. Its measures of effectiveness should include the time between identifying a vulnerability and fielding a counter, the performance of that counter against subsequent adaptations, and the rate at which useful results enter Service formations. An evolutionary process confined to the reservation would be an incomplete success; the capabilities it produces must reach the forces responsible for fighting.
The concept would require substantial technical support, dedicated resources, and carefully established authorities governing safety, spectrum use, classification, and experimentation. They are matters of organizational design rather than reasons to interrupt the evolutionary process. Nor would a permanent opposition force replace existing combat training centers or their responsibility to evaluate units against established operational requirements. It would add a different function to the enterprise: a persistent adversarial environment in which training, experimentation, acquisition, and operational adaptation become parts of the same process. Units would still demonstrate proficiency in known tasks, but they would also confront the need to develop new capabilities when familiar methods no longer worked.
Project Agincourt offers the organizational opportunity to make this form of competition permanent. The Autonomous Warfare Command would have a standing environment in which systems and force designs could be tested, modified, and returned to the fight under conditions shaped by earlier engagements. The warfighting commands would receive not only the resulting technologies and tactics but also officers who had spent time directing an adaptive adversary. The enterprise would gain a mechanism for making continuous adaptation part of force generation rather than an activity conducted between periods of operational employment.
Unbroken evolutionary pressure is the mechanism that keeps a force adapting when the battlefield changes in weeks. A permanent opposition force that never resets is the organizational form that sustains it. Together, they would turn Project Agincourt's mandate to modify rapidly and field what works into a continuous operational practice, making the capacity to generate new capability under opposition a defining measure of military readiness.
TimOnPoint retweeted
When the Interceptors Run Out: The Limits of Technological Superiority
Supersonic Redhead | October 11, 2026
TimOnPoint retweeted
This is the FlyDubai copilot’s tweet
Notice the phenomenon where he becomes MORE religious and clings harder to his identity in the West than when he is back home.
It totally undercuts multiculturalism’s core premise - that exposure and coexistence will soften rather than harden incompatible group identities.
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇺🇦🇹🇼@DrewPavlouOct 10Australia
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Australia radicalised the Omani hijacker, we are COOKED bro
TimOnPoint retweeted
Government.
Parkinson’s Law – Why the State Bureaucracy Grows When the Work Shrinks
In 1955, a British naval historian wrote a joke for The Economist. Seventy years later, it remains one of the most accurate descriptions of the modern state ever written. Everyone knows the slogan: work expands to fill the time available. Almost no one knows the mechanism underneath it. That mechanism explains Europe.
1. The evidence. Between 1914 and 1928, the Royal Navy lost two thirds of its largest warships. Over the same years the Admiralty – the office that ran the ships – grew by three quarters. There were fewer ships and more men behind desks. Then there was the Colonial Office, which kept growing while the colonies left one by one. It was hiring while the empire was shrinking.
2. The first mechanism. An official who feels overworked has three choices. He can resign, he can share the work with a colleague, or he can ask for two subordinates. He never chooses the colleague, because a colleague is a rival. Two subordinates are a rank. So one tired man becomes three. Then each of the two subordinates feels tired.
3. The second mechanism. Seven people now do what one did, and they keep each other busy with drafts, approvals, and comments on the approvals. Everyone works hard, and nothing is produced. You have been in this meeting. You have been copied on this email. You have watched three people sign the form that one person filled in.
4. The law of triviality. Parkinson noticed that a committee will approve a nuclear reactor in minutes, because nobody understands it. The same committee will debate the bicycle shed for an hour, because everybody does. Bureaucracy does not avoid the important question by accident. It avoids it by design – the small question carries no risk, and on the big one, someone’s name goes on the decision.
5. The ratchet. A business that fails closes. A department that fails gets a bigger budget, because the problem is now bigger. Failure is the bureaucracy’s best argument for itself. This is why the state never shrinks on its own: every problem it does not solve becomes a new office for solving it.
6. The civilizational lesson. Burnham described the managers taking over. Parkinson showed how they breed. Put the two together and you get Brussels. You get France, where the state spends more than half of everything the country produces and still cannot fix a hospital. This is not because the people inside are wicked. It is because the machine works exactly as Parkinson said it would.
7. The vindication. Parkinson was dismissed as a humorist. Then Milei cut Argentina’s ministries in half – and the country did not collapse. It barely noticed, except on the bill. The lesson is simple: you cannot reform a bureaucracy by asking it what to cut. It will always propose to cut the ships – and hire someone to manage the cut.
TimOnPoint retweeted
𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗔𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘁 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝘂𝘀𝗲
We need radical candor today or we repeating history’s costliest mistake just like they did with Billy Mitchell.
A century ago Mitchell was court-martialed for pushing naval aviation as the major change that would redefine war. He told the truth: future battles would be decided by a new geometry of battle, and clinging to battleship-centric thinking was suicidal. Senior leaders preferred the comfort of yesterday’s platforms and known TTPs. Today the same refusal continues.
Russian bloggers now claim outright that the United States has not fully embraced the UAS and autonomous battlefield because we equate drones with attrition warfare and still prefer the fantasy of quick, decisive war. That is a misreading of the change in character. The autonomous battlefield is already here, more lethal, deeper, and changing faster than the linear fights we still train for. Maneuver forces must acknowledge it and adapt faster. Unmanned systems impose the attrition and set the conditions. Mobile protected firepower enables maneuvers and is decisive. Many nations can field drones. The advantage is adapting under realistic opposition on the right side of the cost exchange at a rate the enemy cannot match.
Project Agincourt and AUTOWARCOM will drive the change that some have been hesitant to enable outside of their own rice bowl.
The memo is clear: test equipment and force designs with realistic opposition in demanding exercises, modify rapidly, and field what works. Honest OPFOR that exposes Gaps. Industry in the dirt. TTPs and technology developed simultaneously under unbroken evolutionary pressure; not sequential bureaucratic processes. The opposition does not reset. That is how we create and maintain decisive advantage.
Mitchell was right then. The truth-tellers demanding we face the autonomous reality are right now. We must integrate mobile protected firepower with the unmanned systems that set the conditions and train as the next war actually demands. Or another generation pays in blood for our refusal to evolve.
Billy Mitchell didn’t go quietly. Neither should we. This we will Defend.
🤖 Made with AI
TimOnPoint retweeted
The NFA is dead.
Holy shit.
LEGAL ALERT: The ATF has issued an open letter with guidance regarding the NFA ruling. You can read it here: atf.gov/media/30961/download
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George Alexopoulos@GPrime85Oct 9
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TimOnPoint retweeted
To secure The Republic in case of this type of event, we MUST move back to IN PERSON VOTING on PAPER BALLOTS.















































