Building @TimeToCompute — mapping the AI buildout & surrounding news 📰⚡️ & https://teapawt.org/t.co/10IIWFG3nN - Helping you buy better 💸
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Joined September 2025
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🚨Fellow traders/investors:
$IREN $NBIS $CIFR $NVDA $GOOG
This week has been brutal.
It’s one of those days where looking at charts is totally going to ruin your mood for the weekend. 📉📈🤯
As a counter measure and a distraction, I’m intending to switch on the Xbox & play the Gears Of War - E day campaign. 🎮🕹️
If you feel like blasting a weekend of Gears, snacks & laughs instead of obsessing over charts, then I have three spots available.
All you need is:
Gears of War (Xbox or PC)
Microphone
Starting in 1 hour when I get back from the snack run. If you’re interested drop your gamertag 👇 🫡
T2C retweeted
🚨 BINANCE HACK UPDATE
Attackers reportedly used a jailbroken version of Claude in an alleged attempt to exploit Binance. 🤯
AI is becoming powerful enough to uncover vulnerabilities that have gone unnoticed for years.
The scary part? This could be just the beginning.
The same technology that helps defend systems can also be weaponized against them.
⚠️ The cybersecurity game is changing FAST.
T2C retweeted
Fluidstack rents capacity from $IREN. It is one of their customers. It is now raising money at a $40B valuation.
IREN owns the buildings and the power. The whole company is worth $10.8B.
$IREN is my number 3 holding. This is why. Not for this quarter. For the next 10 to 20 years.
We bought the dip, it dug a mine,
We said, “Fuck me.” Then, “This is fine.”
The Lambo dream became a bus,
Our broker sends his thoughts to us.
Those diamond hands, that iron grip,
Twenty-five thousand bags of “buy the dip.”
May rockets fly and shorts get wrecked,
We’ve paid enough for character development, I suspect.
$IREN
I asked for gains, quick and bright,
A rocket climb, a burst of light.
I found $IREN and liked the play,
I bought my shares and dreamed they'd pay.
From fifty down to twenty-three,
The market laughed and mocked at me.
Each dip arrived, I bought some more,
Then watched it fall beneath the floor.
Twenty-five thousand shares still intact,
I never sold. Imagine that.
I asked for gains, a glorious flight,
The market said: "Not yet. Good night."
But storms must end, and light remains,
I held through pain, now bring the gains.
$IREN
Well, that looks familiar..
A few days ago I was pitching $IREN as an AI factory operator: package the expertise, deploy the stack, run the cloud.
Now this. Not the full third-party ownership model I imagined, but the building blocks.
Apparently my brainstorming had good timing.
Hey @danroberts0101, I like this.
$IREN
With sovereign AI top of mind at #NVIDIAGTC Berlin and IREN’s European footprint expanding, our team demonstrated the seamless pathway from GPU capacity to sovereign tokens on in-region infrastructure.
Explore early demo highlights of IREN AI Cloud, currently in development, powered by the k0rdent control plane and NVIDIA DSX OS recipes to deliver:
- Automated, managed cluster provisioning
- Private model serving & secure API token generation
- Full-stack observability
T2C retweeted
Market is so focused on every single headline and number, it is shocking…
I believe that the AI bubble burst will be caused primarily by the fact that 99% of people have no idea what they actually own. I don’t blame them as AI is basically a combination of extremely difficult physical engineering and leveraging what we knew from machine and deep learning.
Being able to understand both the physical part of the AI buildout and the intelligence part is almost impossible for people with no background. I took several classes at my university (mainly ML and DL) connected to the intelligence part and I still had to learn in the last 2 years more about the rest than I ever imagined.
The physical (infrastructure) part is still complicated for me. I have researched Nvidia a lot back in 2021/2022, so that makes it a lot easier, but the pace at which the physical layer is evolving is hard to keep up without engineering background. Every single piece of news forces me to do a lot of research and it is exhausting sometimes, not gonna lie.
What I want to say, is that I am heavily focused on AI and all its subsets for several years now and I am still learning. Meanwhile, we have the median age of accredited investor in the US around 50. I don’t mean to be rude, but these people have no idea about what it takes to be successful in AI market. They don’t understand the technology and what is required for it…
This is why they had (many of them still have) so much trouble understanding the absurd amount of CapEx that is being spent. It also causes every single headline to make them sell or buy several stocks because both they and their clients have no idea what they own.
Happy times to hold $NBIS, $IREN and listen to them saying that these companies have no MOAT…
I can confirm what Michael is saying.
I’m under NDA, however my employer is the largest defence company in the world - we currently only have a 2022 LLM chatbot.
Long $IREN $NBIS $CRWV
If this past week in AI stocks has left you staring at your portfolio wondering whether retirement now means “stop working at 94”… you’re not alone.
I’m feeling it too. My $IREN position has provided considerably more character development than I requested.
Behind every red number is money someone worked for. Overtime. Savings. Plans. Watching that shrink hurts, even when your investment horizon is years.
But here’s why I’m still bullish on where this is going.
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL provide the cloud platforms, distribution and customer relationships that bring AI into everyday business. $META brings it into products used around the world.
$IREN $NBIS $CRWV are building and operating the specialist computing capacity that helps make those ambitions possible.
Different businesses, different risks, connected by something physical: AI needs chips, electricity, cooling, networking and somewhere to run.
The opportunity stretches beyond chatbots. Better tools for researchers. Faster software development. More capable assistants. Businesses getting work done that previously cost too much or took too long.
None of that runs on a compelling PowerPoint. Unfortunately, neither does my pension.
Imagine that future without the infrastructure these companies provide: less available compute, slower deployment, fewer businesses able to participate, and more potential left on the drawing board.
Could other companies replace individual players? Absolutely. No ticker is indispensable.
Do I think the world collectively decides it has enough computing power and stops pursuing these capabilities? That looks much less likely to me.
That’s the distinction behind my optimism. The need can keep growing even while the market argues fiercely about who will profit from meeting it.
And yes, opportunity cost is real. Money tied up here could have earned interest, grown elsewhere or simply bought a quieter week. The time spent checking the chart isn’t free either.
But opportunity cost runs both ways. Sitting out a transformation that succeeds can also mean missing substantial gains.
That doesn’t make every dip a bargain, or holding forever a strategy. AI can succeed while an individual investment disappoints. Financing, execution, valuation and what remains for shareholders still matter.
For me, believing in this future means accepting uncertainty while continuing to check whether the business is earning that belief.
I’m experiencing the downside alongside plenty of you. I still want a share of the upside if these companies deliver.
Ideally before I’m 100, or die from a stroke due to abnormally high blood pressure
Keep it steady bro’s, we will make it out the trenches.. sooner or later. 🫡
T2C retweeted
9. The next 12-18 months are all about execution, and the delay chatter was constant. 3 sites commissioning between now and year end, 4,000+ people on the ground. We're in the spotlight, and it's delivery time.
Hey @IREN_Ltd / @danroberts0101, we haven’t heard from you for a minute. Any sneak peaks of what we should expect in next weeks earnings call? $IREN
T2C retweeted
Barclays raises Microsoft $MSFT's price target to $610 from $600, maintaining Overweight.
Azure is approaching 50% growth even at its massive scale, with delayed capacity deliveries potentially supporting further growth in H2.
More importantly, the analyst points to Microsoft 365 commercial cloud accelerating to 19% adjusted growth in constant currency, a higher-margin business that adds to Microsoft's profitability.
He calls MSFT the “best of both worlds: better growth from AI but without the high debt burden risk.”
He also notes that Microsoft expects to remain free cash flow positive and believes shares are still under-owned among long-only investors.
T2C retweeted
$MSFT: Who Third Party Delays
The Neocloud news today was $MSFT's capex miss & CY outlook cut ~$175B to $170B attributed to third party GPU-as-a-service delays.
Number Sense
Respect Dave here, but $IREN alone cannot be responsible for 5B cut. IREN's 9.7B contract is only 1.94B a year and that only fully counts towards MSFT Capex if all tranches were expected to be billing at from Jan 1, 2026 which is not the case at all.
If MSFT expected take deliveries from June to Dec, average delivery time is Aug/Sept so the billed amount is 1/4 of the 1.94B ARR in CY 2026. That's 500m Capex and the shortfall was 5B, a 10x difference.
If we take delivery schedule of June-Dec then Aug/Sept is the average billing start means a CY 2026 5B Capex miss is 20B ARR. If take an average of Jan-Dec deliveries, then June is the average biling start and a 5B Capex miss is 10B ARR.
Over a 5-year contract that's 50B-100B. That's bigger than $IREN, $NBIS, and Nscale's 2026 responsibilities combined. As we will see most of NScale's commitments are for 2027+.
Who Is It
If you have sense of numbers you will realize a insight: if $NBIS, $IREN, Nscale, all delivered on Dec 31, 2026, technically no one would miss and MSFT would have almost 0 Capex from these 3. That's obviously not the case but I'm illustrating that the Capex miss may not be attributed to a complete miss but also a combination deliveries back weighted towards end of the year.
In fact, these three combined cannot make up a 5B Capex or 10B-20B ARR shortfall in 2026. This magnitude of a miss means that MSFT has more third party bare metal suppliers besides these three. I keep saying there's some sh** Neocloud we haven't heard of.
Nscale Situation
NScale is confirmed 6 months delayed at Glomfjord (1) but that's only 30MW max = 300m ARR = 75m 2026 Capex. Nscale scratched their UK datacenter completely but it doesn't seem any meaningful amount was scheduled for 2026 anyways. @SMASIMHO says that SIN02 is a culprit at 200MW (3) but that's only 2B ARR = 500m CY 2026 Capex for average delivery tranche Aug/Sept.
We see that Nscale has some definitely misses but alone cannot doesn't make up the 5B shortfall.
IREN Situation
IREN has delivered H1 for 500M ARR delivered in mid August that's only ~187.5m billed in 2026 for H1. After acceptance, IREN’s fees are “non-refundable, non-cancellable” through 2031 (4). H1 will be billing and count towards MSFT Capex and networking change will be done in maintence windows..
H2 was expected Oct and a complete miss in 2026 would only cut 125m Capex from MSFT.
I expect H3-H4 will be delivered in Dec. H2 is likely the biggest risk for IREN as it was midway between old and new topology and if anything new needs to be ordered then Jan delivery is possible. Not saying that's the case but calling out what's possible.
Yes there's a clause that says MSFT has right to refuse H3-H4 is H2 isn't delivered but fact is that MAI is desperate for capacity right now and will take whatever is up. If they don't accept H3-H4, they cannot use it either.
NBIS Situation
From the site design submitted to Vineland local government, NBIS is to build out 16 blocks of BE Fuel Cells. BE Fuel Cells are likely all on site and ready to go but the main time is building out the electrical aggregation and natural gas piping.
None of the 2 or 3 story platforms even started from a recent picture in Sept and that's 12/16 of the blocks.
Pros is that temporary generators provide 123MW of the 300MW. On Oct 22, BE announced that the site had 100MW but only the first block was delivering power to the DC. Assuming NBIS builds out the 4 blocks without the platforms up this year, that's 123+80MW=203MW which is only a 100MW miss.
That NBIS alone doesn't make a 5B capex miss either.
Conclusion
It's clear that combining Nscale's big misses, IREN's zero to small miss, and possible NBIS medium sized missed cannot explain 5B CY 2026 shortfall in MSFT. MSFT must have other bare metal providers outside of these 3.
The signal in this is that alot of sh** Neoclouds are missing for MSFT in 2026. In 2027, we will see more misses as the added center capacity to double from 2026.
Any Neocloud who can put capacity up will have negotation power because alot of sh** Neoclouds will miss. Nscale isn't even the worst and will miss a sh** load in 2027 too.
Capital Management 101:
$GOOGL and $MSFT don’t have to fund and own every piece of infrastructure themselves. Buying compute from third parties can spread payments over time and preserve cash while their own capacity is being built.
The trade-off is potentially lower margins in exchange for less upfront capital and faster access to capacity.
