Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him
Joined April 2022
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What to expect on Election Night: Central Count Edition
While we don't know who will win or by how much, there are some things we can easily predict about Election Night. Since the conspiracy theorists love to talk about scary Milwaukee vote dumps late at night as evidence of
Nothing official from @cityofmadison (yet?) but the statewide system is updated.
Looks like about 45k requests in the system, so almost certainly lower than yesterday.
3,180 in Madison, so looks like they probably beat Milwaukee for a second day in a row, but not by much.
behind.
In terms of size, MKE/Dane was 28% of yesterday and 31% of today, RoS was 30% yesterday and 28% today, WOW was 19% both days, BOW went from 12% to 11%, Racine/Kenosha stayed at 7%, La Crosse/Eau Claire stayed at 4%, BAD counties stayed at less than 1%, and the Brewers
SD9 does not have a Democratic candidate, but if the GOP is worried about their candidate vs an independent in this seat they must have some truly dire internals.
Also interesting- Republicans don't want to admit that Tiffany has voted 100% of the time with Trump. For all the bluster, they know the President is an anchor on their political fortunes right now
Tiffany is seen as supporting Trump in Congress almost always by 49%, with 38% saying he supported Trump most of the time. 32% of Republicans say Tiffany has almost always supported Trump, compared to 49% of independents and 66% of Democrats. #mulawpoll
This is crucial. A majority of independents saw through Tiffany's plan to try and buy votes with a one-time giveaway that would end up costing families a lot more in the long run
Voters are evenly divided on Tiffany’s plan to return the state budget surplus to taxpayers, or whether to use the surplus to pay for services. Among Repub, 76% favor returning the surplus, while 77% of Dems favor using it for services, as do 58% of independents. #mulawpoll
The fact that Tom Tiffany wasted the immediate post-primary weeks with attacks on data centers... did he not know his own record and how elevating the issue would cost him?
Asked which candidate would do more on each of four issues, Crowley is seen as better on making health care more affordable and improving education, as well as doing a better job on data centers. Tiffany is seen as doing more to reduce taxes. #mulawpoll
I'd call the Senate Likely D at this point and the Assembly is wobbling between tossup and tilt D depending on how the vote ends up distributed
Among likely voters, the legislative vote closely mirrors the vote for governor, with 51% saying they will vote for the Democratic legislative candidate and 44% for the Republican. #mulawpoll
It's where the data and my gut have been pointing. Tiffany has struggled to break 44% all along and he's not running a very effective campaign
New Marquette Law School Poll finds 51% of likely voters supporting Democrat David Crowley for governor, and 44% supporting Republican Tom Tiffany, with 4% undecided. #mulawpoll
So Crowley outraised Tiffany 5:1 because no real people are actually excited about Tom Tiffany
Wis guv fundraising #s:
@DavidCCrowley $15.5 million w/ $9.9M from @WisDems, which got $5.5M from Reid Hoffman.
@TomTiffanyWI $10.1M w/ $9M from @WisGOP, $3.5M in-kind donations after party got $13M from Diane Hendricks.
See more in today's AM Update:
pro.stateaffairs.com/wi/am-u…
Incidentally, I found myself driving through a slice of Wauwatosa today, down Wisconsin avenue from around 90th to the freeway (GPS didn't want me to get on the freeway north of the stadium for some odd reason 🤔) and my youngest was counting yard signs. It was literally 31-0 for