Trader (equities, FX, crypto). Behavior specialist. To join Matrix trading community: https://teapawt.org/t.co/gggoC51BqD
Joined July 2019
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tradethematrix.net
Blog content on topic of trading, financial markets and macro.
A good chance this sequence of events follows:
-investigations find tons of irregularities
-election results get invalidated
-mass riots across US
-insurection act gets evoked
If so (some) people will learn for first time that #elections are rigged.
For the truth seekers out there: How do you catch #AI lying and what specifically to focus on?: ---Contradictions.---
When first answer is completely contradicted by answer number 2 thats your go to. And if you keep asking it and every next answer contradicts validity or construct of prior one (each time with added new key focus variable) you are digging into truth hole.
AI almost NEVER admits defeat if you ask it about subjects of government sponsored or rig inc agendas. Never. It is programmed to always find another route of explanation. I have performed by now thousands of promts or subquestions. It just very rarely gives up.
You need high certainty that what you are asking it you are probably right and you have researched it deeply. And then if it keeps contradicting itself in the answers (focus on the details) its likely trying to deceive.
Keep in mind. Most AI code is NOT open source. You have no idea what it is meant to answer truthfully and what subjects not.
Garner is great actress but its very sus they give her roles which promote (and glorify) mass scale thieves (inventing Ana and now this), both of those two real life characters were installed by global rig inc (long story to explain).
So...is there a hidden twist to her? Or maybe its nothing and its just personality fit for such roles. But usually when there is a smoke there is a fire more likely.
If there was internal rig on financing of illegal voters to vote for X side and you wanted to hide the tracks/footprints, an attack as such would be launched.
(Again i am not suggesting either side did it, its the middle man financing both sides more likely).
BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: FEC Gets Hacked, Goes Dark for 41 Hours During Early Voting with No Proof of Containment joehoft.com/breaking-exclusiβ¦
Also if you see this guy outperforming all other funds while everyone is red (like we see many funds lately) thats not a good sign. Last time that happened was 2008 with shitstorm following.
$SPY shorts over past two days. One cut today but the rest of trades delivered decent. Its hindsight now but should have been mixing in some 0DTE puts too.
This would be another better example how to properly structure backtest with meaningful output:
teapawt.org/Valckrie/status/211849β¦
Notice that there is significant cluster of such samples around crisis environment even if there is slight recovery after many of those drops (using my data example on prior post), since equity indexes when they decline they dont go straight down usually its a zig zag motion with fake recovery pullbacks.
Those kind of posts show you many in financial markets dont know how to gather valuable stat data. Poorly structured test gives you noise.
I have rephrased the question that initial poster has made to AI by adding or changing two variables. -1.One is explain the macro context behind situations when there is no reclaim of initial selloff and when there is.
-2.And another variable- instead of looking for what happens the next day after initial selloff we look whether in next 10 trading days the selloff is completely reclaimed. Because if market is still healthy that should happen. And if there are broad macro issues under the hood it wont, it will go down. What initial poster did is useless as data will be close to noise because time interval is too short and has no correlation to macro outlook because of it.
Even the results that were given from my sub question are 50 50. -But here is the catch...what truly matters is knowing the macro environment. Are there bubble deflation characteristics, is there geopolitical friction, is there inflation rising etc.
Its exactly that which then needs to provide decision for discretionary market participant what to make out if this heavy selloff. Because since statistical data is closely positioned to 50 50, our final conclusion is all it matters and is heavily dependent on macro insight.
This is why in my view data or any variable needs an attachment to another (or multiple) variables to have valuable insight. One variable being short term and others long term or one smaller and another bigger. Never isolate just by looking one variable because it will be noise. All single variables can be extremely easily programmed into algos and turned into money makers if there were 80% consistent, but there is a reason why in markets most isolated variables will be near 50 50 distribution.
$QQQ $SPY #trading
Those kind of posts show you many in financial markets dont know how to gather valuable stat data. Poorly structured test gives you noise.
I have rephrased the question that initial poster has made to AI by adding or changing two variables. -1.One is explain the macro context behind situations when there is no reclaim of initial selloff and when there is.
-2.And another variable- instead of looking for what happens the next day after initial selloff we look whether in next 10 trading days the selloff is completely reclaimed. Because if market is still healthy that should happen. And if there are broad macro issues under the hood it wont, it will go down. What initial poster did is useless as data will be close to noise because time interval is too short and has no correlation to macro outlook because of it.
Even the results that were given from my sub question are 50 50. -But here is the catch...what truly matters is knowing the macro environment. Are there bubble deflation characteristics, is there geopolitical friction, is there inflation rising etc.
Its exactly that which then needs to provide decision for discretionary market participant what to make out if this heavy selloff. Because since statistical data is closely positioned to 50 50, our final conclusion is all it matters and is heavily dependent on macro insight.
This is why in my view data or any variable needs an attachment to another (or multiple) variables to have valuable insight. One variable being short term and others long term or one smaller and another bigger. Never isolate just by looking one variable because it will be noise. All single variables can be extremely easily programmed into algos and turned into money makers if there were 80% consistent, but there is a reason why in markets most isolated variables will be near 50 50 distribution.
$QQQ $SPY #trading
Every single day $QQQ dropped 6% or more since its March 1999 inception, 30 total including today, and what happened at the next session's close:
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπ·-πΆπΊ:βββπΌ.πΎπΌ%,βNext day:βββπΈ.π»π»%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπ·-πΆπΌ:βββπΌ.πΎπ½%,βNext day:β+π·πΈ.πΉπ½%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπΊ-π·πΆ:βββπΌ.π·πΆ%,βNext day:βββπΈ.πΉπ½%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπΊ-π·πΊ:βββπΎ.πΌπΌ%,βNext day:β+π·π·.π»π·%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπ»-π·πΆ:βββπ½.πΈπ½%,βNext day:ββ+πΌ.π·π·%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπ»-πΈπΉ:βββπΎ.πΉπ»%,βNext day:ββ+πΌ.πΈπ½%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-πΆπΏ-πΈπ·:βββπ½.πΈπ½%,βNext day:ββ+π».πΏπ·%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-π·π·-πΆπΎ:βββπ½.πΎπΈ%,βNext day:βββπΆ.πΆπΈ%
πΈπΆπΆπΆ-π·πΈ-π·πΏ:βββπ½.πΌπΈ%,βNext day:βββπ».π½πΉ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπ·-πΆπΈ:βββπΎ.πΊπΌ%,βNext day:β+π·πΌ.πΎπΊ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπ·-πΆπ»:βββπ½.πΌπ»%,βNext day:ββ+π·.π·πΆ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΈ-πΈπ½:βββπΌ.πΆπΊ%,βNext day:βββπΉ.π·πΌ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΉ-πΆπΏ:βββπ½.πΆπ·%,βNext day:βββπΌ.πΈπ·%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΉ-π·πΈ:βββπΌ.πΈπ·%,βNext day:ββ+π».πΆπΎ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΉ-πΈπΆ:βββπΌ.π½πΉ%,βNext day:ββββπΆ.πΆπΆ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΉ-πΈπΎ:βββπΎ.πΈπ·%,βNext day:βββπ·.πΎπΏ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΊ-πΆπΉ:βββπ½.πΉπΉ%,βNext day:βββπ·.π½πΌ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΊ-πΈπΉ:βββπΌ.π½π·%,βNext day:βββπ·.πΎπΎ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-πΆπΏ-π·π½:βββπΎ.π»πΆ%,βNext day:βββπΈ.πΈπΊ%
πΈπΆπΆπ·-π·πΆ-π·π½:βββπ½.π·πΎ%,βNext day:ββ+πΈ.π½π·%
πΈπΆπΆπΎ-πΆπΏ-πΈπΏ:βββπ½.πΏπΊ%,βNext day:ββ+πΈ.πΎπΎ%
πΈπΆπΆπΎ-π·πΆ-πΆπ½:βββπΌ.πΉπΊ%,βNext day:βββπΆ.πΎπΆ%
πΈπΆπΆπΎ-π·πΆ-π·π»:βββπΎ.πΏπΌ%,βNext day:ββ+π».πΊπΈ%
πΈπΆπΆπΎ-π·πΈ-πΆπ·:βββπ½.π»πΈ%,βNext day:ββ+πΉ.πΉπΊ%
πΈπΆπ·π·-πΆπΎ-πΆπΎ:βββπΌ.πΆπΈ%,βNext day:ββ+πΊ.πΎπΈ%
πΈπΆπΈπΆ-πΆπΉ-πΆπΏ:βββπΌ.πΏπ»%,βNext day:ββ+π».πΊπ»%
πΈπΆπΈπΆ-πΆπΉ-π·πΈ:βββπΏ.π·π½%,βNext day:ββ+πΎ.πΊπ½%
πΈπΆπΈπΆ-πΆπΉ-π·πΌ:ββπ·π·.πΏπΎ%,βNext day:ββ+π½.π»πΎ%
πΈπΆπΈπ»-πΆπΊ-πΆπΊ:βββπΌ.πΈπ·%,βNext day:ββ+πΆ.πΈπΊ%
πΈπΆπΈπΌ-π·π·-πΆπ»:βββπΌ.πΊπΏ%,βNext day:βββββ???
Summary across all 29 prior instances:
- Full history, 1999 to 2025: 17 green, 1 flat, 11 red. Avg +2.67%, median +2.71%.
- Post-2008, 9 instances: 8/9 green, 89%. Avg +4.16%, median +4.82%.
- Since 2010, 5 instances: 5/5 green, 100%.
The safest mentality to #investing or #trading is always to assume anything can get rugged but especially...if prior to where price is now there was parabolic run.
Parabolic moves just love to rug regardless if its golds market cap size or some smallcap company.
Key tech stocks are down 50% and the guy is calling for bubble pop somewhen in the future π For last few remaining % of declines? Is he locked in the basement with no internet access or...
teapawt.org/jeffhunt/status/211852β¦
Clues are stacking up. This is all intentional btw, planed by global rig inc not Republicans or Democrats themselves. I believe the idea is to create political clash within US via creating obviously planted votes and then a heck of trouble on recount.
teapawt.org/remarks/status/2117737β¦
Those election results are so not gonna be validated. Can easily see through the rig already.
2001 and 2026 #stock #market similarities.
In each case $SPY was quite close to ATH by the time when either dotcom or AI bubble has already burst sending majority of largest companies down 50% or more from the highs.
In each case as well there was disappointing forward guidance earnings data for many companies just like we see currently, or aborted projects (MU etc) and there was quite a spike on bond defaults in 2001 (and we see CDSes for AI companies this time also rapidly increasing in yields signaling defaults).
There are tons of similarities. Are we about to face bear market just like it happened after 2001?
Attached left side on image SPY and right the bubble sector.
Caught a good 5R short on $SPY today. Was bearish on it since 20th October, expecting some turbolence, just thought we would had more explanations when it would start to happen...
