🚨October 25 Midterm Update – 9 Days From Election Day Roughly 26.9 million early ballots have been cast so far. Overall turnout continues to run ahead of the comparable point in 2022, but the composition is still not matching the blue-wave narrative in several key states. 🔴Republicans are meeting or beating expectations: ➡️In Florida, about 2.77 million ballots are in (roughly 1.40 million by mail and 1.38 million in person). Party registration is essentially even at 39.8% Democrat and 39.6% Republican, with independents and others at about 20.6%. In-person voting remains heavily Republican and is accelerating. Republicans are on track to overtake the early-vote lead and finish near or better than their 2024 share. ➡️In Texas, roughly 3.7 million ballots have been cast, mostly in person. Modeled early-vote estimates continue to show Republicans ahead, with solid rural and suburban turnout. ➡️In Arizona, about 884,000 ballots are in (almost entirely mail). Party registration remains essentially even, with Democrats at roughly 39% and Republicans at 38%, and independents accounting for a large share of the returned ballots so far. ➡️In Tennessee, about 760,000 ballots have been cast, mostly in person. No party registration is reported. Strong midterm volume so far, with in-person voting continuing to drive the totals in a state that typically favors Republicans on Election Day. ➡️In Iowa, about 208,000 ballots have been cast. Young-voter share is notably low compared with past cycles (several analysts have flagged that the 18–25 age group is well below 2018 levels). This undercuts Democratic models that rely on elevated youth turnout in the state. 🔵Democratic edges are real but narrower than hoped: ➡️In North Carolina, 1.54 million ballots have been cast, with Democrats at 41%, Republicans at 24%, and other/unaffiliated voters at about 35%. The Democratic lead is still driven by a handful of blue counties, while rural counties remain lighter and are expected to narrow the gap next week. ➡️In Pennsylvania, roughly 721,000 mail ballots have been returned, with Democrats at 67% and Republicans at 24%. The Democratic share remains lower than at the same point in 2022, when Democrats stood at about 73% and Republicans at 19%. This continues to represent roughly a 10-point swing toward the Republicans. ➡️In Virginia, about 1.07 million ballots are in (mostly in-person) and running well ahead of the 2022 pace, though the state does not report party registration. A “blue wave” is expected in Virginia due to disgruntled and recently laid-off federal workers. ➡️In Georgia, about 1.63 million ballots have been cast (roughly 1.55 million in-person). Volume remains ahead of the same point in 2022, driven mostly by in-person voting. Georgia does not register voters by party, so there is no direct partisan breakdown. ➡️In Michigan, about 1.04 million ballots have been cast, almost entirely by mail (statewide in-person early voting only began on October 24). Mail ballot requests are up from the comparable point in 2022, but actual returns remain only modestly higher or flat. Michigan does not register voters by party. High request numbers have not yet translated into a matching surge in completed ballots, leaving the bulk of the vote still ahead. ➡️In Nevada, about 353,000 ballots have been cast. Party registration is competitive so far (roughly D 40% · R 35% · Other ~25%). Democrats hold a modest edge in the early numbers, but it is narrower than many expected in a state where they need strong early performance to offset Election Day. ➡️In Colorado, about 825,000 ballots have been cast (almost entirely mail). Party registration shows Democrats at roughly 33% and Republicans at 25%. The Democratic share is real but not the dominant early lead some forecasts projected for the state. 🔥Also tracking: ➡️In Ohio, about 1.00 million ballots have been cast. No party registration is reported. Volume is solid for this point in the cycle, and remaining Election Day voters have historically leaned more Republican in the state. ➡️In Wisconsin, about 526,000 ballots have been cast (mix of mail and in-person). No party registration. Early volume is running ahead of the comparable point in 2022, but the state has a consistent history of stronger Republican Election Day turnout that has not yet been reflected in the early totals. ➡️In Minnesota, about 419,000 ballots have been cast. No party registration. Volume is moderate for this stage. Remaining Election Day voters have historically been more Republican than the early/mail pool. The bottom line: Early voting is elevated, yet Democrats are not running away with the composition the way many polls and media narratives have suggested. Republicans are stronger in in-person early voting (especially in Florida and Texas), competitive in Arizona and Nevada, and still hold their traditional Election Day advantage in multiple states. Follow: @MorseReport