Nicolas Treich retweeted
Normative Economics and Economic Policy webinar series.
Programme: sites.google.com/view/normat…
For joining details, email [email protected].
Nicolas Treich retweeted
De manière très factuelle :
– Les instances consultatives ministérielles (« comités Théodule » si l’on caricature…) représentaient un coût de ~30 millions d’euros en 2025
– Les pensions de retraite, première dépense publique, représentaient quant à elles 422 milliards d’euros la même année, soit 14 000x plus (!) que les dits « comités Théodule »
Le problème des retraites est dérisoire par rapport au montant des déficits et à l’intégralité des dépenses inutiles.
Il y a aujourd’hui, par exemple, de nombreuses agences et comités Théodule qui dévitalisent le pouvoir politique et qui, au passage, coûtent une fortune.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Les instances consultatives ministérielles (« comités Théodule ») représentaient un coût de ~30 millions d’euros en 2025, tandis que les retraites représentaient 422 milliards d’euros la même année, soit 14 000x plus.
vie-publique.fr/en-bref/303627…
drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/sites/default/… (Page 99)
ifrap.org/fonction-publi…
Nicolas Treich retweeted
In just four years ChatGPT reached a billion weekly users. That's crazy fast! Facebook took 8.5 years to reach that milestone. Source: buff.ly/nqAiwM3
Nicolas Treich retweeted
How has global poverty changed in our lifetimes?
No matter what poverty line you choose, the share below it has declined globally.
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Job market candidates in labor: we invite you to join the Labor Hub, create a profile and post your JM paper! You need the endorsement of your advisor, that’s all. laborhub.ilr.cornell.edu
Big announcement to the Labor Econ Community: We have created the "Labor Hub" - a platform to exchange relevant info (events, jobs, visits, SI, papers...) - Apply to become a member! Job market candidates especially encouraged to apply! Link: laborhub.ilr.cornell.edu/ Please share!
Nicolas Treich retweeted
The economist job market is up and running! Last year the economics job market was the toughest in recent memory, as JOE listings were down 20%. This was below even Covid levels.
A bit of good news for PhD economists this year in that I am noticing some green shoots in my discussions with employers! And, in the data, we have a bit of good news as well: JOE listings are up 5.5% over this time last year (see below).
Under the hood is where it gets interesting, however:
**Full-time US academic jobs: +14.4%. Liberal arts colleges +16.1%, universities with graduate programs +13.8%. The segment that took the biggest hit last year is leading the recovery.
**Full-time academic jobs outside the US: -12%. The rebound so far seems to be a domestic story.
**Nonacademic jobs: +7.5% overall. Yet, this hides a ton of heterogeneity. Consulting/research +21.6%, Banking/finance/industry -25%, US federal government: -44.4%. A side note is that for my entire career, the federal agencies were a stabilizer of this market, the last few years we have seen this buffer disappear.
At this point, a candidate might ask: how should I respond to all this news? Considering the data and my chats with people around several markets, I would still turn to the science. Back when I was on the market it was difficult too (at least for me…I had 1 interview from 150 applications!). The next year we studied the search market (paper downloadable here: ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura…).
We compared a boom market to a bust market through the lens of optimal search across multiple markets. Candidates adjust on two margins: which markets they enter, and how many applications they send into each. In busts, we found graduates of elite programs broadened their search down the academic ladder, graduates of lower-ranked programs shifted toward the business sector, and employers everywhere raised their hiring standards.
So far the data in 2026-27 is neither a boom nor the bust in our paper, it is both at once. Today academia is loosening while government has effectively closed and finance has tightened. Even with those changes, my advice is no different than it was back then: adjust both margins. This means that you should re-enter markets you may have written off. This is because the academic window is wider than many feared, especially at liberal arts colleges. In addition, perhaps redirect applications from DC toward consulting.
In the end, the deepest lesson for me remains: there is no “the market,” we live in the world of “many markets.” Treat this like a portfolio problem, and thus the key question of the day is “how are YOUR markets doing?”
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Sans même tenir compte des dégradations matérielles, ce weekend aura coûté au contribuable français environ 3 milliards *par an*, à perpétuité, en intérêts supplémentaires sur la dette (11bp de spread).
L'équivalent du salaire d'environ 60 000 profs de lycée supplémentaires.
This happens in my university and I fully agree with the analysis here:
Why are French university students lining up for lunch at 11am when the cafeteria opens at noon?
I took this picture on my way to work this morning because it is a good lesson in “shadow prices.”
In May, France extended €1 university meals to all students. Previously, those not eligible for assistance paid €3.30.
The result was not cheaper meals, but shortages.
Demand surged, and students now queue an hour or more in advance to secure their lunch. What they used to pay with money, they now pay with time.
And this is a lesson in shadow prices. It tells us that students are willing to sacrifice an additional hour to save €2.30, so they are implicitly valuing their time at €2.30 an hour or less.
That's awful. 11 am is one of the best times to study. You are alert, but not yet tired. Even if a fraction of them studied at this time, there could be more value than the one saved by the “cheaper” meal.
While the government did provide €50 million in additional funding for 2026, for a system serving more than 3 million higher-education students (about 8 cents per student per day), the problem illustrates something deeper about France.
Don't get me wrong. I love living here, and I work hard every day to contribute to this country. But too many French institutions operate as though people's time were free.
It is a system where enormous resources flow through the state, and simple transactions are replaced by forms, permissions, and waiting. People grow accustomed to this dependency, sometimes even demanding more of it.
The implicit message of the system is that your time is cheap, your initiative is unwelcome, and your ability to decide for yourself is something to be managed.
It is a sad situation because I genuinely believe France can be one of the best places in the world to live.
But people are tired. And I'm not talking about those who looted sporting goods stores and vandalized public buildings over the weekend. I'm talking about the butchers, bakers, and produce sellers I meet every week at the market. The small antique dealers who worry that a mob could destroy the little capital they have. I talked to many of them yesterday. They are scared and they know there is nothing for them to do other than hide.
A country that values its people should value their time.
Vive la France!
Nicolas Treich retweeted
On AI in economics, from r/academiceconomics (mostly grad students and early career)
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Surtout les primes d'assurance vont continuer à progresser à chaque émeute.
Cela se traduira petit à petit par une hausse croissante du coût de tenir un commerce dans un centre ville. Cela affecte la viabilité de ce modèle par rapport à Amazon ou autres plateformes.
« Ce n’est que du matériel, ils ont juste à faire jouer les assurances, pas de quoi en faire un drame. »
Il faut n’avoir absolument aucune conscience de ce qu’est être commerçant ou entrepreneur pour dire un truc pareil.
Voir son outil de travail partir en fumée, c’est traumatisant. Voir ses économies investies dans un commerce qui met parfois des années à rapporter un maigre salaire, c’est violent. Beaucoup ont en plus été frappés, blessés, humiliés.
Les assurances ? Si les petits commerces arrivent à se faire rembourser une partie des pertes, ce sera déjà une victoire. Elles ne couvriront pas tout, si elles couvrent quelque chose, et ce sera un enfer administratif et judiciaire pour beaucoup de victimes, ajoutant au traumatisme.
Ce n’est pas « que du matériel ». Ce sont des vies brisées, des violences physiques et psychologiques, qui auront des conséquences.
Rien ne justifie cela. Aucun motif politique. Il n’y en a pas, ce sont juste des pillages, tout le monde le sait. Ceux qui essayent de minorer ou de justifier cette violence (qui touche d’ailleurs des gens souvent modestes, dont la vie va être encore plus difficile désormais) s’en rendent complices.
Sylvia Serfaty parle, pour les mathématiques, de trois phases face à l’IA : le déni, la consternation, puis l’adaptation. Certains en sont encore à la première apparemment. Et, bien sûr, c'est encore une histoire de "techno-capitalisme"
Wow, que c'est clair et bien dit :
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Très content de voir ma tribune, cosignée avec Tom Bry-Chevalier, publiée aujourd'hui dans Les Échos.
On y revient sur l'histoire et les idées de l'altruisme efficace (AE), un mouvement que le gouvernement des États-Unis a identifié comme un nouvel ennemi de l’intérieur. 🧵
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Carl Schmitt and Moral Time Travel, with applause to @StephenESachs (This was both interesting and painful to write.)
casssunstein.substack.com/p/…
Do you work on animal welfare economics or a related topic? Submit your work here, or just come along!
tse-fr.eu/animal-welfare-eco…
Félicitons les boomers qui restent lucides (et ne sont pas aveuglés par leur petit intérêt personnel) :
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Big announcement to the Labor Econ Community: We have created the "Labor Hub" - a platform to exchange relevant info (events, jobs, visits, SI, papers...) - Apply to become a member! Job market candidates especially encouraged to apply! Link: laborhub.ilr.cornell.edu/ Please share!
Nicolas Treich retweeted
J'ai demandé à Opus de faire un résumé de cette affaire sur la base de diverses sources, dont la petite partie qui y est consacrée dans mon livre de janvier prochain.
Nicolas Treich retweeted
Bravo à @sc_cath et @Beaufretjpascal
qui ont œuvré sans relâche pour faire la lumière sur le rôle primordial des contributions d’équilibre au système par répartition dans la dérive du budget de l’Etat, et à @Amiel_David_ (et @WeilEric!) pour cet exercice de transparence, enfin.



























