20+ years Buy & Sell side. Macro trends. Not investment advice.

New York, NY
Joined January 2012
COMMODITIES DURING -SPANISH FLU/WW1 -GREAT DEPRESSION -WW2 -70s OIL CRISIS -GFC 👇👇👇
85
623
46
2,140
ASSET CLASS RETURNS OF STAGFLATION 70s
30
220
43
670
Win Smart, CFA retweeted
Simon was just found dead.
I am the British whistleblower who reported evidence concerning Howard Lutnick, his links to Jeffrey Epstein, and Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC to the FBI in 2020–21. Listen to the BBC File on 4 documentary about my whistleblower story: bbc.com/audio/play/m002yx47 BBC News: bbc.com/news/articles/c9q28d… I later shared evidence with the House Oversight Committee, which subsequently questioned Lutnick behind closed doors. My disclosures also contributed to regulatory action in the US and UK, including a £96m HMRC tax assessment relating to BGC’s partnership scheme. I believe the true tax exposure is substantially higher. I also reported to the FBI and financial regulators matters involving Cantor Fitzgerald’s Relief Fund and BGC/Cantor’s annual 9/11 Charity Day. The personal consequences of whistleblowing, and the retaliation I say followed, have been devastating for my family and me. Mother Jones previously reported that documents I uncovered revealed a years-long business tie between Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald and Jeffrey Epstein through AdFin, including a 2018 exchange in which Lutnick and Epstein discussed the company directly: motherjones.com/politics/202… motherjones.com/politics/202… Follow me here on X and on LinkedIn. I intend to share more of the evidence and the story behind what happened.
677
17,633
275
92,272
9,575,588
2yr, 10yr 🎢 & Crude 🛢
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1
9
2,305
BREAKING: President Trump says higher US inflation will "pay off" US debt "very rapidly" in response to total US debt rising above $40 trillion. "I know I'm the best in the world... you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this," Trump said. US Treasury yields hit a new high of the day after the statement.
1,087
1,160
708
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2,599,154
WHEN TO INVEST? 🤔 h/t @BanksterCorp
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HISTORY OF ENERGY
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Area What to watch Current read LEI, new orders, permits, claims, credit, yield curve Cautious, but not recessionary Cyclical conditions ISM, industrial production, employment, consumer spending, credit spreads Still expanding, but slowing Profit-margin momentum Strong
2
5
2,156
Bullish 🐃
I have some bad news for sane people and great news for insane people. The stock market is about to start trading 23 hours a day on weekdays. It's possible we even see 24/7 trading next.
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1
4
2,514
The biggest 🍑🤡 of history
TRUMP ON IRAN: WAR WILL END SOON
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14
3,129
AAII SURVEY: BEARISH SENTIMENT HITS 53.3%, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2025; BULL-BEAR SPREAD WIDENS TO -24.5 POINTS, WIDEST SINCE MAY 2025
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1
2,021
Are the AI companies really going to slow down No—not in any coordinated, industry-wide, or lasting way that meaningfully halts frontier progress. Leading US labs are signaling “pacing” (slower capability jumps so safety testing, monitoring, and alignment can catch up)
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
What happens if you only own the largest company in the S&P 500?
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
If I had invested the money
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3,303
FUTURES 😱
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3,937
Best movie
38%Interstellar
22%Inception
28%No Country for Old Men
12%There will be blood
65 votes • Final results
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3
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
How developed country debt works
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How developed country debt works
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4,201
And that gets back to your 1940s chart: Inflation around 3–4% + nominal GDP growth + strong corporate earnings + Fed that doesn't aggressively tighten = a potentially excellent environment for stocks.
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