Transatlanticist | Deeptech investor | Would much rather be listening to jazz.

Paris...or hopefully on a boat
Joined September 2009
Michael Jackson retweeted
Another thing to understand about Zucman: engaging him is like trying to kick a football through a constantly-moving goalpost that also arbitrarily changes its height and width mid-kick. He and his team at UC-Berkeley churn out a stream of working papers on inequality measurement that bake dozens of dubious assumptions into their data files, all of which "coincidentally" reinforce the headline figures that align with their political narrative. But finding and weeding out those assumptions is an extremely tedious and time-consuming task. Zucman and coauthors Piketty and Saez do most of their work in Excel, and it's seldom ever straightforward. Instead you'll find some extremely questionable and undisclosed multiplier that's just guesstimated out of thin air...but it's buried 10 layers deep in a formula from a convoluted Excel spreadsheet, which changes the an input for another Excel spreadsheet that's used to create a ratio, which in turn goes into a formula on another Excel spreadsheet that's used to estimate a decade of missing data, which in turn alters the trend of their entire series. @VincentGeloso and I know this well because we've been scrutinizing their work for over a decade and have found dozens of examples of this sort of stuff. But there's another twist to the PSZ universe: once you've done the work and found a problem in their data files that alters their main results in significant ways, they've already moved on to a "new" approach that conveniently hard-bakes all the faulty assumptions of the old approach into its source data while refusing to revisit them, and then layers them over with new paint, consisting of even more of the same style of Excel spreadsheet labyrinths that you now have to navigate to even figure out what they are doing. And what they do in their data files often diverges in substantial ways from how they describe it in their papers and descriptive appendixes. While you're toiling away to figure out what they did in their last peer reviewed paper, they call up a friendly reporter at the NY Times and get him to publish a new non-peer reviewed statistical claim that grabs headlines and aligns with whatever wealth tax initiative they happen to be activisting for at the moment. By the end, the goalpost has hopped around the field, changed its size and height multiple times, and been replaced by a new goalpost on the other end of the field that announces itself not through the referees of the field but via some sportscaster up in the broadcast booth who also happens to be openly cheering for their team.
Here's the best way to understand what Gabriel Zucman is up to on the California billionaire tax, and why it's a problem: Suppose you were tasked with assembling a complex historical time series of an important economic indicator, but also suppose the data needed to build it is of widely varying quality. There are gaps in some years when components you need simply weren't measured. In other years the stats you do have are not as reliable. Or maybe the source changed the way it recorded things, or changed the underlying definition. And on top of all that, your indicator contains components that are simply hard to measure with any precision. So what do you do? You'll inevitably have to make some discretionary calls on how to handle the challenges you encounter. Zucman's inequality stats all face this problem. They draw on data that are often incomplete, and go back almost a century in some cases. Reliability varies, as do underlying sampling techniques that generated them. There are also gaps from things that aren't easily measured where you have to make a defensible judgement call on how to handle it. And each and every one of those calls affects your end results. A rigorous researcher's judgement calls would follow certain defensible principles or rules that were clearly articulated and replicable. The effects of those calls would also distribute in different directions. Some would increase the final output number, others would decrease it. In Zucman's work, we typically find the opposite. He makes judgement calls out of necessity, but they almost always go in the same direction, which is to show (a) rising inequality and (b) declining tax burdens on the rich. They always skew in a nonrandom direction, and that direction conveniently aligns with the political story he's telling about inequality and wealth taxes. Or think of it this way: if you're assembling a century-long measure of income concentration it's quite plausible you may have to make 50 different judgement calls on how to handle gaps and uncertainties in the source data. If 30 of those cause your results to show higher inequality in cumulative, but 20 of those reduce inequality in cumulative, that suggests a fairly even distribution is at play. In Zucman's work (as well as his coauthors Piketty and Saez) though, you'll find situations where 50 out of 50 discretionary calls all happen to cause the headline measure of inequality to increase. That's not random - it means that whenever they must make a choice on how to handle data uncertainty, they choose the path that confirms the political story they wish to tell. And this is why the various Piketty-Saez-Zucman measures of inequality are *always* on the high side compared to alternative measures of the same thing. Overlay that with the fact that all three of them are partisan political activists who advocate for wealth taxes, and you see the problem. Their empirical academic work ends up skewing in favor of their political objective, even though it's masquerading as a data-driven exercise. And that's why their empirical claims should be checked against other sources and heavily discounted when they do not align - which is frequently the case.
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Michael Jackson retweeted
It’s hard to overstate how frustrating France’s economic predicament is, as so much of it stems from a deeply ingrained, self-defeating mindset rooted in misguided economic ideas instilled from an early age. Much of the population sees the economy as a fixed pie, with workers, students, retirees, and every other interest group fighting for a bigger slice. Meanwhile, there is little to no public discussion about how to grow the pie in the first place, even though economic growth would create a virtuous cycle, boosting tax revenues and generating more resources to fund schools, hospitals, and other social programs. The tragedy is that this mindset makes politically untenable what should be relatively straightforward, no-brainer reforms, such as raising the retirement age and making the labor market more flexible.
The second largest trade union in France is calling for a general strike in November. We are broke and yields on French treasury bonds have been steadily rising for months, but they are demanding more spending across the board. I don't think we're going to make it to be honest.
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The Gare du Nord is a shithole. It doesn’t help the @Eurostar that it automatically taints any travel experience.
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Hologen is one of the most interesting and potentially transformative companies in Europe. NVIDIA is, well, NVIDIA. Great to see them partnering. Exciting stuff! More to come I'm sure.
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A major issue with France is its population is economically and financially illiterate, and its education system has been designed to keep them so.
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Michael Jackson retweeted
Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman has now for the third time criticized our research on California’s proposed billionaire tax, claiming we have provided “no answer” to his criticisms. xitter.cf/gabriel_zucman/status/… We have actually already responded twice on this platform, but let’s address his arguments once more in detail, with the hope that third time’s the charm. 1/14
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading. Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway. At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25. The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact. ft.com/content/d66976… nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/… forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
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Very Žižek.
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"If you're above the age of 35, it's unholy and evil, and will surely overturn all existing structures and destroy society." Given our rapidly aging demographics, it's no wonder that there's more animosity than ever towards tech.
Marc Andreessen on the generational divide in how people receive new technology, and why it's "prime time" for 18-year-olds to grab AI and run with it: "Douglas Adams, the guy who wrote Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, had the defining description of how technology is received on a generational level... Any new technology is received three different ways by three different age cohorts." "If you're below the age of 15, it's just the natural way the world works. I've told in other settings the story of introducing my kid to ChatGPT at age seven, 'This is such a big deal because the computer answers questions.' And he's like, 'Duh.'... It's just normal." "If you're between the ages of 15 to 35, it's new, exciting, a hot field, and you might be able to make a career out of it, in which case you want to learn all the new things." "If you're above the age of 35, it's unholy and evil, and will surely overturn all existing structures and destroy society." "I think 18-year-olds right now, I mean, it's prime time to grab these new capabilities and run with them. It's gonna be creation of entirely new fields of entrepreneurship and creativity and art and everything." "The schools are banning AI or having all these controversies with it. But of course, if you're a kid, that just makes it cooler... AI is your like secret superpower that you have to like deviously figure out how to take advantage of." @pmarca @bhorowitz
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Michael Jackson retweeted
John Cowperthwaite did more for human prosperity than any development economist drawing a government salary ever managed, and he did it by refusing to do almost anything at all. As Hong Kong's Financial Secretary from 1961 to 1971, Cowperthwaite ran one of the most radically free economies the modern world has ever seen. He kept taxes flat and low (the top income tax rate sat at 15%), ran consistent budget surpluses, abolished import tariffs, and blocked nearly every subsidy request that crossed his desk. When British civil servants demanded economic statistics to justify intervention, he refused to collect them. Not out of laziness. He genuinely believed that giving planners numbers gave them excuses. The results? In 1960, Hong Kong's per capita income stood at roughly 28% of Britain's. By 1997, Hong Kong had surpassed Britain. That trajectory happened without natural resources, without foreign aid, and without a single five-year plan drafted by well-intentioned economists from Oxford. Hong Kong had a harbor, people willing to work, and a bureaucrat with enough intellectual discipline to keep the state out of their way. Capital flows toward secure property rights and reliable rules, and flees the moment politicians start allocating it. Every industry Beijing picked as a "priority sector" during those same decades burned through subsidies and produced junk. Hong Kong's industries emerged organically, serving real demand, building real wealth. You benefit from this history whether you know it or not, because Hong Kong's success gave the world a controlled experiment that still embarrasses every advocate of managed development. The control group thrived. The planned economies didn't. Cowperthwaite retired to St Andrews, received a knighthood, and gave almost no interviews. That restraint was entirely in character.
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So what are the shopkeepers paying taxes for? Western politicians and bureaucrats have repeatedly broken the social contract with their citizens, but then want more and more taxes.
🔴 EN DIRECT La préfecture de police de Paris invite les commerçants à recourir à des agents privés avant les prochaines manifestations l.bfmtv.com/Y3FV
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Michael Jackson retweeted
Imagine your net worth is $200,000. One day an armed gang comes up to your house and demands $10,000. “Don’t worry!” the leader says. “I’m only going to do this one time. Plus, it’s only 5% of your net worth. What’s the big deal ?” After he leaves, you call the cops, but they aren’t interested in investigating the matter. “What’s the big deal?” they tell you. “After all, it’s only 5% of your net worth!” As you’re preparing to flee the city for a place where you cannot be robbed, Gabriel Zucman appears on your doorstep. “Why are you leaving?” he asks. “Somebody just robbed me and the police aren’t going to do anything. I want to live somewhere I can’t be robbed!” “But sir,” says Mr Zucman, “Have you considered the fact that the man told you it was a one-time tax ? Have you considered that you gain nothing by leaving since the tax is already paid ? There’s no economic reason for you to leave anymore.”
What amazes me is the attitude of so many of the centibillionaires. A 5% tax will not make any difference to the way they live. Their spending may be extravagant, but it is still much less than their (correctly measured) income. They know that, as gifted as some of them indeed are, they have benefited from extreme luck (and the help of the state, and, to speak like an economist, monopoly rents). They know that their effective tax rate is low, relative to what many others pay. They know that extreme inequality is extremely unpopular, and can lead to political unrest, backlash, or worse. They must admit that, morally, it is hard to argue for a society in which some become obscenely wealthy, while so many are poor and see their income stagnate. They typically have not indicated that they are building their wealth to eventually make the world a better place. But they are still willing to fight the tax, spending hundreds of millions in California to avoid paying the tax. Why? They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story. They believe in the slippery slope, and if they do not take a stand on this levy, the government will come back for more. They hate the state and the notion that their money will be misused? Or?
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“They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story.” Olivier apparently isn’t familiar with the concept of private property. Would he be ok letting someone take a property of his, or 5% of his net worth, or valuables from his home in the name of inequality?
What amazes me is the attitude of so many of the centibillionaires. A 5% tax will not make any difference to the way they live. Their spending may be extravagant, but it is still much less than their (correctly measured) income. They know that, as gifted as some of them indeed are, they have benefited from extreme luck (and the help of the state, and, to speak like an economist, monopoly rents). They know that their effective tax rate is low, relative to what many others pay. They know that extreme inequality is extremely unpopular, and can lead to political unrest, backlash, or worse. They must admit that, morally, it is hard to argue for a society in which some become obscenely wealthy, while so many are poor and see their income stagnate. They typically have not indicated that they are building their wealth to eventually make the world a better place. But they are still willing to fight the tax, spending hundreds of millions in California to avoid paying the tax. Why? They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story. They believe in the slippery slope, and if they do not take a stand on this levy, the government will come back for more. They hate the state and the notion that their money will be misused? Or?
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Michael Jackson retweeted
Zucman is considered the most credentialed and elite academic supporting the notion of wealth taxes - the fact that he is outmatched intellectually by the average anon RW poster on here is telling; the socialists vainly try to establish an academic veneer for their schemes but at the end of the day it’s just about resentment and hatred of the successful and well turned out. There’s no genuine policy case for wealth taxes and Zucmans latest beclownment should show how thin the veil is
Replying to @gabriel_zucman
The key problem is this: Why would billionaires permanently leave California in response to a one-time tax owed if they lived there on January 1, 2026? It would only make sense for them to leave if the tax becomes annual. But if the tax becomes annual, it would also generate revenue annually — by virtue of, well, being annual.
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Right now, France has the riots that would accompany fiscal consolidation, but none of the benefits, because it is not actually doing any fiscal consolidation. So give the rioters the thing they think they are rioting against. What are they going to do about it? Riot?
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Michael Jackson retweeted
French yields are blowing up European macro hedge fund carry trades efinancialcareers.co.uk/news…
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The windows are either Saint-Gobain or Riou Glass.
フランス暴動でのルイ・ヴィトン 今までの経験豊富さから対暴動用の強化ガラスを全面に装備していたため、暴徒は突破できずw
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This. Europe pushed post-national policies just as it took in record levels of immigrants, thus leading to these attacks against all that is perceived to be European. And the woman on the left saying the riots had nothing to do with immigrants wants us to disbelieve our own eyes.
My attempt at discussing what has driven violent riots & wanton destruction in France (not without interruption). I was also reacting to unhelpfully labelling Kemi Badenoch's mention of challenges of migration y'day, as a Trump-like dog whistle #PoliticsLive
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Michael Jackson retweeted
🧵In 2019, California billionaire tax crusader Gabriel Zucman made an astonishing claim to the NY Times: billionaires pay a lower avg tax rate than poor people in the US. I noticed something fishy though: Zucman's NYT chart did not match his own published data from a 2018 paper
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