1/ I started mining #Bitcoin in 2011. Back then a block paid 50 $BTC and people laughed at "magic internet money." 3 cycles later, here's what mining taught me 🧵

$RLUSD is a $2.6B stablecoin. $USDT is $182B...about 70x bigger. Ripple never lacked the tech, it lacked a retail shelf. Robinhood is a retail shelf. Does this get RLUSD to $10B in 12 months, or does retail just keep defaulting to USDC? xitter.cf/CoinDesk/status/211514…

$ZEC is running right now...$1,212 at midnight to $1,318 by 11am CT. +8% in under 12 hours. That 11am hour traded $26M on Binance...4x a normal hour. Last week Grayscale's Zcash ETF took in $41M, and the Nov 5 upgrade cuts block times from 75 sec to 25. Next wall is $1,368 from Oct 21. Break it or fade it?

26 companies worth ~$13.9T just objected to OKX and ICE tokenizing their shares. Same week, DTCC's tokenization service could go live on assets from its $114T custody book. Wall Street isn't against tokens...it's against tokens it doesn't control. Does tokenized equity end up issuer-permissioned, or does it route around them?

$BTC in dollars: pinned at $80k, lower highs all month. $BTC in gold: ~20 oz, up 63% from the Mar 1 low of 12.3 oz, with a higher low at 14.2 oz in June. Same coin, two very different charts. A year ago it bought 28.5 oz. Does the gold ratio lead the dollar chart this cycle, or is gold just bleeding faster?

Kraken wants to sell US clients perps on Hyperliquid through its CFTC-regulated Bitnomial. Pending approval, but read that again. Not long ago "offshore perp DEX" was the warning label. Now a US exchange wants to plug into the order book instead of competing with it. If it clears, does $HYPE price it in before the first US volume shows up, or after? xitter.cf/Cointelegraph/status/2…

$BTC closed Sunday at $80,154... lowest daily close since Sep 17. Lower highs all month: $87.2k Oct 2, $84.9k Oct 21. Meanwhile $80k got tagged 3 times since Oct 15 ($79.8k, $79.2k, $79.4k today) and bought every time. Third tap on a floor under lower highs rarely ends well. What daily close flips you bullish, $85k or less?

🚨 Big week ahead, they say. 🚨 Price could go up. Or down. Or just chill sideways while everyone on X posts 47 charts explaining why their version was always the most likely. Truly elite analysis.

Bitcoin miners spent this year pivoting their sites to AI hosting. If the credit behind that trade is drying up, a lot of that power has to go somewhere. Mining since 2011... the power contract was always the real asset, not whoever rents it. Does it flow back into hashing $BTC, or do those sites go dark?

$ETH dropped to $2,282 yesterday, its lowest price since Aug 20. Since the June low it's up 56%, more than $BTC's 40%. But over the past year ETH is down 40% and Bitcoin is down 28%. ETH swings harder in both directions. Does $2,200 hold, or are we heading to $1,900?

gm ☀️ Sunday slow. God is good.

FOMC next Wednesday. Rate decision at 2pm, Powell presser at 2:30. Could bring real volatility across markets...how are you positioning for it?

So @a16z is dropping "crypto" from its flagship fund name...now a16z Frontier, per The Information. $BTC is 35% off ATH and the label goes quiet. Mining since 2011, the loudest exits I've seen came near bottoms. Bottom signal, or is the VC era of crypto over?

$ZEC was $238 a year ago. Now ~$1,242...+421% while $BTC is down 24% over the same stretch. Even 25% off the $1,653 Sep 27 top, it's still 6x the March low. Does the $1,130 area from last week hold again, or does privacy give it back once $BTC bottoms?

$1.07B into spot ETFs this week and $BTC still slid back to the ETF cost basis near $81k. Buyers showed up. Price didn't care. @glassnode flags the mid-$70Ks on a close below. Does the ETF crowd defend their entry, or is $81k where they turn seller?

Gold was $4,093 a year ago. Ran to about $5,500 on Jan 29. Today it's $4,085. Full round trip, -26% from the top...and nobody calls gold dead the way they call $BTC dead at -35%. The $3,930 to $3,990 zone held in November and again in July. Third test holds, or breaks?

Gold was $4,093 a year ago. Ran to about $5,500 on Jan 29. Today it's $4,085. Full round trip, -26% from the top...and nobody calls gold dead the way they call $BTC dead at -35%. The $3,930 to $3,990 zone held in November and again in July. Third test holds, or breaks?

China's CSI 300 is -20% from its June peak...$1.75T gone. Yet the yuan sits near a 4-year high and China was August's biggest identifiable gold buyer per Goldman. Money isn't leaving China, it's leaving Chinese stocks. Does any of it find $BTC this time, or is it gold again?

$XMR at $611, +96% in a year. $BTC is -24% over the same 12 months. Monero went $797 to $292 between Jan 14 and Feb 6...then quietly rebuilt to within 23% of that high. Does $XMR retake $700 before $BTC retakes $100k?

Look Into Bitcoin's head of research: 1% of global capital in $BTC = ~$275k a coin. That's ~$5.5T of market cap vs ~$1.7T at $84.6k today. The math is easy...getting allocators to actually click buy is the hard part. Realistic share by 2030...0.25%, 0.5% or the full 1%?

$BTC is +46% off the Jul 1 low. 2022 had a +46% rally before -78%. 2018 had +96% before -84%. Broke down the whole cycle in a thread...real bottom or relief rally?