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Chart of the week: AI Credit Stress Credit stress is increasingly concentrated among the weakest borrowers rather than spreading across the broader market. Yields on U.S. CCC-rated and lower bonds have risen to around 18%, signalling sharply higher refinancing and default risk for highly leveraged companies. By contrast, investment-grade corporate spreads remain near historical lows at roughly 0.9%, suggesting investors are still comfortable with higher-quality credit. Within AI, the four major cloud providers continue to generate ROIC above their WACC, supporting further capital investment. The current adjustment therefore looks more like a repricing of company-specific credit risk than a systemic retreat from the AI investment cycle. Read more - zurl.co/yj0Xj #CreditMarkets #HighYieldBonds #CCCratedDebt #CreditSpreads #InvestmentGrade #CorporateBonds #CreditRisk #DefaultRisk #RefinancingRisk #ArtificialIntelligence #AICapex #CloudComputing #ROIC #WACC #FixedIncome

Weekly Overview of Government Bonds Australian fixed interest markets extended their consolidation in the week ending 30 October, with longer-dated yields drifting lower while the front end remained anchored. The result was a modest flattening of the yield curve as investors continued to absorb the sharp offshore-driven repricing seen earlier in October. The 3-year government bond yield was unchanged at 4.84%, trading in a narrow range. With the cash rate still at 4.60%, front-end pricing continues to suggest uncertainty over whether the RBA will need to tighten further. Read more details here -lnkd.in/eG-Z7YcS #AustralianBonds #AustralianFixedInterest #FixedIncome #BondMarkets #RBA #InterestRates #GovernmentBonds #YieldCurve #BondYields #BBSW #MoneyMarkets #USMarkets #USTreasuries #AUD #Macroeconomics

Overview of the Australian Government Bond Market Australian fixed interest markets extended their consolidation in the week ending 30 October 2026, with yields drifting lower at the long end while the front remained anchored, continuing the steadying pattern that has characterized the market since the sharp offshore-driven pullback earlier in the month. The result was a modest flattening of the curve, with longer maturities doing most of the work. The 3-year bond yield was unchanged on the week at 4.84%, trading in a tight 4.81% to 4.88% range. With the cash rate still at 4.60%, the front end’s relationship to policy remains little altered, reflecting a market that continues to sit on the fence over further tightening. The 10-year yield fell 7 basis points to 5.13%, within a narrow 5.12% to 5.18% range, while the 30-year eased further, down 11 basis points to close at 5.56%, spanning 5.29% to 5.56%. As the Australian yield chart shows, the 3-to-10-year spread has narrowed again this week as the long end outpaced the steady front end, though the curve’s overall upward slope remains intact. Short-term funding conditions tightened further, with 3-month BBSW rising 6 basis points to 4.90%, within a 4.82% to 4.90% range, extending its steady climb even as bond yields continue to ease. Read more: lnkd.in/gSKMupjM #AustralianFixedIncome #AustralianBonds #BondMarkets #GovernmentBonds #BondYields #InterestRates #RBA #BBSW #USTreasuries #YieldCurve #FixedIncomeMarkets #AustralianDollar #AUD #GlobalMarkets #FinancialMarkets

The RBA has raised the cash rate by 25 bp to 4.85%, its fifth hike this year. The decision wasn’t unanimous: six members supported the move and three opposed it. Key takeaways: 🔹 Domestic focus: The RBA says its hikes target domestic inflation pressures, not oil prices. Rising inflation expectations among households and businesses could make inflation harder to control. 🔹 Inflation outlook: Inflation is forecast to stay elevated through most of 2027 and reach the target range later than expected. 🔹 Economy: Consumer spending and housing prices have weakened, and unemployment is expected to rise. The RBA doesn’t anticipate a recession, but growth may stay sluggish as household incomes come under pressure. 🔹 Wages and fiscal policy: The Governor dismissed wage-price spiral concerns, blaming inflation on excess demand and limited supply. She also reaffirmed the RBA’s independence from government fiscal policy. 🔹 What’s next: Removing the “further tightening” language doesn’t rule out more hikes, the Governor warned, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Watch our full breakdown in the latest Central Bank Watch from Yield Report: yieldreport.com.au/rba-monet… #RBA #ReserveBankOfAustralia #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #CashRate #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #AustralianInflation #RateHike #FixedIncome #BondMarkets #EconomicOutlook #WageGrowth

Weekly Term Deposits Update Over the past week, ending October 30, 2026, the strongest opportunity across the deposit curve remains concentrated around 6 months to 1 year. The standout tenor is 1 year, with an average rate of 4.97%, median 5.23%, and top rates of 5.50% from Bank First, ME Bank and Bank Australia. Newcastle Permanent is no longer near the top, while Greater Bank and Macquarie Bank have moved up to 5.40%. The quartile spread has widened slightly to 0.41% from 0.37%, indicating modest increase in dispersion. For shorter terms, value remains uneven. 1–2-month deposits show stable clustering with quartile spreads at 0.85% and 0.50%, and medians unchanged at 1.40% and 1.65%. Great Southern Bank and in1bank lead at 3.50%–4.00%, but most institutions are materially lower. These terms suit liquidity parking only. The 3–5-month range is steady. The 3-month average is 4.36%, with the median edging up to 4.50% and top rates at 5.25% from RACQ Bank. MyState Bank has lifted its 3-month rate to 5.05% from 4.95%, and Macquarie Bank has moved to 5.10%. At 4 months, the average is 4.23% and the median 4.30%, with top rates at 5.25% from Police Bank. At 5 months, the median holds at 3.75%, and the quartile spread remains at 0.93%. Read more - lnkd.in/dzCPRKig #AustralianDeposits #TermDeposits #FixedIncome #InterestRates #DepositRates #AustralianBanks #SavingsRates #BankingSector #CashManagement #YieldCurve #InvestmentStrategy #PortfolioManagement #JudoBank #RACQBank #FinancialMarkets

Overview of the US Treasuries Market The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time in a month as renewed political and fiscal turmoil in France triggered a global flight to safety. French government bonds sold off sharply amid concerns over the country’s large budget deficit and the risk that higher oil prices could weaken consumption and economic growth. France’s 10-year yield rose as high as 5.142%, its highest level since 2002, while investors shifted toward perceived safe havens including German Bunds and U.S. Treasurys. The move in U.S. bonds was particularly notable because it occurred despite elevated inflation and higher oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 19.3 basis points to 4.952%, its largest one-day decline since March 2023. The two-year yield dropped 18.8 basis points to 4.635%, while the 30-year yield fell 15.1 basis points to 5.286%. Read more: lnkd.in/gHjE2GZ3 #USTreasuries #USBondMarket #BondYields #FlightToSafety #FixedIncome #FrenchBonds #EuropeanMarkets #FiscalPolicy #GlobalEconomy #CreditMarkets #HighYieldBonds #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy

Chart of the week: Anthropic IPO Nears as Q3 Revenue Growth Slows Anthropic is reportedly moving closer to an IPO after a strong but slowing third quarter. Q3 revenue reached a record $16.8 billion, while the company posted a second consecutive profitable quarter and positive operating cash flow. Enterprise net revenue retention reportedly reached 900%, alongside an adjusted gross margin of 85%. Despite these strong metrics, investors were unsettled by the sharp slowdown in quarterly growth, prompting a lower valuation assessment. Anthropic is now targeting a potential IPO around Thanksgiving, possibly as early as the week of November 9, making growth durability the key issue for prospective investors. Read more - zurl.co/yj0Xj #Anthropic #IPO #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #TechIPO #AIInvesting #VentureCapital #TechStocks #StartupValuation #RevenueGrowth #EnterpriseAI #Profitability #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentOutlook #GenerativeAI

Weekly Overview of Government Bonds Australian fixed interest markets were relatively subdued in the week ending 23 October, with yields broadly steady to slightly lower following the sharp rally of the previous week. The market appears to be consolidating rather than extending the recent decline in yields. The 3-year government bond yield slipped 1 basis point to 4.84%, while the 10-year eased 4 basis points to 5.20%. The 30-year yield was broadly unchanged at 5.67%. With the cash rate steady at 4.60%, the front end continues to imply uncertainty over whether further RBA tightening will be required. The yield curve remains positively sloped, with the 3-to-10-year spread broadly stable after narrowing the previous week. Read more details here -yieldreport.com.au/category/… #AustralianBonds #FixedIncome #BondYields #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #BBSW #GovernmentBonds #YieldCurve #USTreasuries #AUDUSD #AustralianDollar #MoneyMarkets #FinancialMarkets #Macroeconomics

Overview of the Australian Government Bond Market Australian fixed interest markets settled into a quiet pattern in the week ending 23 October 2026, with yields broadly steady to marginally lower across the curve following the sharp pullback seen the previous week. Rather than extending that decline, most tenors held close to their recent lows, suggesting the market is pausing to consolidate after offshore bonds drove a significant re-pricing the week before. The 3-year bond yield was little changed, slipping 1 basis point to close at 4.84%, trading in a tight 4.84% to 4.90% range. With the cash rate steady at 4.60%, the front end’s gap to policy remains modest, consistent with a market still undecided on the need for further tightening. The 10-year yield eased 4 basis points to 5.20%, within a 5.20% to 5.27% range, while the 30-year was nearly unchanged, down 1 basis point to close at 5.67%, spanning 5.67% to 5.71%. As the Australian yield chart shows, the 3-to-10-year spread has held roughly steady this week, with the curve’s overall upward slope remaining intact after last week’s narrowing. Short-term funding markets firmed further, with 3-month BBSW rising 6 basis points to 4.84%, within a wider 4.76% to 4.84% range, continuing to drift higher even as bond yields have stabilized. Read more: lnkd.in/gSKMupjM #AustralianBonds #FixedIncome #BondYields #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #BBSW #USTreasuries #USBondMarket #YieldCurve #BondMarket #AUD #CurrencyMarkets #FixedInterest #FinancialMarkets

Australian interest rate market pricing firmed over the week to 23 October 2026, breaking the two-week retracement that had followed the RBA’s late-September hike to 4.60%. Rather than extending the softening seen through early-to-mid October, the 23-Oct curve now sits above both the 16-Oct and 9-Oct readings across almost the entire forecast horizon, suggesting markets are tempering their earlier conviction that the current cash rate marks the definitive peak of this cycle. At the front end, implied rates for October and November 2026 remain closely anchored to the 4.60% cash rate, with the three curves staying tightly bunched at these nearer-dated tenors, confirming that near-term pricing remains settled even as the picture shifts further out. Read more: zurl.co/NAAwU #RBA #AustralianInterestRates #InterestRateMarkets #CashRate #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CPI #RateHikes #InterestRateExpectations #BondMarkets #AustralianEconomy #FixedIncome #YieldCurve