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Australia on Recession Watch as Oil Shock Amplifies IMF Global Warning The International Monetary Fund has warned that escalating Middle East disruptions could trigger the third global recession this century, shaving up to 1.3 percentage points off world growth to just 1.7 per cent in 2026 and pushing the economy perilously close to contraction. While the risk spans Asia-Pacific, Australia faces an outsized threat as the world’s largest per-capita diesel consumer, where higher fuel costs deliver an immediate income squeeze even as export revenues provide partial fiscal relief. Read More - foresight-analytics.com/aust… #Foresightanalytics #AustraliaEconomy #RecessionWatch #OilShock #IMF #GlobalEconomy #Macroeconomics #EconomicOutlook #MarketRisk #EnergyPrices #Inflation

The movements in term deposit rates by major and non-major banks continue to show stability this week. Over the past week, ending April 17, 2026, there were adjustments, with notable consistency across most terms despite some isolated tweaks. Our survey across 42 institutions indicates that the most contested term deposit term remains 1 year, followed by 6 months and 3 months, with sample sizes of 42 each. This week the best rate with a 3-month term was 4.90%, unchanged from last week, with RACQ Bank offering the top rate. The median rate of 4.18% reflects a broad range from 2.25% to 4.90%. Read more - zurl.co/9RnMn #foresightanalytics #FixedIncome #termdeposit #asxbank #asxdata #asxhybrids #InterestRates #weeklymarketinsights #IncomeInvesting #BankingInsights #AustralianBanks #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentInsights #Economy

Weekly overview of the Bond Markets US Treasury yields fell sharply over the week after softer-than-expected January inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates later this year, even as policymakers remain cautious amid a resilient labour market. The January consumer price index showed annual inflation cooling to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, below economists’ expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with forecasts. The data suggested continued gradual disinflation, easing concerns about a renewed inflation spike at the start of 2026. Bond markets reacted positively. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 0.15 percentage point over the week to 4.055%, its lowest level since November. The two-year yield, more sensitive to Fed policy expectations, fell 0.085 percentage point to 3.409%, the lowest since September. Earlier in the week, yields had edged higher ahead of the CPI release as investors braced for potential volatility. Despite the encouraging inflation figures, analysts cautioned that the slowdown may not be sufficient to prompt an immediate rate cut. Recent labour market data showed payrolls rising strongly and unemployment falling, reinforcing the view that the economy remains robust. This resilience gives the Fed room to remain patient, particularly as inflation is still above its 2% target. Attention now shifts to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, due next Friday, alongside the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. February CPI will also be released before the Fed’s next policy meeting, providing additional clarity on whether price pressures are continuing to moderate. In Europe, government bond markets were relatively calm, with tight yield spreads and low volatility. Strategists expect eurozone sovereign spreads to remain compressed amid steady issuance progress and limited political catalysts, though Italy’s upcoming constitutional referendum is being monitored. German 10-year Bund yields are projected to end the first quarter near current levels around 2.75%, with modest upward pressure expected later in the year. #USTreasuries #BondMarkets #InterestRates #InflationData #CPI #CoreInflation #FederalReserve #RateCutExpectations #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #ForesightAnalytics

Weekly overview of the US Equity Markets US stocks closed their worst week since November as mounting fears over artificial intelligence disrupting corporate earnings weighed heavily on investor sentiment, even as softer inflation data revived hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 was little changed on Friday but ended the week down 1.4%, marking its steepest weekly decline in three months and its second consecutive weekly loss. Concerns about AI-driven disruption have rippled across sectors, shifting investor focus from potential winners of the technology boom to companies viewed as vulnerable to revenue pressure. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index managed a modest 0.2% gain on Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%. However, these small advances were not enough to offset broader weekly weakness. Market strategists noted a clear rotation underway. After years of enthusiasm about AI boosting productivity and profitability, particularly among mega-cap technology firms investing heavily in data centres and infrastructure, investors are now increasingly selling stocks perceived as exposed to automation risk. Expedia Group was among the notable decliners, falling on concerns AI could disrupt online travel agencies, despite issuing better-than-expected guidance. The selloff has spread beyond technology to drug distributors, software firms, wealth managers and logistics companies, highlighting how broadly AI concerns are being applied. Analysts described the market as seeking out businesses that could be “disrupt-able,” triggering swift re-pricing across industries. #USEquities #USMarkets #WeeklyMarketUpdate #EquityMarkets #StockMarket #WallStreet #MarketTrends #InvestorSentiment #GlobalMarkets

Weekly overview of the US Equity Markets Global equity markets staged a powerful rebound at the end of a volatile week, with US stocks posting their strongest daily gains since May as investors aggressively bought the dip following a sharp technology-led selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to the landmark 50,000 level for the first time, while the S&P 500 jumped 2% and the Nasdaq 100 rose more than 2%. The rally reflected improving market breadth, with over 400 S&P 500 stocks advancing and the equal-weighted index hitting an all-time high, signalling leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap tech. The rebound followed an emotionally charged selloff earlier in the week, triggered by fears that rapid advances in artificial intelligence—particularly new automation tools from Anthropic—could disrupt software business models and undermine returns on massive AI-related capital expenditure. That rout spilled across software, financial services and asset management stocks. However, strategists widely described the move as a healthy recalibration rather than a sign of fundamental deterioration. Improved consumer sentiment data and still-strong earnings trends helped stabilise risk appetite. Technology stocks led the recovery. Semiconductor shares surged, with a chipmakers’ index up nearly 6%, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reiterated that AI demand remains “incredibly high.” While Amazon fell on plans to invest US$200 billion in AI, investors increasingly viewed the broader capex boom as supportive for suppliers and the wider economy. Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni argued the scale of hyperscaler spending would drive earnings growth across the AI ecosystem and doubted the selloff marked the start of a “tech wreck.” #GlobalMarkets #EquityMarkets #USStocks #MarketRally #BuyTheDip #SP500 #Nasdaq #DowJones #MarketBreadth #ForesightAnalytics

We are pleased to share our latest press release with you below! Foresight Ratings has recently completed a ratings assessment of the Zagga CRED Fund. The fund has been assigned a VERY STRONG investment rating, indicating a strong level of confidence that the fund can deliver a risk-adjusted return in line with its investment objectives. We note that Zagga is a high-quality, institutional-grade investment manager that continues to execute its long-term growth strategy thoughtfully. The Foresight Product Complexity Indicator (PCI), which considers the complexity of an investment product based on 10 risk factors, was assigned as COMPLEX for the Zagga CRED Fund. This rating primarily reflects that the underlying assets require specialist investment skills to acquire, and monitor. In addition, a large proportion of the Trust’s assets are illiquid, and investors should have a good understanding of the investment time horizon as well as the distribution characteristics of this type of fund. The Zagga CRED Fund is a pooled mortgage trust established in January 2024 and managed by Zagga Investments Pty. Ltd. The underlying investments are direct loans secured by registered first mortgages on property development, land development and refinancing of completed stock. The Fund is effectively a floating-rate investment strategy. The Fund sits at the more conservative end of the first-ranked mortgage trust segment. It has a first mortgage secured, senior loan-only mandate. The Manager’s preferred loan profile is for upmarket residential developments in city centres on the Australian eastern seaboard. The borrowers are highly experienced, reputable, and financially strong developers. Most of them are repeat borrowers with long-term relationships. While Zagga was founded in 2017, the key members of the investment team are highly experienced, having been in this sector since before the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Zagga currently has 4 funds operating in the non-bank Australian CRE Debt (ACRED) space and has grown total FUM to $1.1BN as at 31st October 2025. 𝘛𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: foresight-analytics.com/pres… General Disclaimer on Investment Ratings: zurl.co/C2PZ #ForesightRatings #InvestmentRating #PrivateCredit #MortgageFunds #CREDebt #ACRED #AustralianInvestments #FundRatings #RiskAdjustedReturns #ForesightAnalytics

US Labour Market Update: Hiring Slows Further- US employers added just 50,000 jobs in December, well below expectations and capping one of the weakest years for hiring since the global financial crisis, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The result confirms a year-long slowdown characterised by cautious hiring and limited layoffs, with payroll growth revised lower for the previous two months. Despite softer hiring, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, reflecting fewer job losses and a decline in labour force participation rather than stronger demand for workers. Participation slipped to 62.4%, while prime-age participation was steady. The labour market continues to exhibit a “low-hire, low fire” dynamic: businesses are reluctant to expand headcount but are also holding onto staff. Job gains remained concentrated in healthcare and leisure and hospitality, while employment fell in retail, construction and manufacturing. Manufacturing has now recorded eight consecutive months of job losses, underscoring ongoing weakness linked to trade uncertainty and tariffs. Federal government employment also declined sharply over 2025 following workforce cuts, reversing its prior role as a source of job growth. Wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% in December and 3.8% over the year—firm but not inflationary. However, signs of labour market strain are building beneath the surface: long-term unemployment rose by nearly 400,000 over 2025, part-time employment for economic reasons increased sharply, and average weekly hours edged lower. The cooling labour market was a key factor behind the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in late 2025. Even so, traders now expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its January meeting, with policymakers divided over how much further easing is warranted. Click below to read more: foresight-analytics.com/us-l… #USJobs #LaborMarket #EmploymentData #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #JobGrowth #EconomicUpdate #USEconomy #WorkforceTrends #ForesightAnalytics

We are pleased to share our latest press release with you below! Foresight Ratings has recently completed a ratings assessment of the FarmCap Private Credit Agricultural Mortgage Fund (Diversified). The fund has been assigned a STRONG investment rating, indicating a strong level of confidence that the strategy can deliver a risk-adjusted return in line with its investment objectives. The Manager’s resourcing, underwriting, deep industry knowledge and risk management skills are strong, as is their alignment with investor interests. The Foresight Product Complexity Indicator (PCI), which considers the complexity of an investment product based on 10 risk factors, was assigned as COMPLEX for the FarmCap Private Credit Agricultural Mortgage Fund (Diversified). This rating primarily reflects the complex or special situation loans that require extensive due diligence, as well as the illiquid nature of the investments. 𝘛𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: lnkd.in/gFp76CEC 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 lnkd.in/dCXyhqex General Disclaimer on Investment Ratings: zurl.co/C2PZ #ForesightRatings #InvestmentRatings #PrivateCredit #AgriculturalFinance #MortgageFund #AlternativeInvestments #CreditInvesting

Weekly Overview of the US Equities Market: U.S. stocks ended the week near record highs as investors grew increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, reinforcing expectations that easier monetary policy and forthcoming Trump administration tax cuts will revive a slowing economy. Despite lingering concerns around a weakening labour market and uncertainty over tariff policy, markets largely focused on the prospect of renewed stimulus. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, and the Dow added 104 points (0.2%) on Friday, with all three major indices posting weekly gains above 0.3%. Rate-sensitive segments led the advance: the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 3.6%, reflecting strong performance from airlines, trucking and logistics companies, while the Russell 2000 climbed 0.8%, benefiting from lower-rate expectations. Markets assign an 87% probability to a 25 bp cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Investors are also anticipating additional rate cuts in 2026, especially with President Trump expected to name a new Fed Chair early next year—an appointment markets view as potentially more dovish or growth-focused. As Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek noted, “The Fed is the overarching mood controller,” and sentiment is unlikely to shift until the decision is finalised. #USMarkets #StockMarketUpdate #FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCutExpectations #MarketSentiment #EquityMarkets #USEconomy #ForesightAnalytics

Weekly Overview of the US Equities Market Financial markets endured their most turbulent week since April as a combination of renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, regional bank loan losses, and growing unease over artificial intelligence stock valuations disrupted the long period of calm that had buoyed investors. Despite heightened volatility, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.8%, rebounding toward record levels. The week’s anxiety was reflected in a surge of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—which spiked to 28.99, its highest intraday level since April. Investors increasingly bought options tied to extreme VIX jumps, indicating a hedge against deeper market stress. As GammaRoad Capital’s Jordan Rizzuto noted, the growing “laundry list of worries” has created conditions ripe for sustained volatility. The turmoil stemmed from three fronts. First, trade war fears reignited after President Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs in retaliation for China’s rare earth export restrictions, which rattled technology and manufacturing sectors. Second, regional bank losses resurfaced after Zions Bancorp disclosed a major write-down linked to borrower fraud, compounding earlier shocks from First Brands and Tricolour bankruptcies. Finally, doubts about the AI-driven market rally—which had propelled stocks to historic highs—spurred concern that valuations were becoming overstretched. #MarketVolatility #GlobalMarkets #InvestorSentiment #StockMarket #AIStocks #TradeWar #EconomicOutlook #RiskManagement #MarketUpdate #ForesightAnalytics

RBA Assessment of the Economic Crosswinds Monetary Policy Board leaves cash rate unchanged amid persistent inflation concerns and resilient economic activity. The Decision: Patience and Data-Dependence The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board has decided to hold the cash rate target steady at 3.60 per cent, maintaining its cautious stance as economic conditions present a complex picture of resilience and uncertainty. The unanimous decision reflects the Board’s assessment that economic data accumulated since August, combined with forecasts from the previous statement on monetary policy, suggests there is no immediate need for further rate reductions at this juncture. This pause comes after a period of monetary easing earlier in 2025, during which the Board reduced rates in response to moderating inflation and softening labour market conditions. However, recent economic data has prompted the Board to adopt a wait-and-see approach, particularly given signs that inflation in the September quarter may prove higher than previously anticipated. Click below to read more: foresight-analytics.com/rba-… #RBA #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #InflationTrends #AustralianEconomy #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights #CentralBank #InvestorInsights #ForesightAnalytics

Foresight Analytics and LENSELL Partner to Deliver Independent Investment Research and Portfolio Strategies We are delighted to announce the formation of a new partnership between Foresight Analytics and LENSELL, a provider of institutional-grade portfolio analysis and optimisation tools​. The partnership will allow Foresight to offer its users a one-stop platform: from raw data extraction (financial statements) to portfolio & risk analysis, to environmental / sustainability metrics combining Foresight’s deep diligence, risk assessment, ESG & forensic analysis with Lensell’s tools (Diversiview, TableBits, Polairis). By combining their strengths, the two companies will also collaborate on creating sophisticated portfolio strategies that investors can subscribe to via the LENSELL Global Marketplace. This powerful combination directly supports financial professionals and investors committed to disciplined global investing by connecting evidence-based, objective investment research with data-driven analytical and optimisation capabilities. To read the full press release click here: lnkd.in/dGnSskWZ #ForesightAnalytics #Lensell #PartnershipAnnouncement #InvestmentResearch #PortfolioStrategy #RiskAnalytics #WealthManagement #AssetManagement #InstitutionalInvesting #GlobalMarkets

Weekly Overview of the US Equities Market Australian shares endured a sharp mid-week sell-off, wiping $53 billion from the ASX200 in a single session, before staging a modest recovery into Friday. Global equity sentiment also softened as bond market volatility rattled risk appetite. However, strength in gold provided a counterpoint: the precious metal surged to a fresh all-time high above US$3,578 an ounce, up 35% year-to-date, as investors sought safety and anticipated a lower-for-longer U.S. dollar interest rate environment. The Australian dollar edged higher, up 0.12% to 65.45 US cents, supported by Fed-cut expectations that weighed on the greenback. Looking ahead, upcoming U.S. payrolls and inflation data will be pivotal in determining the magnitude of Fed easing, while bond market moves remain central to risk sentiment across equities and commodities. Investor sentiment is being shaped by a complex mix of fiscal concerns, looming U.S. monetary policy shifts, and global bond market turmoil. Central to this is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 15 days, even as inflation risks resurface from recently imposed tariffs. Markets worry that easing policy into rising price pressures could destabilize financial conditions further. Adding to U.S. concerns, a recent court ruling rejecting Trump’s tariff regime has unsettled bond traders. If the U.S. Supreme Court upholds the decision, it could undermine government revenues and worsen the already fragile fiscal outlook. Trump has vowed to seek an expedited ruling. These developments amplified a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields higher as investors reassess both inflation and debt sustainability risks. #ASX200 #GlobalMarkets #BondMarkets #MarketVolatility #InvestorSentiment #Gold #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Commodities #EconomicOutlook