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Joined November 2024
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NFL 🏈 Lock #2 (Nov. 5th)
Mark Andrews o 2.5 Receptions
(-132 FD)
❤️ if you’re tailing!!
Andrews has 29 catches on 41 targets through eight games, about 3.6 per game, and he’s caught 71% of his targets. He opened with 10 catches on 13 targets in the first two games and had five catches against Tennessee. Last week he caught 3 of 4 targets against Buffalo, even though Lamar Jackson left after one snap and the Ravens used three quarterbacks.
The quarterback change helps a short-catch prop. Rookie Joe Fagnano is starting, and his passing yards line has dropped to 157.5, which points to a quick, short passing game. That’s Andrews’ role. He has an 18.3% target share and a 20.5% first-read share, and he still led all Ravens tight ends with 29 snaps last week.
Game script should add volume. Jacksonville has a strong defense that just forced three turnovers against the Colts, and Baltimore is likely to be trailing. The concern is the low passing total and Andrews’ six straight games under 30 yards. But this is a receptions prop, and short throws to a veteran tight end are the easiest completions a rookie quarterback can make.
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NFL 🏈 Lock #1 (Nov. 5th)
Trevor Lawrence o 1.5 Pass TDs
(-130 FD)
❤️ if you’re tailing!!!
Lawrence has thrown two or more touchdown passes in five of seven games, and he has seven over his last two. He threw two at Philadelphia on 24-of-39 passing for 331 yards, then three on just 14 attempts against the Colts last week, going 10 of 14 for 210 yards while sitting out the fourth quarter. On the season he has 17 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 112.6 passer rating, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.
He’s also been making big plays. Against Indianapolis, he averaged a career-high 15.0 yards per attempt and threw all three touchdowns against zone coverage, going 7 of 9 for 167 yards. Baltimore’s defense has allowed a 95.2 passer rating and 22 total touchdowns this season.
The biggest edge is on the other side of the ball. Baltimore appears to be down to its third-string quarterback, and starter Joe Fagnano posted a 40.0 rating last week, so Jacksonville should get plenty of possessions and short fields. The concern is a blowout where the Jaguars run the ball, with Tuten coming off 159 scrimmage yards. But Lawrence threw three touchdowns on 14 attempts in last week’s blowout.
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LeBron James o 5.5 Rebounds ✅
❤️ If You Tailed!!!
NBA🏀 Lock #3 (Nov. 4th)
Lebron James o 5.5 Rebounds
(-150 FD)
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
LeBron is averaging 7.0 rebounds through six games in Philadelphia and has cleared 5.5 in four of them. He's posted 9 in his Sixers debut, 10 against Cleveland, 9 more against the Knicks and 7 against Chicago on Monday, including the game-sealing putback in Friday's win over New York. That's above the 6.1 he averaged across 60 games with the Lakers last season, and he's playing 33-plus minutes a night.
Detroit is without Jalen Duren, its starting center and top rebounder, who is out with a hamstring strain. Isaiah Joe is also out. That leaves the Pistons relying on Paul Reed (6.7 RPG) to handle the glass. With Duren out, there are more defensive rebounds available for a 6-foot-9 forward who's been crashing the boards hard all season.
The game script helps too. The total is just 217.5, one of the lowest on the board, which points to a grind-it-out game with lots of missed shots. Detroit is only a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite, so LeBron should play his normal minutes in a close game. The concern is that he had just 2 rebounds against this same Pistons team last month. But that looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his season, and he's grabbed 7 or more in three of his four games since. 6+ rebounds is a number I'm comfortable backing.
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