Investing for RSI @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/NPWFvYwIGi. Advising @ProsperaGlobal. Uneducated. Godmode (first AI agent w 1M+ users) | @andysz

SF
Joined November 2017
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How do you trade on short AGI timelines? This weekend, I made a graph showing every layer of the AI supply chain and which companies are the most important bottlenecks. (for my personal use, no advice)
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Lonis retweeted
AI’s Physical Bottlenecks: GPU Markets and the Chip Investment Thesis Join us this morning, Thursday, 22nd October: • 9:30 AM PT — Evan Conrad, Co-founder & CEO, SF Compute (@evanjconrad) • 10:15 AM PT — Lonis Hamaili, Managing Partner, Cambrian (@_Lonis_) 𝕏 Chat is Live on Screen, Come Join Us: xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1OxwbnrPV…
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On short AI timelines, most portfolios (incl the S&P) could get nuked, as rising interest rates would compress multiples, and most gains would be concentrated in a few AI model and hardware companies.
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ argues that most investors are unknowingly positioned to lose money if AGI arrives sooner than expected, even those holding the S&P 500: "Most of the assets most people hold is actually not only not exposed to short AI timelines, but are actually negatively exposed." "If AI comes very quickly, it will be very bad for a lot of venture portfolios. Obviously bonds will do very poorly. But also S&P might do quite poorly, because we expect interest rates to rise, and so multiples will come way down." "Currently, multiples are around 20 times earnings, and that can easily go down to 10 or less." "We’re trying to build a portfolio that takes this scenario seriously of short AI timelines, and figure out what are the assets that actually will do well in that world."
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Lonis retweeted
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ explains why he's extremely bearish on software stocks, as AI labs develop internal models far more powerful than anything they release publicly: "We’re super bearish. We’re hyper bearish. If you remove the memory companies, most of the enterprise value in AI currently is just software companies. Chip designers and networking designers. It’s just the first thing the labs will compete with." "There will be this larger and larger chasm between the quality of the models they’re able to release externally and the ones they have internally. They will just have way better models internally that they’ll use to design better chips. It’s very hard to compete with that for any software company." "These software companies are trading at way higher multiples than the physical parts companies. Going forward, we really don’t see that making sense. If you have physical inputs and you need to reinvest, at least you’re worth the higher multiples because you have some type of moat."
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Lonis retweeted
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ explains why a $150 silicon wafer that turns into $22,000 worth of chips could be one of the biggest overlooked investment opportunities in AI: "We’re somewhat less interested in energy because there’s so much latent energy and so much latent tooling you can pull in." "The problem with the semi supply chain, the silicon, is that there’s no latent supply. Everything is almost in short supply. You have all these bidders for these very scarce inputs." "We like to go really far up in the supply chain, so go to suppliers of the suppliers. It’s less priced in there and fewer people are looking. Silicon wafers is one example. A small oligopoly of makers that are making these $150 hyper-thin, hyper-smooth silicon wafers that make up the chips." "They have the least price elastic customer base of any part of the supply chain, because they make a $150 product that turns into $22,000 worth of chip. So they can almost arbitrarily double, triple prices in theory, and it wouldn’t really matter to the end margin of the chip maker."
AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn
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Lonis retweeted
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ argues that most investors are unknowingly positioned to lose money if AGI arrives sooner than expected, even those holding the S&P 500: "Most of the assets most people hold is actually not only not exposed to short AI timelines, but are actually negatively exposed." "If AI comes very quickly, it will be very bad for a lot of venture portfolios. Obviously bonds will do very poorly. But also S&P might do quite poorly, because we expect interest rates to rise, and so multiples will come way down." "Currently, multiples are around 20 times earnings, and that can easily go down to 10 or less." "We’re trying to build a portfolio that takes this scenario seriously of short AI timelines, and figure out what are the assets that actually will do well in that world."
AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn
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AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn
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The whole free world should have access to AI’s equity upside, even in countries without their own AI companies. For instance, European investors, retail and institutional, have been the least successful in the world at capturing AI equity gains
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More thoughts here: cambrianmanagement.ai/ We're a small SF-based firm hiring pilled people who already spend most of their days researching with AI. Reach out if that's you! Usual fine print: this information is directed only at people in the US. It's not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any interest in any fund, and it's not investment advice. Outside the US, any offer is made only privately, to eligible investors, in compliance with local law. Full disclosures in the website.
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explore the solar system & galaxy - every planet, moon, asteroid, comet - almost every spacecraft sol.louisarge.com
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In medieval times, within the arms race of ever more demonic torture devices, some sadistic genius came up with the idea of the Little Ease. This was a prison cell built so small in every dimension that a grown man could not stand upright in it nor lie down at full length nor properly sit. The pain is relentless and without relief and inflicted by one's own body. Prisoners were known to go insane within a few days. A stay at the Little Ease was considered even more cruel than the rack, the thumbscrew, and the other ghoulish machinery of the Tower of London. A breeding pig will spend her whole life in a version of that box. These are social, roaming creatures (more intelligent than dogs) who will never leave this corset of steel. They have been selectively bred to be bigger than their frames can support. Yet we put them in cells so confined that they cannot comfortably sit, and their attempts to do so (for example, by sneaking their limbs into adjacent stalls) reliably lead to fractures and sprains. They cannot sweat, yet have nothing to roll around in to cool themselves off. Except their own manure, which (contrary to the common misconception) they are so averse to (thanks to their strong sense of smell) that new sows will often suffer from constipation to avoid soiling the space from which they eat and sleep. Here is how the writer Matthew Scully described what saw at one of Smithfield’s “gestation barn”: > “Sores, tumors, ulcers, pus pockets, lesions, cysts, bruises, torn ears, swollen legs everywhere. Roaring, groaning, tail biting, fighting, and other “Vices,” as they’re called in the industry. Frenzied chewing on bars and chains, stereotypical “vacuum” chewing on nothing at all, stereotypical rooting and nest building with imaginary straw. And “social defeat,” lots of it, in every third or fourth stall some completely broken being you know is alive only because she blinks and stares up at you … creatures beyond the power of pity to help or indifference to make more miserable, dead to the world except as heaps of flesh into which the [insemination] rod may be stuck once more and more flesh reproduced.” — The Save Our Bacon Act is trying to unroll the few state protections we have against this barbaric cruelty - for example California’s Prop 12 - which banned the sale of pork from pigs kept in gestation crates. It’s incredibly important we don’t end up with this sort of federal preemption. SOB will not only kill the most important animal welfare related laws in the US of the past decade, but more importantly, it will also restrict ALL future legislative progress (aka how the animal welfare movement has gotten its biggest wins). The Senate is currently deciding whether to add the SOB Act to the Farm Bill. With relatively little money now, we can discourage the most pivotal senators in the Ag committee from backing this amendment. Defeating this bill is even more important given the amount of philanthropic funding I expect to come online in the next year or two. It will plausibly be over 10x more expensive to repeal SOB than to prevent it from passing in the first place. All that money that could be spent transforming our society's relationship to mass animal suffering will instead have to be spent just getting us back to where we are right now. That's why money spent now fighting this bill (and I mean right NOW) is so effective. If you’re in a position to donate six figures, please DM me.
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First episode of the Próspera Podcast is out - with @waitbutwhy - Tim's impressions from his Próspera trip - What Próspera learned from the US Framers - Where Tim and Erick think Próspera can go from here Listen here: youtu.be/GzQxmWp2TYQ
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Next Q: What's the delta between current booked orders, and what we should see if demand exceeds 15GW of additional compute over the coming 12 months? Note: data here could be off. You should prob get a @SemiAnalysis_ fund tier if you care about more detailed, accurate data
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After all, who amongst us has not looked at the consistency of the transformer model loss curves and thought, "yeah okay, but how do I make a trade on this?" So I decided to dig into it, full post: loniss.com/cambrian-thesis?v…
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