Commentary on fintwit. Don't be offended if I don't agree with you because disagreement is what makes a market.
Joined March 2014
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Blair Jensen retweeted
NDX has fallen hard since its Oct. 6 top. But the numbers of its components above their own 100MAs is rising. Usually I watch this for bearish divergences at tops. This is weird to see it showing a bullish divergence.
Blair Jensen retweeted
On Oct. 22, the share price of OIH fell 6.6% intraday, taking out the prior low and allowing nervous holders to claim that "key support" had been broken (green line). Now it has made up all of that drop and is moving higher. The stock market likes to go after those who can be picked off easily.
My mom used to broil steaks too. Hers had a good crust and the fat was super crispy. The secret was top rack and no fear of flames pouring port of the oven from the fat charring. 😂
A steak broiled in the oven is the very first way I ever had steak because that’s how my mom cooked them.
Takes about 20 minutes and what it lacks in crust gets made up for in juiciness and the way the fat on the outside of the steak renders to crackling crisp.
Every now and then, I get a hankering for steak this way.
Blair Jensen retweeted
Neat trick I stumbled upon to quickly change your algorithm:
Bookmarking the kind of material you want to see.
A few weeks ago I started building a new GrokBot of heterodox health advise, and to do it, I started bookmarking a bunch of posts by bro-docs and bro-scientists.
100 bookmarks later, and esoteric health posts are my entire timeline.
So, if your timeline has too much politics, or pop culture, or whatever. Just start bookmarking. You’ll have a new experience in no time.
How the market reacts at the upper trendline will tell the tale. A break above would be strong evidence we're seeing an AI bubble following the internet bubble path.
DB continues their caution from last week on the Tech trade:
The rotation into Tech has advanced considerably, and the near-term risk-reward no longer looks favorable. Last week, we highlighted that the rotation that began in late July—the fifth in the past two years—was approaching the upper boundary of its long-run trend channel, a level from which it has reversed several times previously.
Tactically, the potential upside is now limited to roughly 4 percentage points of further outperformance before reaching the top of the channel, versus potentially 16 percentage points of relative downside if the historical pattern of rotations near the channel’s boundaries holds. Prior rotations have featured inverted-V reversals rather than gradual turns.
Blair Jensen retweeted
MS: Past recessions have historically occurred as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates above nominal growth. With nominal growth nearly 3% above the policy rate,
the Fed appears to have room to hike before meaningfully impacting growth.
Blair Jensen retweeted
These are the golden years:
- Morning cuddles before school
- Sticky hands grabbing your face
- Snacks every 20 minutes
- Tiny voices yelling “Dad!”
- Bedtime stories that never end
- Random hugs
- Toys covering every room
- Laughing until their stomachs hurt
- Falling asleep on your shoulder
One day, the house will be quiet.
And we’ll miss every bit of this chaos.
More evidence we're following the internet bubble
S&P 500 $SPY closed at a record high.
With twice as many lows as highs on the NYSE.
Here's every date the S&P closed at a record and the NYSE low/high ratio was > 2:
6/22/29...2.1
12/3/99...2.0
12/21/99...4.2
12/22/99...4.1
12/23/99...2.3
12/29/99...2.4
10/6/26...2.6
We should be comparing breadth and price to NYAD and nasdaq in 1999. AI bubble is looking like the internet bubble to me.
Blair Jensen retweeted
Don't know how many permanent jobs data centers generate, but this could actually be a plus for local communities that don't want their lives up-ended.
Data centers provide a huge amount of property tax revenue but relatively little strain on schools, housing and roads.
Blair Jensen retweeted
2000 vs. 2026: Compare and contrast the outperformance by the NASDAQ relative to the S&P 500: (a) 1995-2000 and (b) 2021-2026. Click image to enlarge.
Blair Jensen retweeted
Gold is due for an important mid-cycle low, as the half-period harmonic of its larger 13-1/2 month cycle. How gold does during the second half of the cycle will tell us about what lies ahead for 2027. Bulls will want to see right translation.
In 1998 NYAD started diverging in May, two years before the top. The market felt euphoric much like $SOX now. Today doesn't feel the same because people have crypto and precious metals dragging down their portfolios.
Blair Jensen retweeted
$AMD classic Stage 3 action. Great news yet the stock doesn't make new highs.
Buying the best stock in a weak sector (semiconductors) is a good way to trap capital at best or lose capital at worst.
A terrible stock in a hot sector will often go up, while the best stock in a weak sector will not go up.
