25+ years trading the markets. Don’t believe the bull shit, forging a career can be extremely rewarding…but it takes time, persistence and discipline.
Australia
Joined September 2007
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Another example of how messed up our market is.
I run a couple of smartlists to keep track of stocks with momo (Mkt cap > $250m and move up/down >5%).
XJO down 30 or so, last I looked there was 1 name up over 5% and just under 100 down > 5%.
Plenty of mining names (and others) 50-70% off May highs....and almost zero mention of the carnage in the media because hey XJO only -25.
If we do get a decent flush out that drags the fund loving top end defensives down with it ...and takes the already sold off names on one more leg down, I reckon we might be on!
Just need the media and the Uber driver to starts talking about it.
#asx
I'm sure I've forgotten more than I know, but I can't recall a market quite like this one in the last 25 years.
The difference between how it appears on the surface compared to what you see under the hood is absurd. #asx
Some low life sending friend request as me on Discord now. Please ignore. If they are asking you for money please send it to me instead. Cheers!
Excellent example today as to why it's important to stay on top of related peers when live news drops.
AirTrunk IPO delay news hit Bloomie at 3.06pm...the really switched on players knew (or quickly found out) that SKS was in line for the engineering work. Given the debacle with Firmus and carnage to MGH there was only one way this was going to go. SKS started dumping on volume pretty well instantly. It had another $1.36 move in it by close.
SXE, one of the obvious peers (and one that had been performing pretty well intraday on broker target increases), didn't hit new lows until 3.13pm. It dumped over 50c.
What else? The larger the carnage the bigger the net. TEA got attention. More diversified but by that stage punters wanted blood. New lows there at 3.18pm. 50c more in that by close.
GNP next. Even less closely related but definitely in the basket. Breaks significant intraday support at 3.25pm. It dumped another 40c.
Moral of the story?
1. Know your stocks...they are your tools
2. Don't give up on a live news trade idea because you think you've missed your ideal entry.
3. Speed is key. Other traders are working through the same process....beat them.
#asx
So you know you’re in a whole new world when you’re on the phone to a trading colleague and have to apologise for sounding a bit distracted…because you have your phone in one hand and a stick in the other trying to move on the brown tree snake in the shed.
Choppy markets can be a pain to trade.
Setups don't follow through. Breakouts fail. Random intraday spikes and dumps stop you out. The temptation is to start changing the way you trade. Sometimes you need to.
But sometimes the setup that your past results proved has a valid edge still has that edge... it's just the wrong tool for the current market.
It's why one-trick ponies rarely last very long in this game.
Keep building a toolbox of setups that work in different conditions. Just as importantly, develop the awareness to know when to change tools.
Or when to walk away.
I don't believe either option comes naturally to a trader. Definitely not this one.
Reporting season was exhausting!
August feels like half the market is in play. Results everywhere, Day 2+ set ups piling up, and stocks gapping and driving (or reversing) in ranges we simply weren't seeing a few years ago.
But more opportunities doesn't mean you should be trading more.
This is probably when I have to remind myself most to be selective and patient, particularly around the open. Books can be thin and volatile and what looks like an obvious trade at 10:05 can look very different 30 minutes later.
You don't have to trade every result. You don't even have to trade every good set up. (I've been very guilty of opportunity FOMO at times throughout my career)
Pick the ones that suit the way YOU trade, where the risk/reward makes sense, and don't be afraid to wait. The best trade might be later in the day, tomorrow, or several days down the track.
Waiting has never come naturally to me, but one of my favourite trading quotes remains:
“Taking no position is a position.”
Alan McGrath retweeted
Today's banter today only a trader would understand:
(After stopping out of a stock only to see it rally hard)
Trader 1: No crying in the casino
Trader 2: Only in the carpark
Trader 3: ...of the computer shop!
#asx
With the USD/JPY joint intervention last week getting a lot of focus, I thought this CNBC interview from a couple of months ago (after the USDJPY last got above 160) was an interesting watch. Becoming clear the levels at which the market may start to panic.
youtube.com/watch?v=fRcCueIT…
Alan McGrath retweeted
The bond market is out of control.
The US 30Y Note Yield is now up to 5.27%, its highest level since June 2007.
This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in 2020.
At the current pace, we are on track to see US 30Y mortgage rates exceed 7.50% by year-end.
And to top it all off, Fed Chair Warsh is now adamant that the market should operate independently, without Fed guidance.
Even without rate hikes or Fed guidance, the market is sending rates higher; operating exactly how Fed Chair Warsh wants it to operate.
The bond market will soon be the most talked about component of global capital markets.
This simply is not sustainable.
As I’ve said before, “Don’t be shit” is probably my simplest piece of trading advice.
Clearly I forgot to apply that philosophy to my Traders Edge website maintenance… 😄
I’ve just realized that the contact form has been broken since an update months ago.
If you’ve tried contacting me over the past few months and got absolutely nothing back, I owe you an apology. I only discovered this week it wasn’t delivering messages.
It’s fixed now (I hope).
