Computational Social Science and #reproducibility @gesis_org 🐘 @arnim@mas.to. Opinions my own!
Honolulu, HI
Joined May 2009
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Arnim Bleier retweeted
The ideal outcome for science isn't a couple of labs using proprietary models and millions of dollars to crack trophy problems, it's to have millions of AI-aided human scientists who follow their curiosity and become way more ambitious
Arnim Bleier retweeted
I wish people would notice that the safety scare is not driven by people outside of the big labs, but directly from their leadership. The "whistleblowers" are plants that are amplified from within the labs, and supported by the CEOs. The goal is to capture the regulators, which will not shut down the big labs, but turn them into an oligopoly and outlaw decentralized AI.
Arnim Bleier retweeted
> Be with our kid, keep our lifestyle, never have our boy cry again because of "work"
Prioritize this above everything else! Great move and wish you guys all the best!
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Unlock trapped coding-agent traces for safe sharing, analysis, and model training via
@huggingface 🤗 hub
👇
opentraces.ai/
Arnim Bleier retweeted
People who like sharing agent traces. I've just published all my pi-mono coding agent sessions on @huggingface so you get to laugh at or pwn me!
huggingface.co/datasets/badl…
I suggest you do the same, see thread below. Let's make this a community effort. Here's pi-share-hf:
github.com/badlogic/pi-share…
If you are working on tools that help identify PII/sensitive data, get in touch. The better the classification is, the more willing people will be to share their traces.
Arnim Bleier retweeted
we as software engineers are becoming beholden to a handful of well funded corportations. while they are our "friends" now, that may change due to incentives. i'm very uncomfortable with that.
i believe we need to band together as a community and create a public, free to use repository of real-world (coding) agent sessions/traces. I want small labs, startups, and tinkerers to have access to the same data the big folks currently gobble up from all of us. So we, as a community, can do what e.g. Cursor does below, and take back a little bit of control again.
Who's with me?
cursor.com/blog/real-time-rl…
Arnim Bleier retweeted
You change one word on a loan application: the religion. The LLM rejects it.
Change it back? Approved.
The model never mentions religion. It just frames the same debt ratio differently to justify opposite decisions.
We built a pipeline to find these hidden biases 🧵1/13
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Okay so, we just found that over 50 papers published at @Neurips 2025 have AI hallucinations
I don't think people realize how bad the slop is right now
It's not just that researchers from @GoogleDeepMind, @Meta, @MIT, @Cambridge_Uni are using AI - they allowed LLMs to generate hallucinations in their papers and didn't notice at all.
It's insane that these made it through peer review👇
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Normally, it's:
1) write a paper & submit
3) get reviews (~3 months)
4) revise paper & resubmit
5) wait for response (~3 months)
...what if we could simulate this process in minutes?
Could we fix issues?
Anticipate misconceptions?
Get ideas for new analyses/experiments?
1/
Arnim Bleier retweeted
💥 I’m starting something new inside OpenAI! It’s called OpenAI for Science, and the goal is to build the next great scientific instrument: an AI-powered platform that accelerates scientific discovery.
Scientific work shouldn’t come at the cost of stressful work environments. @DeutscheWelle & @derspiegel investigate abuse at Germany’s #MPG. Just an isolated case?🤔
#OpenScience #ScienceCulture #Abuse
youtube.com/watch?v=n5nEd600…
Arnim Bleier retweeted
It's 2025 and most content is still written for humans instead of LLMs. 99.9% of attention is about to be LLM attention, not human attention.
E.g. 99% of libraries still have docs that basically render to some pretty .html static pages assuming a human will click through them. In 2025 the docs should be a single your_project.md text file that is intended to go into the context window of an LLM.
Repeat for everything.
Arnim Bleier retweeted
📈Out today in @PNASNews!📈
In a large pre-registered experiment (n=25,982), we find evidence that scaling the size of LLMs yields sharply diminishing persuasive returns for static political messages.
🧵:
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Are LLMs biased when they write about political issues?
We just released IssueBench – the largest, most realistic benchmark of its kind – to answer this question more robustly than ever before.
Long 🧵with spicy results 👇
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Last week we released s1 - our simple recipe for sample-efficient reasoning & test-time scaling.
We’re releasing 𝐬𝟏.𝟏 trained on the 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝟏𝐊 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 but performing much better by using r1 instead of Gemini traces. 60% on AIME25 I.
Details in 🧵1/9
DeepSeek r1 is exciting but misses OpenAI’s test-time scaling plot and needs lots of data.
We introduce s1 reproducing o1-preview scaling & performance with just 1K samples & a simple test-time intervention.
📜arxiv.org/abs/2501.19393
Arnim Bleier retweeted
New paper: What happens once AIs make humans obsolete?
Even without AIs seeking power, we argue that competitive pressures will fully erode human influence and values.
gradual-disempowerment.ai/
with @jankulveit @raymondadouglas @AmmannNora @degerturann @DavidSKrueger 🧵
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Big news! We figured out a way to run mybinder.org instances about 5x cheaper, and in a much simpler way. As of today 2i2c.mybinder.org serves about 70% of Binder's sessions, running on a single VM on Hetzner!
2i2c.org/blog/2025/binder-si…
Arnim Bleier retweeted
Clearly someone needs to try this at scale – pick 1000 published scientific papers at random, ask o1 or o1-pro to look for errors, and see what turns up. I'm going to give it a shot. Anyone interested in helping out?
(Incidentally, h/t @gibbnicholas for also noticing that o1-pro can spot the math error in the black plastics paper: xitter.cf/gibbnicholas/status/18…)
