5th Place in US Investing Championship 2025 +229.4% | 20K+ Enhanced Growth M.S. Finance 🎓 | Analyst @TheOptionCartel
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Joined July 2020
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Let me break down my two trades on $MU because this has been my BIGGEST win of the year yet!
This trade was the perfect alignment of macro + theme + individual RS.
The 1st trade was off the weekly breakout in late April, after noticing that the ENTIRE sector was in theme and running. Names like $STX, $WDC, and $SNDK were making massive weekly breakouts off of the short consolidation period.
My strength has always been pattern recognition and identifying high probability setups, not getting that picture perfect entry.
I added into my original position once and within ten trading days my contracts went from 19.15 -> 150.00 for over +680% in returns.
I ended up adding rolls to catch the push into $818, but gave some back on the sharp pullback.
But the most important part here is that I didn't take $MU off my watchlist.
A name that has RS in a strong sector will probably continue to be strong and I'd rather trade these names instead of looking for another setup.
The 2nd trade was taken at the EOW on a Friday and while $MU's daily does not look pretty, I utilized the sector to gauge the health of the trend.
$WDC, $SNDK and $STX all had more convincing inside bars. Every name trades a bit differently, so you have to analyze the broader sector too.
The most recent PA with the large daily flag shows you that with the increased volatility, price could undercut EMAs and won't be perfect.
But what does the recent action tell you?
-> quick reaction off an undercut of the daily 9EMA + slight 21EMA
-> reclaim of the daily 9EMA and closed above
-> weekly candle ends up being a doji near the highs
This trade sums up my ENTIRE process, I focus on:
- daily + weekly closes aligned with volume for confirmation
- macro + theme working together to support the technical story
- let runners run as momentum ramps up
These types of large moves take time to develop so it's all about having patience and actually let them set up without getting in preemptively.
$MU is my highest conviction long right now.
Let's compare it to some of these other memory/semi adjacent names:
$SNDK - Similar weekly consolidation where price really launched into a breakout after a bullish weekly print. The push higher was also on extremely healthy volume too, that's how you know it's legit.
$WDC - Does that weekly structure look familiar? The PA + breakout is almost a mirror.
$BE - I know this is technically energy, but look at the weekly breakout. This name actually has the closest type of PA compared to $MU where we get a weekly doji into an aggressive push to the upside.
I am expecting $MU to follow suit as it's clearly one of the leaders, if not THE leader, in memory. On top of all this, $DRAM continues to skip numbers and make new highs with $MU as 24% of the weighting.
IMO this isn't a question of if, but when $MU will start to make new highs.
yikes
BREAKING: Intel stock, $INTC, crashes over -22% after reporting weaker than expected earnings.
Intel blamed weak earnings on "softness in the PC market."
artisanwill retweeted
Used to lose money trading stocks. People advised to diversify portfolio. Now i am losing money in gold, silver, bitcoin, mutual funds and stocks.
artisanwill retweeted
A lot of similarities to early/mid 2021 these last couple of months. Back in 2021 all the shitcos got smoked LONG before the big indices ever rolled over.
Setups which would normally produce a major low were providing a small relief pop only. That happened early and then it was just a bloodbath. While indices marched higher, many accounts were blown as their favorite growth names got slaughtered. The frustration was extreme. Many people quit trading.
I’ve heard a ton of similar stories the last few months. Swing accounts and long term portfolios decimated. For many it is too late. There are times to aggressively put your capital to work and times when it makes sense to protect it.
Even my top setups on individual names have only been yielding a quick relief pop the last month or so. It isn’t a healthy environment.
If you still have capital left then I would consider yourself lucky as many cannot say the same. Wait for a meaningful liquidation break in the market and then evaluate putting capital to work
I haven’t been posting much because there’s not really much to say or do right now.
I repost content that others are posting because I could not say it better.
Sometimes it’s okay to slow things down, and I think we often forget that.
$QCOM is a semi name that's going to stay on my radar if the market starts to bounce
large support zone at the daily 200SMA + weekly 50EMA confluence
$QCOM is only down around -18% from recent highs, while previous leaders like $INTC are down -30%
As long as this daily 200SMA continues to hold, I think this name could be building up a monster move
artisanwill retweeted
I don’t want you to feel dumb if you’re losing right now…this market is very very hard. You’re not a failure or anything. Some of the very best guys I know got smacked the last few weeks/months…lots of cuts & bruises. All I’m asking of you is do NOT let losses compound. Just eat the punches like a man if you have to. But just stay alive.
HUGE opportunities into EOY will be plentiful imo. But you have to be alive to play them.
artisanwill retweeted
a former jane street trader describes a very expensive problem: doing all the research, building a strategy, then getting bored when it tells you to do nothing.
“The problem was, most of the time the data told him to do nothing.”
so the trader starts dabbling in other trades just to feel money being put at risk again.
agustin lebron, the laws of trading.
Was that the washout the market needed?
$SPY bouncing off daily 50 with breadth improving
$QQQ potential undercut of daily 50 + $NQ daily hammer
A lot of software names really strong today like $TEM, $NOW, $MSFT, and $TOST with crypto names RS too: $CRCL, $HOOD, $COIN & $MSTR
If these are the types of names that set up next, I would be a lot more confident on a more sustainable leg up rather than the previous lock out with $DELL & $HPE being the leaders.
artisanwill retweeted
Half of Qullamaggie's losses came in streaks of 10 or more in a row.
Typical gap between two winners was just 1 loser. But 316 of the 631 losers came in 20 runs of 10+.
If you want to make it in swing trading, get used to being a loser
It’s so crazy to me because I’ve ALWAYS found that when I put MORE attention into charts and trading, my performance gets worse.
Getting sucked into focusing on the charts every day is sooo easy but probably the worst thing that can happen.
More pressure only leads to long term stress and is not sustainable at all
September really beat me up, both financially and mentally. Since October, I’ve decided to keep practicing, but also work on other things alongside trading.
When trading was my only focus, I felt like I had to produce good results at all costs because I needed it to work. Now that part of my focus is going into other things I can make progress on too, the pressure to perform has finally eased. I no longer feel like I have to trade no matter what.
The market has BEEN HARD this year.
I think if you end the year a little red/green or even flat, that is a HUGE win.
I see way too much posting about not making enough or being late and while it's a good driver to work hard, it's not sustainable.
You'll end up forcing what you want the market to do onto setups that are subpar.
I've found myself doing this too and it's something I am trying to get out of.
There is no timeline on success, and good things naturally take time.