A.W. (@aw_cfa) header
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value investor. cfa charterholder. former butler. believer in gravity.

Joined July 2009
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For six straight months, paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation — for the first time since early 2023. In other words, real wages are now shrinking year-over-year thanks to the Iran War.
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🚢High freight rates are wiping out the U.S. soybean price advantage over Brazil, even during the U.S. harvest. U.S. Gulf soybeans are ~$0.30/bu cheaper, but shipping to China costs ~$0.60/bu MORE. Result: Brazilian soybeans are ~$0.30/bu cheaper delivered to China. #cmdtyView
🤝 Paid partnership
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Education & health services, professional & business services, and government recorded the highest number of job openings in September @BLS_gov
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A.W. retweeted
Social Security may have to cut retirement benefits in six years, according to the latest projections. cnb.cx/4iohGnv
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trump’s war w/ iran: great for big oil, not so much for the average american paying that price at the pump…
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"Over the last two weeks we have seen episodes of sharp selloffs in tech stocks and the dollar at the same time. We have been arguing for a while that the risk-off properties of the dollar cannot be taken for granted in the event of an AI-driven correction in the market:" DB's George Saravelos
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Higher prices may be taking a bite out of diners’ wallets … only 39% of adults reported visiting a restaurant at least once a week this year, down from 47% in 2022 and 53% in 2019 @DataArbor
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Toyota, Honda, Nissan slash China output as gasoline car market shrinks Japan automakers seek new strategies as Chinese consumers shift to EVs s.nikkei.com/47P3oWY
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A.W. retweeted
CSIS analysis shows that some economies have experienced disproportionate growth in imports from China and in exports to the U.S. since 2024, a signal that these countries may be serving as “connectors” of U.S. and Chinese economic activity, writes @HughGrantChap. Read: bit.ly/4f3eKdJ
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In the final days before the midterm elections, Democrats have turned alleged graft in Trump’s White House into one of the defining issues of their campaigns — and polls show the message is getting through ft.trib.al/ptD1s3D
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A.W. retweeted
📊 Introducing the Axios-@CivicScience AI Sentiment Index The new monthly index tracks Americans' views across six measures: AI's effects on quality of life, society, jobs and economic growth, plus support for AI development and new data centers. axios.com/2026/10/30/ai-sent…
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Cracks are appearing in America’s debt-laden $10tn AI infrastructure boom as project delays, public backlash and shaky investor confidence bring a reckoning for the data centre build-out underpinning the US economy ft.trib.al/zO3Yb7W
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A.W. retweeted
Anthropic has more cash than almost every company in America. The nearly 6-year-old artificial intelligence lab disclosed on Monday in an S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it had $112.4 billion in cash, plus another $19.3 billion in short-term investments, as of June 30. Read more: cnb.cx/4f0cFPJ
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Spending on data centers & computers is now America's single largest investment by far: 50% larger than single-family home construction, 3x factories, or 6x apartments" @JosephPolitano
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The Milwaukee Brewers ended a 57-year championship drought to capture their first World Series title 🏆 The Rays extend theirs to 29 seasons 😞 The Guardians are now tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the longest drought in the four major sports at 78 seasons
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Lake Powell just added nearly 200 billion gallons of water in the last 8 days, the largest 8-day volume gain for the reservoir outside spring snowmelt on record. Amazing.
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No team outside the top 10 in preseason odds has ever won the NBA title The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers both began this season outside the top 10
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Since 2019, tennis is up 72% among kids 6–12. Golf is up 55%. Parents finally figured out which sports lead to success and can be played for life.
Walter Isaacson asks Peter Thiel what humans can uniquely do in the AI era. Thiel: "We're very relational… these relational dimensions will become more important." When knowledge is worth $0, the only career skills that matter: - networking / social calibration - persuasion (sales) - curiosity (harnessing AI) - taste (curation) - storytelling - grit - golfing with clients (or equivalent) We'll get so sick of a fake world that we'll go back to doing business like it's the 1800s. A handshake at the local saloon.
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What is life like at different levels of GDP per capita? In this new chart I visualised it for 12 different dimensions.
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Around the world, it now takes more years of full-time pay to buy a typical home. Source: reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful…
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