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48 on the wonderlic, ball knower

Joined October 2022
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“We didn’t stop to consider” when it’s been the only thing most football fans have ever considered re: run/ pass frequency. It’s almost religiously ingrained!
I firmly believe that the reason we got into that "throw every down because EPA go brrrrr" era a while back is because we didn't stop to consider that the reason why passing EPA went brrrr in the first place is because the run game set it up to go brrrr.
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team that was marginally less stupid and wasted less early downs with running plays won, all is right in the world (please for the love of god can someone with multiple brain cells start making these decisions)
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no, I never played football retweeted
This is the craziest thing I've ever seen in football. I don't know what's dumber. The Lions snap it early or the Bucs not using the last timeout to try to win the game.
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The analytics community has flat out won the argument on 4th downs (thanks @benbbaldwin, @surrender_index, et all). It’s a remarkable success, and one that needs to be replicated with an under addressed GLARING inefficiency —the pervasiveness and stupidity of early down runs.
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Less drastically, if the top offenses cut 10 early down runs per game and maintained similar efficiency throwing, they would be saving about 3 points per game. That’s a ton! It’s about the difference in overall team quality between the Lions and the Steelers, per betting markets
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Any discussion on this topic needs to start with acknowledging the huge cost of business as usual. I’m open to hearing a good data driven argument (no vibes based conjecture!) that externalities of early down runs make up for this gigantic gap—but I haven’t heard it yet.
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no, I never played football retweeted
the entire league having the chance to get lamar jackson for two 1st round picks and a new contract and no one acting on it will never make sense
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This is refreshing and obviously correct! However: The Browns were 7th in first down rushing frequency (40%) last year, despite a -0.045 epa per play on first down runs vs. averaging +0.161 on first down passes. Put it into practice!
"You're not going to establish the run first?" Kevin Stefanski: "That's a fallacy- you don't have to establish the run to throw it [..] play action, it's been proven, that you don't need to have a good run attack or be running the ball [..] there's a lot of good data behind it"
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