Crypto Dan

If you're not buying till 50k, you need to realise what you're hoping for is a huge bid wall of institutions, HNW individuals, and OG whales to get eaten through by whatever sellers remain, after the worst of the Saylor situation has already occurred for the forseeable future, while over the next 12 months, hundreds of billions of dollars from early AI investors, funds, and team allocations gets unlocked and begins analysing the market for where to allocate that hasn't already gone exponential meanwhile the 4 year cycle bottom is set for October, only 4 months away, with everyone aiming for price to go a little lower a little later aiming for 50k would make sense if there wasn't a ginormous bid wall defending price. this same size of bid wall is exactly what occurred at every cycle bottom for BTC in it's history. if your argument for 50k is 'price keeps hitting 60k, it's ready to break, support gets weaker at every touch' you better make sure that opinion is backed by evidence, not theory, because the bids at 60k have only gotten stronger after each touch. this is because the larger contributor to bids isn't even how low price goes, it's not technicals, it's proximity to October being the 4 year cycle bottom. The closer we get, the more large players begin bidding for the next cycle and thus the more bids begin appearing. The way you buy bottoms is you don't actually try to buy the bottom, you buy when price feels low enough that the upside is assymetric, because that's realistically as close as you're going to get. Waiting for 50k, when there is a huge sum of evidence that 60k is already deep value, is greedy thinking and is extremely unlikely to be rewarded by the market. And incase you're still thinking 'this Daniel guy is an idiot', keep in mind I've been calling BTC bottoms for 7 years now: teapawt.org/cryptodan19/status/107… GLHF

As one cycle ends, another cycle begins for $BTC

The reason stocks are going parabolic while crypto is dying comes down to a combination of factors: - stock bull is driven by mag 7 reallocation of large war chests of cash/bonds --> AI buildout. This massively increases velocity of money, and leads to continous significant rev growth for AI adjacent companies -> higher valuations - crypto is driven by QE/low rates, as investors move out on the risk curve due to bond yields being crushed and borrowing becomes cheap. neither are likely to happen anytime soon as inflation remains elevated from higher velocity of money + high oil prices w/ iran war - mstr ponzi is slowly unwinding and has passed the equilibrium where we are now in a negative death spiral. saylor put himself in a corner where the only way out is to sell more BTC -> lower btc prices -> more BTC must be sold. - AI buildout is accelerating the proximity to a real quantum threat for BTC. semi quantum proof alternatives like ZEC lead to outflows from BTC seeking safety - AI is the dominant story and retail is chasing AI stocks with capital they would've previously allocated to Crypto. Without strong accumulation $TOTAL slowly trends lower - as crypto<> stocks become more integrated and the investor cohorts overlap, fundamentals become driven more by revenue growth and tokenholder alignment. with almost all of the best founders launching companies outside of Crypto, B-tier crypto startups are the only real options for investors and see minimal flows compared to tradfi equivalents. - within the largest narrative AI, majority of value accrual goes to frontier models like gpt/anthropic and companies supporting the physical infrastructure buildout, neither of which exist within Crypto

Last week I bought $PENGU at a $440M market cap, up about 50% I bought because it was forming a tight accumulation range at it's prior lows with BTC looking bottomed as well $PENGU is one of the only major memecoins directly tied to a real consumer IP brand with global retail distribution, with Pudgy Penguins toys sold through major retailers including Walmart, Amazon, Target/Smyths-style channels, and other international outlets. On top of that, projects always hold back announcements in bear markets and wait for better market conditions to drop them, and I expect Luca to do exactly that

Seen a lot of confusion why Saylor doesn't just wait to buy more BTC during the bear market What people aren't understanding is the only reason Saylor's gameplan works is because he is price agnostic Price agnosticism is a feature, and a necessity, not a bug. Think about those KOL's who become the main figure shilling a particular coin. What mindsets do they embody? What stories do they tell holders and future buyers of their token? Your #1 job as a shill of your token is to convince those who haven't bought that they are still EARLY. Why do you think every holder of every alt ever has retarded high price targets, and never talks publicly about selling, only buying? This is how the shill game works. And Saylor's game is no different. The moment Saylor starts adding in price discretion to his accumulation, it is a signal to the market that prices are no longer favourable for buying at the current price. It would mark a significant top (maybe cycle top) for BTC, as holders would panic sell, and future buyers would hold off from buying. On top of this, there's three more reasons why discretion would be a net negative: - Business 101: Close em while they're hot In business, you would never tell a high ticket client to 'come back later when the product is on a sale'. It's actually common business practice to AVOID your customers expecting sales, as they'll just hold off from buying until you give one. And by the time the discount comes around, half the lead flow will forget your business even exists, or worse, not even want your service anymore. Saylor's raising of capital is no different from any other business - to maximise capital raised he MUST take capital when it's ready to buy - (Close em while they're hot!) - It's hard to raise in a bear By the time BTC is on a 'discount', FUD on BTC returns and it makes the job of raising capital significantly more difficult for Saylor. Raising capital is a feedback loop like any other - higher prices beget more capital raised, which makes prices go higher. To maximise capital raised he must lean into this flywheel, not against it. - **Saylor dictates institutional accumulation strategies** Saylor being price agnostic sets the standard for how institutions broadly go about their BTC accumulation. Because of Saylor's influence, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy where how Saylor approaches accumulation affects how others do, which thus affects the type of price action BTC experiences. If you want an asset to appreciate long term, an asset which valuation is largely driven by it's network effect and belief consensus, you MUST buy it without discretion. Why? BTC's status as a store of value, as a competitor to Gold, and as a part of any wealthy persons diversified portfolio, is completely contingent upon it's price action. Imagine if BTC never recovered from the FTX collapse. Basically none of the institutions today would've bought, even though the fundamentals of BTC are technically the same. This is because Bitcoin is a belief driven asset - the more people that believe in it, the more the story becomes true. This is the value of the network effect: And Saylor understands this very clearly. Through price agnostic BTC accumulation he is forcing into reality a global shift of how institutions view Bitcoin - and thus how they go about allocating it to their portfolios. Buying BTC regardless of any price allows him to maximise the capital he can raise for buying BTC, as institutions feel safe buying it at 100k if it is going to 1m. The more capital Saylor puts into Bitcoin, the higher the price goes, further cementing the story of Bitcoin as one that every wealthy person needs to participate in. It's a similar situation to when people say 'fake it till you make it'. You can engineer your ideal reality into existence if you convince enough people. The story of Bitcoin is compelling for the entire world to own, you just need to paint the chart, install the correct beliefs, and offer easy forms of access that lead to every wealthy person eventually owning it..

18 reasons why crypto is about to go parabolic